WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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I haven’t seen MJO charts in the last couple days, but I’d agree with @bluewave that it’s very likely the wave will go around the horn into 8-1-2. Doesn’t make sense for the wave to die as it’s getting to the best SSTs supporting convection.
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Your mileage may vary
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I’m certainly not calling it a L now. Just that game probably hurts them least to lose. Probably. Just not the Steelers please…
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It’s at the very end of the EPS and GEFS, so obviously YMMV, but you can see the start of the process shown on the weeklies and GEFSX to get us a trough in the east. That’s what I will be watching this week.
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#1 seed going to be tough. Probably still doable if they just lose to SF in the last 5 games?
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Rejoice weenies, winter may be saved after all!
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Although Will keeps us apprised of the euro weeklies every day, I hadn’t looked at the GEFS extended in awhile. Seems like a near carbon copy of the evolution shown by the euro. After mid-month, the west coast trough begins to retrograde, our eastern CONUS ridge begins getting undercut, and eventually we end up with pretty gorgeous pattern after Xmas.
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Lock the end of happy hour dafuq in
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That’s January thaw time. Maybe we can get a little something in February??
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It’s December 2nd!!
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Looking at @PrinceFrederickWx’s stats in the panic room makes me more dubious about some sort of early snow = snowy winter correlation. And even if there is a correlation, I’m dubious it’s indicative of the whole season. I just think in snowy years it snows more often and with heavier falls. And even that isn’t a super strong guide. This year probably isn’t going to be a 09-10 redux just because that was at least 1 in 150 year event, not because we had an inch December 5, 2009. A couple of the best analogs to this year had AN snowfall, but concentrated in a fairly epic 2-4 weeks. I still personally think we all get on the board this month at least once, but the bulk of the snow, no matter how much we get, is pretty sure to be in January and February (as it almost always is).
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Still a chance for Hoffman to get his 1”!
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Solar forcing going to be crappy for another few years. Might want to look forward to like 30-31.
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Maybe we can squeeze something in during late January/early February before the inevitable Nino March torch??
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That said…I do think the MJO and strat vortex disruption imply cold will get here at some point. And I think some of that should start to be seen the second half of this month. Of course JB’s analogs are always loltastic.
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JB’s been saying that since the 70s
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Maybe some members trying to kill the MJO prematurely in phase 6 or 7 vs continuing into 7-8-1? Dunno, just guessing/grasping at straws. Strat PV orientation doesn’t seem to jive with cold air in western North America, so not sure what would produce that.
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Pretty gross look at the end of all 3 ensemble systems. Hope they’re either wrong or that’s a transient look.
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Acceptable
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Well the mean temps shows it has been colder on balance. November 22 just had a more intense, but short, cold period to end the month. I think it’s probably true that the suburbs and rural areas have had more subfreezing days so far.
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10 freezing or sub freezing lows at BWI to date, which is actually 1 behind 2022. But 2022 had an average November low temp of 40.1 compared to this years 35.2.
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Happy winter!
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One of the potential wild cards this winter was the very high stratospheric water vapor from the Hunga Tonga eruption. Water vapor strongly emits thermal IR radiation, which serves to cool the atmosphere in the winter stratosphere where little or no sunlight reaches. So potentially, that could lead to a colder and stronger strat winter polar vortex, that if coupled with the troposphere, would encourage +AO. Obviously it’s early, but the strat vortex is going to be quite weak most likely at least well into December and potentially beyond.
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2023 Mid-Atlantic Garden, Lawn, and Other Green Stuff Thread
WxUSAF replied to mattie g's topic in Mid Atlantic
Did my final mow/leaf mulching this evening. Got it nice and short so next week's HECS looks primo!
