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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    Someday I hope that every ravens win doesnt come with a cost of losing a key player for an extended period of time.
  2. WxUSAF
    Maue just tweeted that things are coming back up, but I imagine it will be awhile before more products are flowing
  3. WxUSAF
    Verbatim, 12z GGEM would threaten some record low maxes/record lows next Friday-Saturday. Especially for BWI and maybe IAD. But GGEM runs too cold at the surface…although I think gfs is too warm also. My wag right now is maybe 18-22 for lows at BWI and IAD and highs in the upper 30s?
  4. WxUSAF
    ECMWF had a major power outage earlier today. I’ve heard nothing since.
  5. WxUSAF
    Can smell smoke in Columbia
  6. WxUSAF
    0z Euro jumped on the cold/very cold holiday period. A lot of previous runs kept the coldest air well north even as GFS and GGEM brought the TPV south.
  7. WxUSAF
    Paging @Midlo Snow Maker
  8. WxUSAF
    How many inches of digital snow at your house count for inches of real snow in the Nov 20-Dec 10 window??
  9. WxUSAF
    If this was happening even a couple weeks later we’d be getting some major DT-type woofin’
  10. WxUSAF
    12z gfs actually fairly close to 6z considering it’s like D12
  11. WxUSAF
    Yeah, maybe goes without saying, but for us east of the mountains in the mid-Atlantic to get snow in the post-thanksgiving period, something like that 6z gfs option is probably the best odds. Fresh cold airmass comes in and trailing wave is weak and moves along the thermal boundary to our south. A stronger storm would pull warmer air in and sink our chances east of the mountains. That’s more like 12z gfs next Saturday.
  12. WxUSAF
    I was just over 60” in 13-14 and I’m like <10 miles from BWI.
  13. WxUSAF
    ^still kinda crazy it’s even a bit FARTHER west than 2002/2009/1986. Despite our superdeeduper east based Nino. But I like descending motion over the maritime continent for sure.
  14. WxUSAF
    MJO progression into phases 3-4 (if it gets there) would suggest warmer risks going into December. That would also fit mod+ Nino climo. So we’ll see. But I think we get some sort of event in December.
  15. WxUSAF
    6z gfs agrees
  16. WxUSAF
    Ha jinx except I posted in banter
  17. WxUSAF
    Happy hour GFS saves winter before the turkey’s in the oven!!
  18. WxUSAF
    I personally toss 91-92 entirely due to Pinatubo. And Pinatubo =\ Hunga Tonga. 57-58 seems to have a lot going for it as an analog. It was a well AN snowfall winter as well. I think even adjusting it for climate warming would suggest optimism for snow.
  19. WxUSAF
    Wooo baby
  20. WxUSAF
    Yeah EPS like the other ensembles are pretty cold after the midweek storm next week. Certainly upslope and lake effect will kick in at times. Doesn’t seem out of the realm of possibility to get some frozen precip east of the mountains if things shake out right.
  21. WxUSAF
    Canaan valley in 30-35” would maybe be their least snowy year on record? Lol
  22. WxUSAF
    Snow stockholm syndrome
  23. WxUSAF
    12z GGEM is crazy cold for thanksgiving and would suggest snow flurries/showers verbatim especially for folks N/W and in the mountains.
  24. WxUSAF
    Great thread from @wxmvpete about next week. Winter could be saved!?!
  25. WxUSAF
    Another local TV met teams outlook that I think is supposed to message “above normal” snow (because this is, strictly, for DC alone) and ends up being slightly below normal to well below normal for most of the rest of the area.
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