WxUSAF
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Everything posted by WxUSAF
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You freaking nailed it dude
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With a few torchy days next week looking likely, about certain October ends up AN. But still a chance for first freeze depending how that series of plains storms develops. Some broader factors suggest we should get a good cold push sometime Halloween week.
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12z GGEM has a scenario for late next week that would be light snow 3-4 weeks later and isn’t far off verbatim. Wave runs along the strong cold front after it pushes south with a few tenths of an inch precip.
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41.5 for the low
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For perspective, Caribou, ME, hasn’t even hit 36F yet.
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Yes. 91-92 could have been a pretty great winter with a Nino and -QBO! Pinatubo ruined that.
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There’s a fair bit of research on the AO response to Pinatubo so we don’t have to handwave. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/1999jd900213 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2003JD003699 The upshot is that the AO was more positive because of Pinatubo and possibly particularly because of the QBO forcing enhancing the volcanic aerosol effect. The AO was super positive in 92-93 and that was due to a combination of +QBO and lingering aerosol.
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Next Tuesday looks like the first chance possibly for IAD and maybe BWI.
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-EPO is cold for the east US
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Find something you love as much as the ravens love keeping inferior teams in the game
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Probably could be 30-3 at half but I’ll take it
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About 0.6”
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Gorgeous trees like this but still a lot of trees with little color.
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We’ve lost the coupled +PNA/-EPO look. Now seems like a +PNA that we lose right when the EPO tanks. Still could offer freeze chances If things time up well but not as confident an outlook now.
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About 0.1” so far. Good day for watching football and cooking.
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Still think first freeze pretty likely at some point the last full week of the month.
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Any playoff tournament is going to have some freak outcomes. Most people like that because it’s exciting! At least this time it was clear the rangers were the better team, for this weekend. In 2014 the damn royals blooped and dinky-dunked their way to the World Series and that hurt.
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Now have a ravens season and an El Niño winter to put all my hopes and dreams into
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Looks that way. Rough ending to a very special season.
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Ensembles in agreement on coupled -EPO/+PNA D10-15. Should provide first freeze chances to many.
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Low of 39! First 40s and first 30s on back to back days.
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I’ve literally been saying this all weekend lol
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What a nightmare weekend
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Literally one of the worst ravens losses I can recall
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Could not have tried harder to give it away
