Jump to content

WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
  • Posts

    26,849
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. Supposed to be flying back to DC in the middle of that epic winter-saving early season SECS. Time to rebook?
  2. Icon is a slightly weaker version of the GFS. GGEM trough stays too progressive and positively tilted, maybe show showers for some.
  3. This is all connected of course. Models always bias MJO waves to dissipate too quickly. Moving through 7-8-1-2 from mid-December to early January with the cold air on our side of the globe and a very weak strat PV is an enticing combination. And throw in a Nino STJ.
  4. Low of 27. After yesterday, BWI is exactly “normal” on the month for temps and IAD, DCA and RIC are very slightly below normal (-0.1 - -0.3F). Today should end up slightly below normal temps as well.
  5. High of 40 and low of 23 at BWI today. Only 6 days in November 2022-March 2023 were as cold or colder by mean daily temperature.
  6. We don’t HAVE to have below normal temps to get snow. Just trickier without it.
  7. “usually” what happens is that all those features (NPac trough and western ridge) are west of those positions leading into the storm and then they roll east with the big storm.
  8. There’s definitely some good juju percolating for second half of December and beyond. Hopefully some of our more sensitive subforum posters can make it!
  9. How do I just get the Cat Fancy subscription?
  10. Depending on your expectations for @stormtrackers 12z promise, Euro and GFS certainly keep us in the game for “something” next week.
  11. Yeah, but at the time I couldn’t find any literature measuring that. Maybe it’s been done since.
  12. I don’t know if there’s any literature about it, but I started dabbling with a project in grad school that would have shown that UHI is minimized during cold air advection as opposed to basic radiational cooling. Never got very far with it, but I think last night is a good demonstration of that idea.
  13. Plus Decembers in Ninos are usually mild and the least snowy month? Last December we had a pretty canonical Niña cold pattern the second half of that month and we got boned in the snow department.
  14. Plus the ensembles seem to keep adjusting to more -AO which I also quite enjoy! People are gonna gripe going forward even if we can pull a small event out of our hats next week, but I still think we will have chances for snow and cold this month. This does not look like December 2015 at all.
  15. I like seeing a Scandinavian ridge showing up on guidance toward mid-month. That should slowly retrograde and help reinforce a -NAO.
  16. A lot to like here, just don’t look at surface temps.
  17. “faint to modest indications” is a good motto for our subforum
  18. Congrats @GATECH!! A very impressive performance with a single day departure for BWI, IAD, and RIC and only 3 days for DCA. @BristowWx was second place with a total departure of 10 days and @southmdwatcher was third with a departure of 13 days.
  19. If BWI has an average temp of 32 tomorrow (high of 40 low of 24), there were only a handful of colder days in the Nov 22-March 23 cold season.
  20. It’s quite typical for strat vortex disruptions to impact Europe first.
  21. If you're into Strat vortex talk, today is a good day. A weak Strat vortex plus MJO that should be propagating into favorable phases is a good combo for the week before Xmas and beyond. @griteater and DT both talking about that time period as well.
  22. 30 at home. Stayed in the 30s today. Frigid with the wind.
  23. Big area of flurries and snow showers moving toward the M/D line. Hoffman better get that dry ice-cooled snow board out so he can rack up the flakes.
×
×
  • Create New...