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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    12z GEFS and GEPS both with pretty big shifts away from -PNA after D8.
  2. WxUSAF
    First really bonkers GFS run of the cold season. Fun stuff!
  3. WxUSAF
    So you’re saying seasonal forecasting is imperfect?
  4. WxUSAF
    CWG forecast is bullish for this winter.
  5. WxUSAF
    He knows. Just has to maintain the brand.
  6. WxUSAF
    Pretty good ensemble agreement on how the pattern develops going into Thanksgiving week with a much more Nino-like look to things. Pattern shuffle starts with this big upper low crashing into the west coast around D8-9. That serves to undercut the ridge in Canada and ridging expands over AK. This doesn't look like a particularly cold pattern for us with a +AO/+NAO and the coldest air from the -EPO will dump out west first before coming east. But it looks a lot more Nino-like and actually looks a fair bit like the December seasonal forecasts. Should also get us some regular precipitation started again...
  7. WxUSAF
    All in
  8. WxUSAF
    @griteater with a very readable and snow weenie friendly winter outlook
  9. WxUSAF
    Multivariate ENSO index. Basically a more comprehensive way to measure the impact of ENSO on the ocean and atmosphere. The current MEI is basically “warm neutral” vs strong Nino pacific SSTs.
  10. WxUSAF
    I think we may get a BN month…probably January, February, or March, but I’d be very pleasantly shocked if the winter as a whole is BN.
  11. WxUSAF
    WBAL Mets mostly going for median or above snowfall for BWI
  12. WxUSAF
    Yikes
  13. WxUSAF
    Negative correlation should be opposite signed, right? So +NAO in November would correlate to -NAO December?
  14. WxUSAF
    Yeah it’s “fine”. I’m just always impatient for winter to show up. Doesn’t change my feeling about winter at all.
  15. WxUSAF
    Weather looks incredibly boring for awhile. Generally warm and continued pretty dry.
  16. WxUSAF
    Official reports have 1.6” in DC for the great Appalachian storm and 0.5” for Baltimore.
  17. WxUSAF
    Ok cool. I’m in but since I’m 500 years old I don’t have those apps.
  18. WxUSAF
    I’m interested but how is it different than normal spotter reports to LWX?
  19. WxUSAF
  20. WxUSAF
    Ravens revamped “pass happy” offense and they just run the ball down team’s throats lol
  21. WxUSAF
    This is the kind of pattern that we should be seeing a lot more in the next 4-5 months.
  22. WxUSAF
    Pretty morning for a walk around centennial lake in HoCo. Can see a lot of bare trees.
  23. WxUSAF
    Happy “models come out at the proper time” day!
  24. WxUSAF
    Definitely been signs of a stout +PNA possibly forming 5ish days before thanksgiving. Also looks like precipitation finally ramps up after mid month.
  25. WxUSAF
    A damn deer rubbed on my new elm tree. It’s only on about 1/3rd or 1/2 the circumference. Any suggestions on what to do?
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