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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    DCA might be relying on an intrahour...
  2. WxUSAF
    I agree. As currently depicted, it's a "real" -NAO. I think he's splitting hairs that it's not forming through the one way of a Scandinavian ridge that retrogrades into the NAO domain. But Rossby wave breaking is also a very "real" way for a -NAO to form, and that's what's happening here. One thing I'm watching for is the orientation of the ridge. I want to see it develop that E-W orientation that's being advertised, and not just N-S. An E-W ridge over Greenland and Baffin is FAR more effective than a poleward oriented ridge over Greenland or Iceland.
  3. WxUSAF
    Webb is very rapidly flipping to JB level bullish on this winter lol
  4. WxUSAF
    Skepticism isn’t a bad plan given recent years. But we do have a good pattern starting basically today through next weekend. Just doesn’t look like it will do much for us except BN temps. This new -NAO dominated pattern after the 7th is still a recent arrival on guidance so caution is warranted. GEFS actually brings it in faster today on the 12z run. So far the opposite of cankicking.
  5. WxUSAF
    I’ve got reds in all the right places!
  6. WxUSAF
    -NAO come at ya fast
  7. WxUSAF
    Bingo
  8. WxUSAF
    Euro has a pretty good setup at D10. Looks like a setup for a snow to rain type deal. Euro control run may show something. Although it’s obvious next week’s cold won’t stick around to March, doesn’t look like we flip to a shit the blinds kinda pattern. So that’s good. Keep December 2015 outta here.
  9. WxUSAF
    I want a lot of events as well, but this is a sacrifice I’m willing for you to make.
  10. WxUSAF
    Happy thanksgiving!
  11. WxUSAF
    BWI: 22.6” DCA: 17.4” IAD: 25.1” RIC: 12.5” SBY: 11.9”
  12. WxUSAF
    You’re not wrong. Most of this discussion is following from one of Webb’s tweets today discussing that -NAO Decembers in Ninos usually suggest persistent -NAO for the whole winter. Even though the EPS plot @CAPE showed above is improved from 0z, it’s not a cold/snow pattern because of that strong -PNA.
  13. WxUSAF
    No idea where this came from and looks nothing like GEFS or EPS, but it is nice to look at.
  14. WxUSAF
    Very doubtful, not that JB would ever admit that.
  15. WxUSAF
    Don’t need a SSW for major cold and snow. A weak, wobbly strat vortex is just fine.
  16. WxUSAF
    Same. Chop up leaves and mow it short to make our 1 slushy dusting in late January more picturesque!
  17. WxUSAF
    2.05”
  18. WxUSAF
    0.85” so far
  19. WxUSAF
    Next week looking quite cold but dry. Fate of the winter hangs in the balance of getting a small accumulation over 1 acre of our subforum.
  20. WxUSAF
    I’m declaring a SEVERE LEAF DROP WARNING for the entire region for the next 48 hours.
  21. WxUSAF
    Not yet. Still things in November we’re watching.
  22. WxUSAF
    @snowman19 again, that pattern Roundy shows is quite different than anything Webb is suggesting.
  23. WxUSAF
    Oh I’m sure. Just was laughing to myself with Webb thinking Roundy’s post validated his super-Nino east CONUS December torch prediction when it looks quite the opposite.
  24. WxUSAF
    I know Webb didn’t, but did you bother to click on Roundy’s link and see that the pattern he’s showing looks very NON-torchy for the east CONUS??
  25. WxUSAF
    GGEM and Euro both have a pretty tasty setup around Saturday/Sunday. Neither really come together, but the players are there with a transient 50/50, fresh high coming in on top of low forming in the Plains and riding the thermal boundary eastward. Both models have another northern stream shortwave come in and mix everything up.
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