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WxUSAF

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by WxUSAF

  1. WxUSAF
    Eh...ok, I provisionally like it a little less. More energy in the front running s/w vs the back of the trough.
  2. WxUSAF
    Randy may be ahead of me, but s/w looks stronger than 12z at 54hrs?
  3. WxUSAF
    Not sure it means anything, but the mesos seem to like having that narrow band of light overrunning snow creep into the area Monday. Globals don't have that as much.
  4. WxUSAF
    Lol dude uses the CFS for forecasting
  5. WxUSAF
    It’s sort of a weak overrunning event that turns into a Miller B type evolution with the big northern stream s/w rotating in. 1-4” across our subforum verbatim. I don’t hate it, that’s for sure. Room for more though.
  6. WxUSAF
    @psuhoffman…yeah, @MN Transplant picked up on that earlier. Euro is stronger than other guidance with that lead s/w that moves through the Midwest. BUT…it was notably weaker with it (and more energy left behind) at 12z vs 0z. That’s more of an issue than the kicker. One more step of equal magnitude and euro probably looks like todays gfs.
  7. WxUSAF
    Kicker is also weaker yet again. Lots of positive steps here with 12z euro.
  8. WxUSAF
    I’m behind Randy, but at 78hrs, the TPV is much less suppressive and more energy is concentrated west in the trough. Less energy in the front running s/w.
  9. WxUSAF
    I’m only out to 66 on pivotal and can only compare to 0z. But I like it more than 0z for sure.
  10. WxUSAF
    Maybe I’ll start up my snowblower at home today. Extra heat and pollution into the air here will help increase heights ahead of the storm and push it back toward us.
  11. WxUSAF
    Oh ha, you’re right. That’s the last update on TT lol
  12. WxUSAF
    It’s actually pretty gorgeous
  13. WxUSAF
    Anyone have 13z NBM?
  14. WxUSAF
    Yes
  15. WxUSAF
    H/T to @mitchnick: Ukie is amped. 995mb over ACY.
  16. WxUSAF
    Reminder GEFS had almost nothing until 18z yesterday. And now we’re at D4 or less so I’d expect it will follow the op largely.
  17. WxUSAF
    Feb 2015 did. But otherwise I think the coldest days the last 7 years have been of the frozen mud variety.
  18. WxUSAF
    If we can get snowcover, I’d say widespread single digit lows are pretty likely.
  19. WxUSAF
    With not unreasonable ratios, GGEM says I’m approaching climo by next Saturday lol
  20. WxUSAF
    I love when long term pattern recognition works out.
  21. WxUSAF
    IMO, Icon, GFS, and GGEM are all solutions that have been in the envelope of the storm for the past 48 hours. Differences are in shortwave details. I don’t see any of them as “moving toward the euro” , at least in isolation.
  22. WxUSAF
    GGEM is 6-9” right among 95. Gradient is over @usedtobes house. @psuhoffmanslightly fringed.
  23. WxUSAF
    Differences between runs are again with how shortwaves 2 and 3 interact and how strong they are. 6z gfs had a lot more interaction between them.
  24. WxUSAF
    GGEM doesn’t look like a complete phase, but looks pretty good.
  25. WxUSAF
    Through 96 it’s southeast of 0z, but it’s a big storm and it’s turning up the coast…
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