John1122

There's not a lot of NW flow here, it's almost N or NNW flow. Very little SE movement in anything,

Coming down pretty well here now. Hopefully it can maintain this into the evening as it hooks up with Lake Michigan and starts flowing.

Looks like radar returns should get here in the next 45 minutes and future radar seems to show them sticking around until tonight. I've often found in this situations in the last hour or so before dark things start to really pick up.

MRX added a WWA for here. Looks like things should pick up this afternoon and evening. Nice looking moisture upstream.

That will have to rise from about 800 feet to 3000ish as it moves right across my area.

The best would probably be the zone forecast by county. Should be a Southeast Sevier, Southeast Blount etc. Those are or were written by actual Mets at one point and not computer generated. Even then, the mountain weather is very unpredictable and there's very few actual data points. That honestly goes for a lot of the area. Knowing your micro climates in East Tennessee is about as good a way as any to speculate on the forecast. For the Smokies the next 48 hours, extremely wintery, especially above 4000 feet is probably a good rule of thumb.

Honestly, the point forecasts aren't all that great a lot of the time either.

This is the actual LeConte NWS point forecast. It's for 6499 feet as close to LeConte as you can click. Tonight Rain and snow likely before 10pm, then snow. Patchy fog. Low around 22. Breezy, with a west wind around 25 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Friday Snow. Patchy fog before 1pm. High near 25. Blustery, with a northwest wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible. Friday Night Snow before 10pm, then snow showers, mainly between 10pm and 4am. Patchy fog before 3am, then patchy fog after 5am. Low around 15. Wind chill values between -2 and 6. Blustery, with a north wind around 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Saturday A chance of snow showers before 10am, then a chance of flurries between 10am and 1pm. Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, with a high near 22. Wind chill values between -3 and 7. Blustery, with a northwest wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

I'd say that could happen at LeConte and around it. It's the best location for upslope in the entire southern Appalachians. I've seen it get 24-36 inches from upslope before but I'm not sure it will this time, but it's entirely possible. Other areas above 5000 aren't as favorable, according to how they are situated. Honestly it's really above 6000 that seems to be the most prone. I've seen LeConte get 20 inches of upslope but Newfound Gap gets only 5-6.

The NAM and 3k NAM are very determined for my area. I suspect they aren't handling this well. LeConte probably won't get 6 feet of snow either.

Nashville goes with the WWA for their Plateau areas. They mentioned the Eastern Plateau as being favored. Nothing here from MRX yet, I'll doubt they issue anything for my area.

I do expect a WWA for Cumberland and Fentress counties from the NWS Nashville office.

They just use the model NMB or whatever it's called and pretty much stick to their guns, regardless of actual falling weather.

JKL says it best in their AFD this morning. The favored NWF areas will see snow, perhaps a lot of it. Other areas will probably need at least a WWA based on where bands off Lake Michigan set up. If you get one, you're liable to get a few inches, if not, dusting to maybe an inch in their CWA. Right now, they just have no idea where that band may be.

It's not been great at any range this year tbh.

Big time thunder here. You don't often see tornado watches/severe warnings butted up to winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories, but we do seem to get them on occasion.

It's odd. Modeling didn't change but that's literally the exact opposite of what the previous shift said 12 hours before regarding cold and all areas except the far southern valley staying snow.

The Canadian shows a great band from Lake Michigan all the way into my back yard. I got 7 inches in about 4 hours from one of those back about 15 or so years ago.

The 0z NAM nest and RGEM are looking really good for my area. I won't believe until I see it but I'm gonna hope they're right.

NW flow tends to be like lake effect snow. You can rack up and a few miles away gets almost nothing. This will be an opportunity to learn more about your microclimate. East Tennessee has more than almost any place in the United States.

Pure NW flow per MRX. They noted near perfect 320 degrees wind direction. If we can hook up with Lake Michigan that could allow more widespread banding to move into the Central Valley of East Tennessee.

Two nasty ice storms in the early 80s here but the king imby is Christmas 1998. 2 days of light to moderate rain with a peak temp of 28. It was supposed to get above freezing but didn't. The sounds in the woods, of cracking and limbs breaking at night is eerie. It was a no power Christmas. I know just south and west of here had a major freezing rain event in either 2014 or 2015 when i got pounded by 3 inches of sleet and 4 or 5 inches of snow. Places just north of me that stayed all snow got well over 12 inches. Those big sleet and ice events usually happen in western areas or the Carolina side of things.

How do you normally do in flow snow set ups? Higher is always better but you need to be in a favorable location for NW flow.

It and the 12k are. Encouraging that MRX said this one was actually trending colder and that it should be all snow for everyone except possibly the southern areas. They mentioned advisories for my area and Southwest VA. They also mentioned the vorts Holston talked about earlier. These will have the potential why snow squalls that spread into the valley areas the way things look now.

I got NAM'd that 0z run. 4 to 5 inch bullseye imby.