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John1122

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  1. John1122
    I truly hope this pattern can repeat in winter. Ridge west, trough in our back yard. It's 2pm in what is the hottest climatological week of the year, and it's hanging out at 78 degrees. My A/C just kicked on for the first time today. Get this going in winter and we'd likely see favorable clippers, sliders, and NW flow.
  2. John1122

    ENSO

    John1122 replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    January 1987 probably lines up pretty close to the current ENSO forecast this year. It was +1.5 but actually getting stronger. The first part of January was warm but the last 10 days turned really cold. I had a 2 inch, 3 inch and 5 inch event during that 10 day stretch. There was also ice in the 5 inch event day. Had some low 20s for highs and lows around 0 late month.
  3. John1122

    ENSO

    John1122 replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Newest advisory says 20 percent chance of a strong 2+ Nino, general model average is still a peak around November then falling as we head into DJF. The 1.4 to 1.6 range has lined up with some snowy winters here in the past, but as we've learned lately, using the past isn't as accurate a guideline these days as it may have been at one point.
  4. John1122
    No kidding. It rained overnight here and my dewpoint is currently 75.7. It's 81.4 degrees and 83 percent humidity.
  5. John1122
    Only made it to 84 today after a low of 66. It was beach humid this afternoon though. A thunderstorm east of me seemed to only make it worse.
  6. John1122
    56.5 this morning was very refreshing. It's 75.4 degrees at 1pm. My A/C hasn't been on today at all. Hard to beat the A/C not kicking on on a mid-July day.
  7. John1122
    It lasted about another hour after I posted that. We had 3.6 inches of rain from yesterday afternoon through around 3am.
  8. John1122
    Drenching down here, working on 3 inches of rain since this afternoon. Flash Flood and Areal flood products in effect for here and Whitley County Kentucky.
  9. John1122
    On the QBO front, the 30mb reading has went from 12.89 in May to 9.26 in June, to a current reading of 0.72. It should be falling for the next 9-12 months. I've read in the past that how negative is reads isn't as important of a winter weather driver as it's direction. As long as it's generally falling in winter, it tends to lead to more cold/snow/blocking for the Eastern half of the country. Even if it's negative, if it's in its rising phase towards less negative numbers, it leads to warmer/less blocking.
  10. John1122
    The stolen summer continues. It got to 80 today before the storms hit. Now it's in the lower 70s. July 2009 we were in the upper 70s and low 80s early month. The high for that whole month was 86. The 18th-25th that month we had low to mid 50s for lows, one day at 49. The high on the 19th was 69 degrees and it wasn't rainy. July was around -5 overall that year. August was -2. That was also a transition to El Nino period during summer, that peaked at 1.6 in December. This years looks very similar as of the June forecast/average of the dynamical models. A bit earlier peak vs 2009-10 but falling into winter like 2009-10.
  11. John1122

    ENSO

    John1122 replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    I've been waiting on the next update. Last mean I saw said it would peak at 1.6 in fall and be down to 1.4 by DJF/JFM. Who knows these days, but in the past that's been generous with snow imby when it's around +1.4 to. +1.6. Bad time come when it's +2.2/+2.4 range.
  12. John1122
    Got up to 81 today, clouded up and rained a little bit and capped the temps. Down to 77 currently.
  13. John1122
    It's been cloudy since the storms this morning, so we've been hanging out in the upper 70s today. Another 10 degrees colder than expected day. The storms since the watch was posted are isolated. One passed just about 15 miles south of me. Heard thunder but no additional rain. Some activitity upstream.
  14. John1122
    Went from 83.8 which was the high so far to 83.6 as I was taking this. Looks like the heat wave that wasn't here. It is very humid but zero complaints. Gonna be borderline on the MCS moving due east from the midstate. Possibly a little too far north for it. It is getting cloudy here though. So that's likely the end of any additional heating.
  15. John1122
    Thank goodness for MCSes!
  16. John1122
    Looks like 82 is going to do it for today. Was supposed to be the hottest day of the year. My air conditioning didn't even kick on until 3pm.
  17. John1122

    ENSO

    John1122 replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Year one of the super Nino a few years ago was pretty snowy/cold. The following two years were mild and had little snow.
  18. John1122
    Clouds are breaking up some here, 69 degrees, high is now predicted to be 85. Latest HRRR has another round moving in around or just after midnight. But these are notoriously hard to predict.
  19. John1122
    Heavy rain and tons of thunder with this mcs. It's crazy how many of these are firing. Usually seems like theres 1 per day. This is the third one in about 18 hours.
  20. John1122
    Not sure if the next MCS will reach here or not. I only got a shower off the stuff moving over today. It's potent right now to the NW. The clouds and shower did significantly hold temps down today. Was predicted to be 91 a couple days ago, but we only hit 78 today. Forecast was 94 tomorrow, now it's 87.
  21. John1122
    Wild to see heat index forecasts of up to 115 for the mid-state and western parts of the area too. That's rare air in the worst way.
  22. John1122
    Same here yesterday and today. Extremely hazy.
  23. John1122
    Windy and extremely heavy rain with this warned storm crossing my area. Still have power so far.
  24. John1122
    Hopefully this works. Slipping around today.
  25. John1122
    I had over 4 inches from Sunday to Thursday.
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