John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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Have had a few snow flurries passing by under some clouds over the last hour or so.
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The cold of January 1977 was unlike anything I've ever seen. I was a kid and thought the 70s and early 80s were normal. We regularly got 4+ inch snows that snowed on top of snow. Schools being out 1 to 2 weeks were common. January '77 was so cold here that we only reached 40+ degrees 3 days. One of those was 40 even. The highest temperature of the whole month was 47. 10 days we had below 0 lows. 6 more days had lows between 5 and 0. 20 days the high was 32 or below. In December 1976 we had 2.5 inches of snow on December 21st-22nd, 3 inches December 25-26th, 6.5 inches the 29-Jan 1st 1977. That led to a -11 degree low on New Years. We got 1/2 inch on Jan 4th, 4 inches on the 7th, 7 inches on the 10th. 14th and 15th we got 1/2 inch of snow and .35 freezing rain. That led into back to back days of -17 degree lows with highs in the single digits. These are the high/lows the last 20 days of Jan 1977 imby. Jan 11th 25/-5 Jan 12th 24/-7 Jan 13th 28/2 Jan 14th 35/2 Jan 15th 36/24 Jan 16th 38/5 Jan 17th 8/-17 Jan 18th 19/-17 Jan 19th 16/-7 Jan 20th 23/-2 Jan 21st 17/1 Jan 22nd 28/3 Jan 23 31/12 Jan 24th 31/20 (snowed 6 inches 24th-26th) Jan 25th 29/22 Jan 26th 34/20 Jan 27th 43/20 Jan 28th 45/25 Jan 29th 29/-10 Jan 30th 23/-1 Jan 31st 29/-3 As noted by Daniel Boone, snow was constantly on the ground all winter. I recall hardly going to school that entire month and being able to go sledding basically every day.
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Impressive turn today after it being actually hot and muggy yesterday. 48 degrees with some light showers so far. I'm hoping for a 1/4th of an inch but probably won't get there looking at radar trends.
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I just read a story that the PV was going to get very stretched out and send cold into North America through early November. It's been modeled to elongate quite a bit by November 3rd or so from the images in the story. It was from a site that normally deals with European weather patterns.
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The rain here was pretty decent, around .70. This hasn't been like a typical dry spell in fall, because usually those tend to feature a lot of sun and a lot of AN temps. The short periods of rain we've gotten were allowed to soak in because of extended cloudy stretches, and coolish temperatures. I do know I've been luckier with rain than those south of I-40.
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Unfortunately that tends not to happen, at least when November is very warm. It seems like the November pattern often repeats in winter. If I can have anything, I'll take my chances with a cold November and see where it falls. November 2021 was -3.5 here and we had a reasonably memorable winter topped by the March storm. Last year I was near normal for November but areas away from the Northern Plateau were around +3 and things didn't go well. Memorable winters off the top of my head. Nov 1976 was -8 All winters after through 1982. Nov 1984 was -3. 1995 was -4 in November and it led into one of the best modern day winters we've seen in the region. Nov 2013 was -3, 2014 was -6. No weather correlation is ever 100 percent but when you start seeing it get to 60/40 or 65/35 splits, that's significant. There are warm Novembers that had good winters to follow. Though one, November of 1977 was AN because it had a very very warm first six or so days and two very AN days late month. The last three weeks were generally BN except for the one spike. It snowed 6 inches the last week of the month and lows were in the single numbers but it still finished +2 because of how warm it was when it was warm (several +15 or more days). But our standard bearer winters for extreme cold and snow in my life are basically 76-77, 77-78, 78-79, 79-80, 80-81, 81-82, (winters were awesome back then) 84-85, 93-94, 95-96, 13-14, 14-15. 6 of 11 the had BN Novembers (more than-1.5) 3 NN (2 were around -0.4, 1 around +0.5), 2 AN. Good winters that were snowy, but not frigidly cold (no below 0 weather imby), were 09-10, 10-11, 20-21, 21-22. I believe in that group 2 were AN in November, one NN (-0.3) and 1 was BN. Out of those 15 memorable for cold and/or snow, winters 4 had AN Novembers, 7 BN Novembers, 4 NN (with 3 of those 4 on the slightly BN side of normal) Novembers. So technically, 10 of 15 were on the BN side of things. The best warm November analog was Nov 1978, it was +4. December remained mild that winter, Jan went BN and February 1979 was extremely cold and snowy. I may be missing a winter or two that worked well for us as I'm going mostly off memory. Also, this applies to the Northern Plateau/Cumberlands area. But it likely applies to a larger portion of the region as well.
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If the GFS is to be believed the AN temps will be short lived (3-5 days). Then a major cold front will slam through with the coldest air of the season, and a hard freeze the weekend before Halloween. Pretty widespread 20s showing up for most of the forum area in that time frame.
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My lawn hasn't had any stress really this year. We've had several nice showers this afternoon, then sunshine, then back to showers. If this were late November to March it would probably be a snowshower kind of day.
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I sure hope not, or that the Nino/Cold October works out for us.
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Getting showers this afternoon that are moving almost NNE to SSW. Very unusual. Temp is 50.
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Nothing very heavy but we've had a pretty good 45 minute shower here. I was worried that it might not rain at all. Every drop that hits a leaf helps with the coming fire season. After year after year of epic rainfall totals and 3 500 year flooding events, I didn't know if we'd ever be dry for any length of time again.
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I'm not sure on Nino years, but in the grand scheme of things we basically always want a BN November. There's a pretty strong relationship to BN Novembers and major snow/ice events in the winter here. There's also a pretty strong relationship to dud winters after AN Novembers. It's something like around 70 percent in both directions.
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This isn't bad at all to head into winter. Implies PNA ridging and down stream troughing here with an active STJ.
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Looking at the latest ENSO report, I wonder if the Nino has now peaked? Both the subsurface and surface temperatures across nearly the entire basin have declined for 4 straight weeks. From what I can tell, most models have the Nino declining in Nov/Dec/Jan and slowly falling through winter. But all seem to have missed the slight weakening over the last month. 3.4 now looks to hang out in the 1.0 to 1.5 range and a moderate Nino is now favored through winter. The last strong Nino was a good winter for cold and snow and the last weak Nino was a torch. So maybe moderate will work out for us.
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I'm currently at -0.5 for the month to date and the high today was 62 degrees vs a normal of 69, the low this morning was 43 vs a normal of 46 for today. The BN anomalies should deepen as we move further into the month. I do know that November is a key month for my area, as BN November years tend to lead in to far more frequent winter events than AN November years. I very much appreciate your BN Oct/El Nino winter research. I'm going to look and see what winter events happened in the years you've noted. I will say, for my area, I love +PNA/-EPO set ups. The Pacific can really bring the winter extremes here when it cooperates.
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34 this morning with frost. A friend of mine who lives down in a deep bottom was 32 this morning.
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Already down to 45. Not sure why I'm bordered by frost advisories and not under one but I'm going to assume it's going to frost here.
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Those were all over yesterday! There was one at the Campbell County football game and I saw one online at a couple of Knoxville area games. Feeling true fall outside. Sunny blue skies and 55 degrees with a breeze.
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Imby Nov/Dec/Jan/Feb were all BN. Around -3 for Nov, -2.5 Dec/Feb, -6 for January. Big snow event early December of around 6 inches. There was snow on the ground here from Mid-Jan all the way to Feb 1st. Two snow events here during those two weeks. 7 inches that caused a 4 day power outage for me and then another 3 or 4 inch event a few days later. Below 0 temps followed the 7 inch snow. There were a couple more 2-3 inch events in February. March flipped and was +6. The QBO had been positive but falling. It went negative in December and slowly fell through winter. The Nino was a high end moderate. It peaked at +1.3 around November and started falling the rest of winter.
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Still raining hard and thundering here. Looks like the storms are doing better further south than expected too. May even reach 'Nooga.
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One heck of a flooding storm going on right now. Nice to get a big shot of water as leaf season is going. Just to make sure the deep layers of leaves aren't super dry.
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48/72 here today.
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49.6 this morning. Currently 68 degrees. Yesterday as rain showers whipped through, it was actually windy and felt chilly, temperatures fell into the mid 60s as the the rain moved through.
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52 this morning. Currently up to 73. Feels like early October.
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I've got a raft of leaves already down from the huge sycamore by my driveway. The black gum tree alongside it also has several branches that have turned fully red.
