John1122

6z remains a cutter, then it clippers it's way to decent totals, one of which blossoms into a massive Nor'Easter. Our whole forum area gets 2-6 inches over days 8-12ish. As always, like as not a complete fantasy. But what we used to see with true Alberta clippers.

The Euro moves to the GFS camp. A ridge pops ahead of the system like on the GFS and the storm cuts across Tennessee and into Ohio. Still a lot of runs to go, but cutters are the default for us, unfortunately. Hopefully it can trend back our way.

Spot the difference between the 0z GFS cutter, vs the 0z ICON, 0z UKMet, 12z Euro, 0z GEFS as the system approaches. GFS ICON UKMet 12z Euro from earlier today. 00z GEFS

The Canadian just never gets moisture north of 40, but south of 40 does well.

The Canadian is probably going to be a winter storm solution. It's slower than the ICON and way slower than the GFS here.

Unfortunately, it is. 850s are around 35 and the surface is 30/31 in the red areas.

GFS continues to live on cutter island. Holds much more back over the SW again, vs that wintery ICON run. We'll see if the Canadian joins it shortly.

Actually getting hail now.

Heck of a windy storm rolling through. Very heavy rain. The heavy rain overnight and today already had the creeks running extremely high.

Still snowing at the end of the run as noted at 180 above.

ICON. Potentially devastating with such a cold outbreak following the ice/snow.

Spire Model

Much much much weaker than the Euro version last night, which kept the precipitation shield light and small.

This may look like a version of the Euro from last night, but a little further East.

Trying to work something up in the gulf along the end of the front from the cutter.

It moved 200 miles SE that run. But still has energy over Nevada diving into Arizona that isn't there on the Canadian/Euro.

The MJO is probably the best we've ever seen it, forecast wise. There are almost no plots that have it on the right side and the left is covered.

Snow total proabilities, the entire forum area has a > 50 percent chance of 1-2 inches of snow per the EPS, with the chances climbing in the northern half of Tennessee. The chance from Clarksville east across all but the southern border counties in Tennessee is greater than 70. Greater than 80 on the Plateau and NE Tn, greater than 90 in SE Ky/SWVa. The entire forum area has a greater than 20 percent chance of 3 to 5 inches of snow. With the chance at > 40 percent for most of the mid-state and points east. > 50 percent on the Plateau and NE Tn. > 60 percent in areas above around 2000 feet it looks like. The entire forum area has a > than 10 percent chance at 6+ inches of snow. >20 percent from the mid-state east. With higher probs in the mountains. The EPS mean total is 2.6 near Memphis, 2.5-3 across Northern Miss/Alabama/Georgia, rising as you go North and East. 3.4 mean for Nashville, 3.3 for Chattanooga, mid 3s for Knox. 4+ Plateau and 6+ mountain tops.

The models aren't nearly as cold as they were prior. The GFS because no snow cover. The Euro because the first storm doesn't cut and drag the PV down. It's still very cold, but 5 to -2 is a lot warmer than those -10 to -20s that some runs have spit out.

The wcs (worst case scenario) is 2017-18. 28-21 34-22 27-10 35-11 38-15 32-13 22-3 19-0 25- -1 31-12 18-4 20- -1 25- -2 31-5 33-23 (dusting of snow that changed to rain at 33 with .2 precip) That was a 15 day stretch of temps here from Dec 26th 2017 to January 9th 2018. If I recall correctly, the I-20 corridor, especially in Louisiana and Texas, got multiple big snow events. Ice was 6 inches thick on creeks here with a dusting of snow to show for it.

The GFS does indeed bury energy in Arizona, which doesn't happen on the 0z Euro or 12z Canadian.

Late run, the GFS is still suppressed. But it's also sending a 1050 high down which is causing the suppression. Those virtually never verify as strong as the GFS shows them.

The Canadian is a solid slider, nothing epic of the 12+ variety here, but very solid for at least the mid-state, the upper deep south over to eastern areas and the Carolinas.

GFS cuts again. It's swinging wildly still and apparently that's just how it's gonna roll this winter. It's solutions are extreme in both directions. 30 degree temp differences run to run, 12+ inches of snow vs bare ground, run to run. The GEFS is holding a pretty steady snow mean. It's gonna be a long next few days until the models actually lock into something. At this point I actually expect a cutter, because they are 100 times more likely than historic snow events. Still, I'll hope for a better solution for us.

There was quite a bit of thunder overnight. The clock is ticking for snow.