John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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It may heat up this week but my high was 78 today and yesterday. Impossible to beat on July 22nd and 23rd. I guess I can deal with upper 80s because I know that we've missed two months of heat this Summer.
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Looks like I may hit 90 this week. Models are showing 91-93 but my point forecast says 89 as the max. I'd love to go a whole summer with no 90s.
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For the second morning in a row a heavy shower developed over me and soaked everything. Almost in the exact same place as yesterday.
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It's crazy that we probably aren't much more than 60 miles apart as the crow flies and there's been that big of a difference.
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Tons of flooding just west of me. It's rained off and on throughout the day but the heavy stuff was just off to my west. Finally getting very heavy rain here with all the thunder. Fortunately not like Scott and Morgan got it.
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Man, this thunder sounds like bombs going off. Apparently lots of strikes really close by. Looks like the high for today is going to be 69 and that was at midnight.
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So far, my high today is 72. Just had another round of moderate rain pass over.
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I think most of the forum region got in on it, except maybe Chattanooga and Memphis. But they may have gotten in on it too. 40 corridor and north had several events of snow/sleet/freezing rain. Parts of Middle Tennessee got 12+ from one storm in January 2016.
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I think that was a year or two prior. You guys got rocked in Jan-Feb 2016.
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It was a late bloomer, but turned epic in from Mid Jan to Mid Feb. Lots of ice and snow, and even severe weather that winter.
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Looks like 80.9 is going to do it today. It was 61 this morning.
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I truly hope this pattern can repeat in winter. Ridge west, trough in our back yard. It's 2pm in what is the hottest climatological week of the year, and it's hanging out at 78 degrees. My A/C just kicked on for the first time today. Get this going in winter and we'd likely see favorable clippers, sliders, and NW flow.
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January 1987 probably lines up pretty close to the current ENSO forecast this year. It was +1.5 but actually getting stronger. The first part of January was warm but the last 10 days turned really cold. I had a 2 inch, 3 inch and 5 inch event during that 10 day stretch. There was also ice in the 5 inch event day. Had some low 20s for highs and lows around 0 late month.
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Newest advisory says 20 percent chance of a strong 2+ Nino, general model average is still a peak around November then falling as we head into DJF. The 1.4 to 1.6 range has lined up with some snowy winters here in the past, but as we've learned lately, using the past isn't as accurate a guideline these days as it may have been at one point.
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No kidding. It rained overnight here and my dewpoint is currently 75.7. It's 81.4 degrees and 83 percent humidity.
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Only made it to 84 today after a low of 66. It was beach humid this afternoon though. A thunderstorm east of me seemed to only make it worse.
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56.5 this morning was very refreshing. It's 75.4 degrees at 1pm. My A/C hasn't been on today at all. Hard to beat the A/C not kicking on on a mid-July day.
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It lasted about another hour after I posted that. We had 3.6 inches of rain from yesterday afternoon through around 3am.
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Drenching down here, working on 3 inches of rain since this afternoon. Flash Flood and Areal flood products in effect for here and Whitley County Kentucky.
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On the QBO front, the 30mb reading has went from 12.89 in May to 9.26 in June, to a current reading of 0.72. It should be falling for the next 9-12 months. I've read in the past that how negative is reads isn't as important of a winter weather driver as it's direction. As long as it's generally falling in winter, it tends to lead to more cold/snow/blocking for the Eastern half of the country. Even if it's negative, if it's in its rising phase towards less negative numbers, it leads to warmer/less blocking.
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The stolen summer continues. It got to 80 today before the storms hit. Now it's in the lower 70s. July 2009 we were in the upper 70s and low 80s early month. The high for that whole month was 86. The 18th-25th that month we had low to mid 50s for lows, one day at 49. The high on the 19th was 69 degrees and it wasn't rainy. July was around -5 overall that year. August was -2. That was also a transition to El Nino period during summer, that peaked at 1.6 in December. This years looks very similar as of the June forecast/average of the dynamical models. A bit earlier peak vs 2009-10 but falling into winter like 2009-10.
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I've been waiting on the next update. Last mean I saw said it would peak at 1.6 in fall and be down to 1.4 by DJF/JFM. Who knows these days, but in the past that's been generous with snow imby when it's around +1.4 to. +1.6. Bad time come when it's +2.2/+2.4 range.
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Got up to 81 today, clouded up and rained a little bit and capped the temps. Down to 77 currently.
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It's been cloudy since the storms this morning, so we've been hanging out in the upper 70s today. Another 10 degrees colder than expected day. The storms since the watch was posted are isolated. One passed just about 15 miles south of me. Heard thunder but no additional rain. Some activitity upstream.
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Went from 83.8 which was the high so far to 83.6 as I was taking this. Looks like the heat wave that wasn't here. It is very humid but zero complaints. Gonna be borderline on the MCS moving due east from the midstate. Possibly a little too far north for it. It is getting cloudy here though. So that's likely the end of any additional heating.
