John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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Getting showers this afternoon that are moving almost NNE to SSW. Very unusual. Temp is 50.
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Nothing very heavy but we've had a pretty good 45 minute shower here. I was worried that it might not rain at all. Every drop that hits a leaf helps with the coming fire season. After year after year of epic rainfall totals and 3 500 year flooding events, I didn't know if we'd ever be dry for any length of time again.
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I'm not sure on Nino years, but in the grand scheme of things we basically always want a BN November. There's a pretty strong relationship to BN Novembers and major snow/ice events in the winter here. There's also a pretty strong relationship to dud winters after AN Novembers. It's something like around 70 percent in both directions.
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This isn't bad at all to head into winter. Implies PNA ridging and down stream troughing here with an active STJ.
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Looking at the latest ENSO report, I wonder if the Nino has now peaked? Both the subsurface and surface temperatures across nearly the entire basin have declined for 4 straight weeks. From what I can tell, most models have the Nino declining in Nov/Dec/Jan and slowly falling through winter. But all seem to have missed the slight weakening over the last month. 3.4 now looks to hang out in the 1.0 to 1.5 range and a moderate Nino is now favored through winter. The last strong Nino was a good winter for cold and snow and the last weak Nino was a torch. So maybe moderate will work out for us.
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I'm currently at -0.5 for the month to date and the high today was 62 degrees vs a normal of 69, the low this morning was 43 vs a normal of 46 for today. The BN anomalies should deepen as we move further into the month. I do know that November is a key month for my area, as BN November years tend to lead in to far more frequent winter events than AN November years. I very much appreciate your BN Oct/El Nino winter research. I'm going to look and see what winter events happened in the years you've noted. I will say, for my area, I love +PNA/-EPO set ups. The Pacific can really bring the winter extremes here when it cooperates.
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34 this morning with frost. A friend of mine who lives down in a deep bottom was 32 this morning.
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Already down to 45. Not sure why I'm bordered by frost advisories and not under one but I'm going to assume it's going to frost here.
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Those were all over yesterday! There was one at the Campbell County football game and I saw one online at a couple of Knoxville area games. Feeling true fall outside. Sunny blue skies and 55 degrees with a breeze.
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Imby Nov/Dec/Jan/Feb were all BN. Around -3 for Nov, -2.5 Dec/Feb, -6 for January. Big snow event early December of around 6 inches. There was snow on the ground here from Mid-Jan all the way to Feb 1st. Two snow events here during those two weeks. 7 inches that caused a 4 day power outage for me and then another 3 or 4 inch event a few days later. Below 0 temps followed the 7 inch snow. There were a couple more 2-3 inch events in February. March flipped and was +6. The QBO had been positive but falling. It went negative in December and slowly fell through winter. The Nino was a high end moderate. It peaked at +1.3 around November and started falling the rest of winter.
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Still raining hard and thundering here. Looks like the storms are doing better further south than expected too. May even reach 'Nooga.
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One heck of a flooding storm going on right now. Nice to get a big shot of water as leaf season is going. Just to make sure the deep layers of leaves aren't super dry.
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48/72 here today.
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49.6 this morning. Currently 68 degrees. Yesterday as rain showers whipped through, it was actually windy and felt chilly, temperatures fell into the mid 60s as the the rain moved through.
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52 this morning. Currently up to 73. Feels like early October.
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I've got a raft of leaves already down from the huge sycamore by my driveway. The black gum tree alongside it also has several branches that have turned fully red.
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Had a heavy rainer this morning already. Looks like summer is basically over. I'm sure we'll get a few Indian Summer days, but my current 10 day forecast doesn't have a high above 76. The accuweather long lead, which I think is ran off the weekly models, so not terribly accurate, doesn't have a high in the 80s through the rest of the month or all of October. As a matter of fact, it has frost by the first week of October.
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Had a little over an inch of rain this evening during the severe warned storm. Thundered forever before it finally got here.
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I'd like to see it have a warm bias but I think it more has some odd extreme bias. Last winter it was way too cold when the big cold shot happened for Christmas. Seems like it was showing -10 to -20 around the area several days out.
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The GFS is probably overdoing it in the opposite from normal direction, but the 00z run is throwing out some lower 60s for afternoon highs imby next Wednesday. Could even see some upper 40s in spots for lows several days in a row. The canadian has most of the forum region between 47-52 by Friday morning the 15th.
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All summer long here. Very much so vs modeling.
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Been low to mid 80s here over the weekend. Another heatwave that didn't materialize imby. It's currently sunny and 80.
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It's approaching 3pm on a sunny August 31st and my AC unit hasn't kicked on today. That's hard to beat. It was 57 this morning and it's 74.8 right now.
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It wasn't out to the finish when I had posted that. I think it was at 222 or so. Either way, I'd feel comfortable betting my house that we aren't seeing 110+ in the forum area.
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The GFS has backed down some on it's extreme heat, not surprisingly. It's still well AN though. The Euro also has some pretty good warmth. The Canadian is more content to throw out upper 80s/around 90ish temperatures vs the mid to upper 90s the other two are tossing out. At least the 103-106 degree stuff disappeared.
