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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    After looking at it a bit, it looks like the EPO has been driving things to a large extent here. The few actual cool downs we've managed this late fall/early winter have coincided with it going negative. Often it will lock in negative when it does and truly bring severe winter conditions to the east. However, this year it's been very transient with 4 or 5 days in the negative and we follow with several days BN, then it rebounds to positive and we warm back up. A -EPO will overwhelm a -PNA and flood cold air this way. I seem to recall 2015 the PNA was negative in late Feb but the EPO was also deeply negative and we were 15-20 degrees bn with a lot of snow and ice as the EPO overwhelmed the PNA.
  2. John1122
    The Euro is still trying for various forms of frozen here this weekend. Forecasters seem adamant that nothing will happen in that regard. The long range builds a massive snowpack all the way to the Ohio border if nothing else. But it's also dumping snow in the west too, shades of last winter. The peaks around Mammoth are going to get 300+ inches per the GFS, over the next two weeks. I did read that the -NAO cold/snow effects were more shunted to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast vs the South/Southeast when the PNA was neutral/negative. (The current +PNA is what is keeping us from being warm now) Unfortunately it's about to go negative and Seattle is likely to turn snowy per some modeling and 10 day forecasts for them. When Seattle is snowy, we normally have cutters and 40s/50s in the winter. Though 1968-69 was fairly cold and snowy here and it's the snowiest winter on record in Seattle. It was the 60s though and it just snowed constantly in the 1960s and 1970s here. So I'm not sure it would apply here. I will add that 1968-69 was cool in January with a snow event but didn't turn super snowy until February when nearly 20 inches fell.
  3. John1122
    The further east you go the worse winters have been lately. They have only gotten two measurable snowfalls in that 1003 day span since February 8th 2021, and one of those was .3 inches in March 2022.
  4. John1122
    The UKIE is back in for now with snow fall in the Northern Plateau/SE Ky area/SW Va areas too. Hopefully this trends back towards what the Euro/UKIE were a few days ago with a widespread event.
  5. John1122
    The GFS and Canadian join their hi-res cousins with rate driven snow over the Northern Plateau and ice over more areas.
  6. John1122
    They both look icy for other parts of the eastern areas.
  7. John1122
    The NAM and RGEM both got interesting for the Plateau/SEKy.
  8. John1122
    The PAC NW is supposed to get 7-10 inches of rain and 60-80 inches of snow over the next 16 days. When you see that there, we're rarely going to be getting much in the way of winter weather, as it means a very hostile pacific.
  9. John1122
    As expected, the Euro took a big shift north.
  10. John1122
    Not sure if it's wrong but the midstate fares well on the UKIE still on Pivotal.
  11. John1122
    It's inevitable.
  12. John1122
    If this goes anything like normal, the GFS will go all in on the Euro/UKIE/Canadian solution and as soon as it does, the Euro/UKIE will lose it.
  13. John1122
    The Euro is also onboard for a major winter storm next weekend. I hope we can reel one of these in instead of having it collapse.
  14. John1122
    The Canadian is a severe severe winter storm next weekend with a lot of freezing rain/snow. The UKIE is also a major snow event for the Plateau and west. The GFS isn't having it still though. I'd guess the GFS is probably better and the more likely result but I'll hope not.
  15. John1122
    Feb 1989 was cold and snowy here. It has an early cold/wintery period, a warm up and a frigid and snowy close. We ended the month was just over 13 inches of snowfall. We had a 3 inch, 2 inch and 7 inch event over the last 10 days of the month. We were roughly -3 for Feb even with a major mid month warm up.
  16. John1122
    The maps they put out are horrible and worse, they change. The last huge blunder, and I noted it at the time, the March snowfall maps from our big storm were off by several inches at first, then the final map ended up just blanking all of Scott County, where I know for a fact 6 to 8 inches fell. I had 11 inches and it showed 10, then the final map showed 3 or 4 inches. 1995-96 for the longest time showed Tri-Cities with around 3 inches total for January and a similar amount for February. I have the Knoxville News Sentinel that I posted for the February 1996 storm and it clearly says many areas had 14-16 inches, including Knoxville. The official record for McGhee-Tyson for February 1996 is 0.9 inches.
  17. John1122
    I've not read it all yet, but there's a direct relationship for MJO location and strength during winter months with a falling QBO/Easterly QBO. They haven't figured out what causes the link and models struggle with it more than normal because they don't know yet what's the connection. Only that it has a 95% correlation and it definitely happens.
  18. John1122
    The second storm takes a perfect track but isn't too strong, which would help with WAA. Nice run for south of 40 especially for that storm. But generally 1.5 to 4 inches across most of the forum with a two storm total of 4-10 inches being fairly widespread.
  19. John1122
    That said, probably time for one of you guys to crank up a January thread. My pending trip to Chattanooga seems to have fired winter on all cylinders.
  20. John1122
    The Euro is loading up for a second storm just about 48 hours later.
  21. John1122
    Just a beast of a winter storm on the Euro again this run. Great run for areas along and south of 40 in middle and western areas, with the Plateau and Mountains getting crushed along with SE Ky and SWVa.
  22. John1122
    The Canadian follows up the suppressed storm with a perfect Southern slider that would make the whole forum pretty happy.
  23. John1122
    Canadian also has it in suppressed fashion.
  24. John1122
    GFS has a nice little Eastern areas 40 and north/Northern Plateau thumper at 147-156. Consistent storm signal there but this whole fall and winter most storms have under performed on QPF with a couple of exceptions.
  25. John1122
    Judging by several models, Monterey at 1880ft has a good shot at 1 inch+. The 3k NAM is giving 4-5 inches above 2800ft+ on the mountain above Caryville I was talking about, but it's liable to be very sketchy road wise there. Especially with 3-5 inches. I'd guess it probably ends up closer to the 1-2 inch range. It's very similar to the mountains around Wise in that it's oriented similarly and just seems to maximize snow opportunities.
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