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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    ICON was a little south of 18z and really buried Plateau and points West. But it warmed nosed and was not as good as 12z. GFS is a continued bleh compared to 24 hours ago.
  2. John1122
    GFS pops a low 150 miles of Hattaras and just leaves the energy in the Gulf doing nada. But the GFS also has a progressive bias in opposition to the Euro holding back bias. I believe it's because the GFS has a high stronger than any other model this get shoved south.
  3. John1122
    Our Chattanooga guys and gals want it 27 and 850s at -5c to be sure.
  4. John1122
    Overrunning = no warm nose so good for our south siders as a rule.
  5. John1122
    I still believe the Euro has QPF under modeling issues.
  6. John1122
    The Euro actually looks sort of like the UKIE but faster. The UKIE at 144 looks like it was heading towards the Euro at 126.
  7. John1122
    Also, one of you guys fire up a thread for it. We're gonna get the Arctic air and there will be some snow with it. with Western areas likely locked in for at least 2-4 inches. Time to focus on this in a dedicated thread imo and get more of the 8-15+ day stuff in here.
  8. John1122
    Another difference in the GFS/UKIE is the UKIE has a 1029 mb high in the Plains, the GFS has 1048mb high at the same time.
  9. John1122
    The European/UKIE have had a western bias for a number of years. It could be that. The Euro this year and over the last several years is way more jumpy with various solutions than it used to be too. It used be hard to get it to show a storm unless it was going to actually happen, now it kinda shows every possible solution over a 4 or 5 day span. The GFS tends to be more consistent but that can lead to some major failures on it's part. The Canadian is more like Delmar in Oh Brother Where Art Thou, in that it usually either shows exactly what the GFS does or exactly what the Euro does on a given run, where as it used to always go all in with any big snow or cold event.
  10. John1122
    It may be that the UKIE is going to get to the same solution, but much more slowly.
  11. John1122
    No, for this system. The cold dumps west and a SE ridge crops up in response. By Tuesday morning there's a 30/40 degree temperature difference over the Eastern half of Tennessee on the UKIE vs the GFS.
  12. John1122
    The UKIE is full western trough/se ridge and we stay warm dry over most of the state. It and the Euro often have similar outcomes as they likely have some common dna. We will see if the Euro is more like it soon.
  13. John1122
    The old extended NAM would have some 30+ inch lolipops for us. DGEXerizating it was called.
  14. John1122
    The ICON, which was the first to show the solution the Euro had last night, is now a big hitter today at 12z except for the far southern valley of East Tennessee. It actually has temp issues there.
  15. John1122
    Very windy and heavy snow shower moving through right now.
  16. John1122
    Weird turn on the Euro as it just keeps light snow over the area for 12 hours longer than the other models and we get a couple inches that way in the eastern half of the area. Nashville and west still do okay there.
  17. John1122
    Oh well, we will see if the Euro is leading or lost here. 50/50 which way it will go.
  18. John1122
    Euro pops a low in the gulf but shears everything out over us.
  19. John1122
    Weakening as it heads east.
  20. John1122
    Don't know how far East it'll go but the Euro is gonna lay the smack down on Western areas.
  21. John1122
    I think models tend to over exaggerate both upslope and downslope as a rule, especially hi-res models.
  22. John1122
    Another moderate round moving over. Nickel to quarter sized flakes.
  23. John1122
    This is the snow shower I was under earlier. This is right off 141. https://fb.watch/ptRZHyWvXX/?mibextid=2JQ9oc
  24. John1122
    Oh Canada!!
  25. John1122
    24-hour ratio map. I don't believe the barren spot down toward the southern valley. But great map otherwise and up for every from 12 and 18z.
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