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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    The Euro is going to be south it appears. Hopefully not back its near nothing runs from yesterday.
  2. John1122
    I'm not as good as Lil Flash but this seems to be the window. The UKIE/NAM are around the middle line to the NW line. The RGEM/ICON are around the middle line with some spillover. The GGEM and GFS are around the middle line and tilted toward the southern line. That's our window and I feel like it's set. Some but probably not all in the window will see 3+ inches and some will be on the outside looking in ala the Kermit picture from a few days ago.
  3. John1122
    Right now the NAM/UKIE are West/NW edge of guidance. The RGEM and ICON are in the middle. The GFS and Canadian are the southeast envelope.
  4. John1122
    The UKIE remains NW, even more than the NAM. 3+ inch line from Middleboro down to Campbell and far NW Morgan and Cumberland etc. Falls off fast east and southeast of that line. Monster run through the west and mid-state.
  5. John1122
    Sort of but bigger. About the southern half of Jefferson and a good part of Sevier co. The mean is a bit more East Tn centric than I'd noticed. The 3.5+ inch mean is basically Scott down to Cumberland and points east. Surprised that no one out west made it to 3.5 inches. These are all 10:1 btw.
  6. John1122
    There was a set up like this in the early 2000s, I can't remember the year but I was probably 10 miles north of the snow band and it just went on all day with light snow where I got about an inch in 10 hours and just south of me got 4 to 6 inches. It was painful, 24 hours out I was in the bullseye, and was under a WSW for 4-8 inches.
  7. John1122
    The GEFS mean was similar to the OP but lesser amounts towards Chattanooga and more towards the Kentucky border north of Nashville. One member just absolutely crushed the Eastern Valley near the mountains and it skewed the mean a little and there's a 5 inch bullseye east of Knoxville.
  8. John1122
    It's a few weeks down the road!
  9. John1122
    Uncle Nasty's plea was heard for this run.
  10. John1122
    Canadian is going well for Chattanooga too.
  11. John1122
    Yep, there's going to be a snow band that's probably 150-200 miles north to south but because of the angle, someone likely gets left out. I am surprised the window actually opened wider vs 12z and 18z when it was narrowing.
  12. John1122
    Looks like the GFS is going to get the south siders this run.
  13. John1122
    I completely understand that. One year in the 2000s, back around the time Stove was referencing earlier, it literally came a 4+ in snow in every single county in the area except here in my area. It was around 4 events that I just missed to the West, East, North and South. There was about a 10 mile circle with almost nothing and I was in it.
  14. John1122
    I'd actually call the ICON pretty kind to probably 80 percent of East Tennessee.
  15. John1122
    This is the highest res of the NAM nest at hour 60. Actually looks like the RGEM more so than the 12k NAM.
  16. John1122
    Knowing your microclimate is basically the be all/end all for forecasting here.
  17. John1122
    I honestly would've thought downslope wouldn't be a thing with this particular set up.
  18. John1122
    ICON
  19. John1122
    It's rocking. So far the 12k NAM was the outlier at 18z and looks like it's 2 to 1 against it at 00z. The positive, someone is getting a big snow. The Memphis to Nashville are just about locked in across all modeling. The Plateau is close to it as well. NE Tn, SETn and NW Tn SWVa seem to get less on various models.
  20. John1122
    ICON looks like it will also maintain a good hit for basically the whole forum.
  21. John1122
    RGEM.
  22. John1122
    The RGEM is actually south of its 18z and less QPF.
  23. John1122
    This doesn't add up. I've had hours of returns and no accumulation on the 12k, have an inch already on the 3k. 12k NAM 3k NAM
  24. John1122
    Yeah, there's someone wrong with the 12k on that run. At hour 60 it has my area at 27 degrees with a dew point of 3. At hour 60 the 3k has my area at 24 with a dewpoint of 20. That's why there's returns overhead but it amounts to nothing on the 12k. The weird part, it's saturated from 700mb to 850 then it just skews crazily left.
  25. John1122
    The 3k actually has qpf reaching the ground at hour 57-60 while the 12k just shows snow overhead but has no QPF. Models aren't supposed to show virga.
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