John1122

This is the highest res of the NAM nest at hour 60. Actually looks like the RGEM more so than the 12k NAM.

Knowing your microclimate is basically the be all/end all for forecasting here.

I honestly would've thought downslope wouldn't be a thing with this particular set up.

ICON

It's rocking. So far the 12k NAM was the outlier at 18z and looks like it's 2 to 1 against it at 00z. The positive, someone is getting a big snow. The Memphis to Nashville are just about locked in across all modeling. The Plateau is close to it as well. NE Tn, SETn and NW Tn SWVa seem to get less on various models.

ICON looks like it will also maintain a good hit for basically the whole forum.

RGEM.

The RGEM is actually south of its 18z and less QPF.

This doesn't add up. I've had hours of returns and no accumulation on the 12k, have an inch already on the 3k. 12k NAM 3k NAM

Yeah, there's someone wrong with the 12k on that run. At hour 60 it has my area at 27 degrees with a dew point of 3. At hour 60 the 3k has my area at 24 with a dewpoint of 20. That's why there's returns overhead but it amounts to nothing on the 12k. The weird part, it's saturated from 700mb to 850 then it just skews crazily left.

The 3k actually has qpf reaching the ground at hour 57-60 while the 12k just shows snow overhead but has no QPF. Models aren't supposed to show virga.

Yeah, the whole mid-state above the bottom tier of counties does. It was odd, I had 20dbz+ returns on there for something like 12 hours before getting to an inch. Then the model depicted 30 dbz for 3 hours and I went to 5 inches. I'm going to chaulk it up as continued NAM being the NAM at range for that odd evolution.

The NAM is more confusing than it's 18z run just by how the precip field meanders around.

Not sure what's going on with Pivatol and the NAM. It's like it's showing virga as snow output.

They determined that it takes less snow to cause major problems in the Southern and Central Valley of the Eastern areas vs the Plateau/Mountains. Here they seem to have done away with the 6 inches/24 hours requirement. There's also forecaster discretion as Jax noted.

With the new criteria, I think everyone probably gets the Winter Storm Watch, ironically, I've got less chance as of now than other areas because criteria is different here it looks like

I haven't looked at the panels but would assume as we get closer some massive outlier runs start going away. It's also going beyond their useful phase imo.

I started on the AccuWeather forums around 2000ish. For some reason I thought you were there too. Were any of you on those?

I think Winter Storm Watches will hit tomorrow evening from Florence to Huntsville and points northeast to SWVA and points north of there.

QPF and snowfall totals both went up slightly for my area. Looks close to 8 inches imby now and I believe it was around 6.5 to 7 at 12z.

Quite a different set up this time vs then. That was a marginal event for the area with highs the day before in the 50s. The areas that got snow got it fast and it melted 48 hours later. Highs will be in the 30s the day before this system arrives with lows well into the 20s. This is a rare even where a system ushers in Arctic air and it's fresh for another system on its heels. If any areas see rain it would be in unfavorable downslope areas or a very deep system that has an epic warm nose, and even then you're probably looking at freezing rain.

The entire run of the Canadian today. Uploading it because we probably won't see many like it. If you actually mouse over Knox County on Pivatol you'll see 23 inches.

I honestly expected them tomorrow.

I hope this is a day time event for at least some of it. Last year I blanked nearly but managed a lot of snow the prior two years but they were virtually all at night and quick hitters. Even getting 11 inches in March 22, most of it fell before 8am.

The NAM was likely heading this way still, it was just slow rolling and the snow had only arrived in the East as the run ended.