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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    Canadian is going well for Chattanooga too.
  2. John1122
    Yep, there's going to be a snow band that's probably 150-200 miles north to south but because of the angle, someone likely gets left out. I am surprised the window actually opened wider vs 12z and 18z when it was narrowing.
  3. John1122
    Looks like the GFS is going to get the south siders this run.
  4. John1122
    I completely understand that. One year in the 2000s, back around the time Stove was referencing earlier, it literally came a 4+ in snow in every single county in the area except here in my area. It was around 4 events that I just missed to the West, East, North and South. There was about a 10 mile circle with almost nothing and I was in it.
  5. John1122
    I'd actually call the ICON pretty kind to probably 80 percent of East Tennessee.
  6. John1122
    This is the highest res of the NAM nest at hour 60. Actually looks like the RGEM more so than the 12k NAM.
  7. John1122
    Knowing your microclimate is basically the be all/end all for forecasting here.
  8. John1122
    I honestly would've thought downslope wouldn't be a thing with this particular set up.
  9. John1122
    ICON
  10. John1122
    It's rocking. So far the 12k NAM was the outlier at 18z and looks like it's 2 to 1 against it at 00z. The positive, someone is getting a big snow. The Memphis to Nashville are just about locked in across all modeling. The Plateau is close to it as well. NE Tn, SETn and NW Tn SWVa seem to get less on various models.
  11. John1122
    ICON looks like it will also maintain a good hit for basically the whole forum.
  12. John1122
    RGEM.
  13. John1122
    The RGEM is actually south of its 18z and less QPF.
  14. John1122
    This doesn't add up. I've had hours of returns and no accumulation on the 12k, have an inch already on the 3k. 12k NAM 3k NAM
  15. John1122
    Yeah, there's someone wrong with the 12k on that run. At hour 60 it has my area at 27 degrees with a dew point of 3. At hour 60 the 3k has my area at 24 with a dewpoint of 20. That's why there's returns overhead but it amounts to nothing on the 12k. The weird part, it's saturated from 700mb to 850 then it just skews crazily left.
  16. John1122
    The 3k actually has qpf reaching the ground at hour 57-60 while the 12k just shows snow overhead but has no QPF. Models aren't supposed to show virga.
  17. John1122
    Yeah, the whole mid-state above the bottom tier of counties does. It was odd, I had 20dbz+ returns on there for something like 12 hours before getting to an inch. Then the model depicted 30 dbz for 3 hours and I went to 5 inches. I'm going to chaulk it up as continued NAM being the NAM at range for that odd evolution.
  18. John1122
    The NAM is more confusing than it's 18z run just by how the precip field meanders around.
  19. John1122
    Not sure what's going on with Pivatol and the NAM. It's like it's showing virga as snow output.
  20. John1122
    They determined that it takes less snow to cause major problems in the Southern and Central Valley of the Eastern areas vs the Plateau/Mountains. Here they seem to have done away with the 6 inches/24 hours requirement. There's also forecaster discretion as Jax noted.
  21. John1122
    With the new criteria, I think everyone probably gets the Winter Storm Watch, ironically, I've got less chance as of now than other areas because criteria is different here it looks like
  22. John1122
    I haven't looked at the panels but would assume as we get closer some massive outlier runs start going away. It's also going beyond their useful phase imo.
  23. John1122
    I started on the AccuWeather forums around 2000ish. For some reason I thought you were there too. Were any of you on those?
  24. John1122
    I think Winter Storm Watches will hit tomorrow evening from Florence to Huntsville and points northeast to SWVA and points north of there.
  25. John1122
    QPF and snowfall totals both went up slightly for my area. Looks close to 8 inches imby now and I believe it was around 6.5 to 7 at 12z.
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