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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    It's model chaos but you're in as good a spot as any as of now. Maybe better with the Euro on your side currently.
  2. John1122
    3k is a more robust version of it's 12z run. Tons of mixing issues in the far eastern areas. 12k is decently SE of it's 12z run and has more qpf. Knox County is a battle ground on there with snow and freezing rain. I wouldn't be shocked if the SE trend continues. The map is very similar to the SRF mean map.
  3. John1122
    3k NAM has a similar orientation of the precip from 12z, it just has much much more QPF.
  4. John1122
    It's stepping slightly SE this run.
  5. John1122
    The 3k looks a little better/colder than the 12k.
  6. John1122
    It's depicting rain over southern Knox at 39 but the temp is 29 and the Skew T says freezing rain. Not sure why pivotal sees that as rain.
  7. John1122
    It's looking like it's going to remain in the NW/amped camp this run.
  8. John1122
    The NAM is more robust with qpf out west so far.
  9. John1122
    The NAM is much more aggressive with the precip shield early in the run, vs 12z.
  10. John1122
    East Tennessee looks really cold through the entire HRRR. There is probably downsloping showing up along the foothills. Looks like Knoxville is 29 at the end of it's run. Other models are showing more of a warm push though.
  11. John1122
    The SREF mean is a slightly more south version of the NAM.
  12. John1122
    The Tennessee Georgia game was like the models. We started out way ahead. Then against all logic, we fell behind, now let's hope we come back at the end.
  13. John1122
    When we start out that cold we often get a front end thump before it rains. Happened several times in 2015.
  14. John1122
    The SREF is showing a NAMish solution which makes sense, as they share some DNA I believe.
  15. John1122
    I foolishly thought we finally had a simple set up that would work for most of us. But it's Tennessee, so of course not. Models can nail snow in Texas or Oklahoma a month out. Here 6 hours out they struggle.
  16. John1122
    There's a low in Canada over the top. When it's weaker the Euro is further north. When it's stronger, further south. Yesterday at 12z it was 986 and most of Tennessee got a good run. Today it's 981 and half of Tennessee gets blanked.
  17. John1122
    We are approaching the "something's gotta give" stage of modeling. These tracks for the precip shield are well over 150 miles apart 36 hours before it's starting in the western areas. They'll either converge or one set is riding off the cliff into oblivion.
  18. John1122
    Not sure which is more SE the GFS or Euro.
  19. John1122
    If after all this, the upper gulf coast gets the snow storm I'll have to take a winter model watching sabbatical.
  20. John1122
    The Euro is coming in south. Memphis may get blanked if it's right.
  21. John1122
    The mean looks like that because one member dumped well into double digit inches over that area. You may or may not get rained on there due to downsloping. Hopefully not.
  22. John1122
    The CMC has us in the single digits and a monster winter storm brewing over Oklahoma and Texas at the end of it's run.
  23. John1122
    I believe in the case of the RAP there, it's still very early in the storm evolution and it should still have 12 hours or so to go with hopefully a better cold press. But after looking at some of the NAM family members, maybe not.
  24. John1122
    Yes, according to NOAA.
  25. John1122
    Yes, it looks a lot like the 3k NAM. Probably because it is essentially the 3k NAM and the HRRR wrapped in one. It runs as a hi-res deterministic model for the first, I think, 36 hours and finishes to 60 as an ensemble run.
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