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John1122

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  1. John1122
    I believe the mid-state saw some extreme sleet like that during the massive Arctic blast that shut down Texas. A sleet storm in the lower 10s that time.
  2. John1122
    The Canadian has an extreme warm nose at 800mb that causes sleet/freezing rain over the Eastern Valley areas and southern Mid-State. The model is depicting heavy sleet and the 800mb warm nose temp being about 33-34f while the surface temps below it are in the mid to upper 10s. The Eastern Valley/S-Mid-state areas get like .6 to .7 QPF of sleet which would be about 1.5-2.1 inches of sleet with around a half inch to inch of snow on top of it.
  3. John1122
    Canadian moved some towards the SE since 0z but has went insane over Arkansas, dropping 28 inches of snow over parts of it.
  4. John1122
    GFS rings me up for 13 inches. I'll be happy with 33 percent of that but hope like heck it's right.
  5. John1122
    Technically the GFS had it as a perfect Miller A initially and we've wondered through the D5-7 lost phases.
  6. John1122
    I already started one. The event is going to affect the forum area. The only thing left to determine is how much.
  7. John1122
    No morning disco from Memphis yet. That area has the best shot at snow the way it looks now but as always, everything is subject to change.
  8. John1122
    OHX Morning Disco " .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 203 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Some wrap around moisture will linger into Friday night which could end as some light snow showers along the Plateau. Little to no accumulations are expected with those. This weekend will be chilly with highs in the 30s to low 40s but we are going to miss those 30s and 40s because a very cold airmass will be sagging southward on Sunday. We`ve been talking about the potential for some snow early next week and that continues to be the case. Some timing differences persist, but snow showers will be possible as early as Sunday night, but more so on Monday as a couple shortwaves swing through. QPF will likely be light with these disturbances, but snow ratios will be higher than our typical Middle Tennessee snows thanks to the cold air in place. The details on the timing and any snow accumulations will still need to be worked out in the coming days. The one thing that has been consistent is the bitterly cold air with this air mass. Once temperatures drop below freezing Sunday evening, locations will remain there until at least Wednesday afternoon, if not Thursday afternoon. Lows Tuesday morning and Wednesday morning will be in the single digits across the majority of the area."
  9. John1122
    MRX Morning Disco " Early next week will see a dramatic change in the weather brought on by much colder temperatures for first half of the work week. The two main impacts for the first part of the week will be bitterly cold temperatures/wind chill values and possibly accumulating snowfall in the Valley. Fairly high confidence on the very cold temperatures with the worst mornings being Tuesday and Wednesday mornings where ambient temperatures look to drop into the teens, and widespread single digits Wednesday morning. Wednesday morning will be the coldest wind chill morning as the winds will be about 5-15 mph out of the west dropping wind chill values to near zero area-wide and well below zero in the higher elevations. The other aspect of this system will be the possibility of accumulating snowfall across the Valley for Monday through Tuesday. QPF amounts look somewhat limited for this event, but if the temperature forecast verifies it will be favorable for snowfall across much of the area. Probabilistic guidance continues to show a greater than 50% chance to see over an inch of snow along Interstate 40, with better chances to see more snowfall as you go further northwest, with around a 20% to see an inch of snow near Chattanooga. Probabilities of seeing over 3 inches of snow drops down to about 30% along Interstate 40. So currently most ensemble guidance is painting possibly Winter Weather Advisory criteria snowfall amounts for the first half of next week. This is still several days out and the QPF amounts can change quite a bit with systems like this, so make sure to stay tuned to the latest forecast and don`t just pick out the highest forecast snowfall totals you see on social media as the most likely scenario."
  10. John1122
    The Arctic blast is coming and there's a pretty good shot that at least the western half of the forum seeing several inches of snow. Time to fire up a thread so long range discussion can proceed as normal in the January thread. Don't have the ratio'd Euro but I suspect it's better than the 10:1. 06z GFS 00z Euro
  11. John1122
    Huge improvement on the 06z GFS vs the 00z.
  12. John1122
    The Euro was similar to 12z but also got the far eastern areas .3 or .4 QPF. Basically a 2-5 inch event forum wide. Hopefully this thing comes back around.
  13. John1122
    Hilariously, after that it rounds the corner and snows over North Carolina, nearly 360 degree snow around us.
  14. John1122
    Talk about winter pain. Look at this 24hr snow map.
  15. John1122
    To give us a little extra kick, the GFS runs some northern energy down and it also falls apart as it gets to the area. I truly hope I don't have to pay a 30-40 percent above normal utility bill for nothing.
  16. John1122
    The Canadian looks like it's going to be epic, then it just dies in 6 hours. Crushes Arkansas and Memphis though. It never makes sense to me that other areas get huge snow storms and don't need the Gulf, but they just die in this area without a gulf tap.
  17. John1122
    ICON was a little south of 18z and really buried Plateau and points West. But it warmed nosed and was not as good as 12z. GFS is a continued bleh compared to 24 hours ago.
  18. John1122
    GFS pops a low 150 miles of Hattaras and just leaves the energy in the Gulf doing nada. But the GFS also has a progressive bias in opposition to the Euro holding back bias. I believe it's because the GFS has a high stronger than any other model this get shoved south.
  19. John1122
    Our Chattanooga guys and gals want it 27 and 850s at -5c to be sure.
  20. John1122
    Overrunning = no warm nose so good for our south siders as a rule.
  21. John1122
    I still believe the Euro has QPF under modeling issues.
  22. John1122
    The Euro actually looks sort of like the UKIE but faster. The UKIE at 144 looks like it was heading towards the Euro at 126.
  23. John1122
    Also, one of you guys fire up a thread for it. We're gonna get the Arctic air and there will be some snow with it. with Western areas likely locked in for at least 2-4 inches. Time to focus on this in a dedicated thread imo and get more of the 8-15+ day stuff in here.
  24. John1122
    Another difference in the GFS/UKIE is the UKIE has a 1029 mb high in the Plains, the GFS has 1048mb high at the same time.
  25. John1122
    The European/UKIE have had a western bias for a number of years. It could be that. The Euro this year and over the last several years is way more jumpy with various solutions than it used to be too. It used be hard to get it to show a storm unless it was going to actually happen, now it kinda shows every possible solution over a 4 or 5 day span. The GFS tends to be more consistent but that can lead to some major failures on it's part. The Canadian is more like Delmar in Oh Brother Where Art Thou, in that it usually either shows exactly what the GFS does or exactly what the Euro does on a given run, where as it used to always go all in with any big snow or cold event.
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