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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    I think that's a frontal boundary that will reinforce cold air. That's why it's going to be colder tomorrow than today.
  2. John1122
    Brutal cold on the UKIE, seems like it used to be conservative/warm.
  3. John1122
    After looking, there's a warm nose at 925mb that puts Knox County above freezing above the surface for a bit. The ground temp is upper 20s while precip is falling. So there may be some sleet in there.
  4. John1122
    Possibly. I can't see any precip type panels. It's been wound up and warm for a while.
  5. John1122
    UKIE 10:1. Ratio'd should be better. It's came in line with other modeling.
  6. John1122
    The RAP pops a low over SW NC and sends it N as that run ends.
  7. John1122
    Latest model run, 03z RAP. Still snowing 75 corridor and East as of this frame.
  8. John1122
    The WVLT mets did have the infamous "melting into puddles will keep accumulation way down" in regards to I think the March 2022 event.
  9. John1122
    According to how far north you live, looks like you're probably good for 1 to 4+ inches. But the story isn't written yet, I don't believe. There's gonna be someone close to an edge north and south that sees snow a few miles away but doesn't get much.
  10. John1122
    It was actually still snowing over East Tennessee at the end of the run.
  11. John1122
    21z RAP
  12. John1122
    I really like the thickness of the accumulation area with this model. Isn't this going to replace a few other models eventually including HRRR? Yes. It's the new NAM too.
  13. John1122
    18z RRFS A. Has tons of BL issues in the East. The winter weather is still unfolding at this point.
  14. John1122
    It doesn't, in my experience. Elevation usually is a factor in marginal surface temp set ups. March 22 saw 10-12 inches here and elevation made no difference that I could tell. We were very cold throughout. The DGZ does get to the ground here when it's below 0. You'll see ice crystals filling the air even when the sky is clear.
  15. John1122
    The GFS starts out the same as the hi-res models but narrows the QPF field way more than they do as the run wears on. Not sure why that is.
  16. John1122
    The GFS QPF field move N/NW about as much as the RGEM. The same area of N.GA that went from .4 QPF to .1 on the RGEM also did on the GFS. We're talking 25-40 miles. Basically a county width or so.
  17. John1122
    With how it goes around here, the actual worst one is usually the one that shows the most snow!
  18. John1122
    The RGEM precip field moved NW about as much as the NAMnest moved SE.
  19. John1122
    Congrats It's literally been that exact same run from like 140 hours til now around 70.
  20. John1122
    The RGEM is rocking Knox area as it's right on the edge of the mix/zr/sleet.
  21. John1122
    Yes, the RGEM is about 2 counties north of where it was at 12z with its qpf field. North Georgia went from .4 qpf to .1.
  22. John1122
    RGEM looks a little north of 12z.
  23. John1122
    Right now the hi-res snow footprint is much larger than the global footprint. The NAM snow footprint there on the 12k and 3k is 300+ miles north to south. The globals are about half or less of that.
  24. John1122
    The 12k shifted about 25-30 miles and let the precip run further east as well as south. Not as heavy in the heaviest areas but more widespread vs 12z.
  25. John1122
    3k shift about 15-20 miles south with it's snow. North Knox gets 4-5 inches.
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