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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    How cold are you guys?
  2. John1122
    A lot of the hi-res seems to disagree with OHX and their statement about Clarksville having trouble getting to 1-3 inches.
  3. John1122
    12k NAM spit out 12 inches for me, 3k spit out 15 inches.
  4. John1122
    Achievement unlocked.
  5. John1122
    I'm fairly sure he's going to be wrong but we'll see. OHX just said 4-7 with 8+ possible over his 1-3 area.
  6. John1122
    Cross Mtn is going to make a go at 20 inches on the 3k. Not terribly uncommon up there, an every 3 year or so event.
  7. John1122
    I'm at 14 inches on the 3k at hour 32 with snow still flying.
  8. John1122
    That seems early for that area but they will probably make a run at 5-7 inches.
  9. John1122
    wrong thread.
  10. John1122
    3k is at 15 inches over Cross/Frozen Head by hour 28. I'd guess it's really keying on upglide into the peaks there.
  11. John1122
    Years ago there was an elk who was in the road by my house every day. TWRA came and put up a trap the size of a 5 horse trailer for it. They finally caught it and drove it all of three miles away and released it. The next day it was back. Now they only remove ones that are around the 4 lane in town that don't move on.
  12. John1122
    Even though it benefits me the most, I truly hope the NAM isn't right for everyone else's sake.
  13. John1122
    I can already tell the 18z 3k NAM is going to go for 12-16 inches over Cross Mtn like it did at 12z. It's like a crazy ensemble member that skews the mean in how it skews the NBM.
  14. John1122
    The ice in some areas is the precip ending as freezing drizzle as moisture falls below the DGZ. It happens fairly often in big snows but I don't recall seeing it in powdery snows. The sounding does say "best guess p-type as freezing drizzle in my area but I think the model is having issues, as two skew-t's within a mile or so of each other in my area are vastly different in the upper levels regarding temps.
  15. John1122
    I believe this is the HRRR showing downsloping off Cross Mtn that affects things all the way into SW Va. Cross Mtn is 3300-3534ft in the area just left of the arrow start, and it quickly drops to around 1000 feet straight up the heart of Norris Lake there, though the lake is surrounded by 1300-1600ft ridges.
  16. John1122
    HRRR lee side low popping and keeping East Tennessee under convective snow showers.
  17. John1122
    I believe it could be due to flake size. The snow will be much wetter in those areas. Those big flakes often cause that too.
  18. John1122
    Towards the 28-30 hour mark the HRRR is giving what almost looks like convective snow shower cells around the area.
  19. John1122
    The HRRR gives the entire state around 2+ inches except for the tiny SE corner of Polk Co. Imagine being a snowlover and living there.
  20. John1122
    The soundings support snow all the way to the border. Very edges of the foothills have sub freezing column from 700 to the surface.
  21. John1122
    It will, you'll get some virga. West of you it's snowing with air temps lower than that and dps below 0.
  22. John1122
    The HRRR appears to have heavy snow all the way to the NC border by HR 22. Chattanooga/N.GA are in all snow too.
  23. John1122
    It's in the NAM family and maybe the same mechanics that are causing the NAM to be NW with the precip shield are what it's seeing. The 15z SREF mean was in about the same arc too.
  24. John1122
    The dewpoints have crashed into oblivion in the mid-state. I wonder if that is having any effect on some lower QPF outputs for there.
  25. John1122
    25 this morning and currently 34 degrees. The true Arctic air is over the Mid-State and hasn't made it to here yet.
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