John1122

It looks like you're just west of a heavy band that's been rolling for several hours. A friend in Stoney Fork on the back side of Cross Mountain in far SW Campbell had an inch before dark at around 1300 feet elevation.

Sorry buddy. It's been NNW flow this evening and it usually works out here and it did today. Figured you'd get a couple inches too.

Still cranking out there. Back to full blown heavy snow at 29.9 degrees. Well under 1/4th mile visibility.

Been pouring down again for the last hour. Over 2 inches now. Here, the sticking on the ground line is about 1300 feet. Or was when I went down to town about an hour ago. I'd wager some of those 5-7 inch totals some high res models were trying to spit out on the mountain tops here will verify. Above 2500 feet there was 3 inches at 4pm.

Have about 1.25 inches now. Still coming down pretty hard.

That was one heck of a snow shower that lasted a good while. Slacking off now. But got up towards half dollar sized flakes for a while and put down nearly 3/4ths in on the grass and leaves.

Quarter+ sized flakes still ripping down. It's breaking into the valley, a friend in Rocky Top said it was coming down hard there a few minutes ago.

Heaviest snow of the day coming through right now. Around 1/4th mile vis. Hopefully we can get a few more of these towards dark.

Ground is covered again. Was covered around 10am but melted off. Above me 500 feet it looks like a winter wonderland in between thick snow showers.

There's not a lot of NW flow here, it's almost N or NNW flow. Very little SE movement in anything,

Coming down pretty well here now. Hopefully it can maintain this into the evening as it hooks up with Lake Michigan and starts flowing.

Looks like radar returns should get here in the next 45 minutes and future radar seems to show them sticking around until tonight. I've often found in this situations in the last hour or so before dark things start to really pick up.

MRX added a WWA for here. Looks like things should pick up this afternoon and evening. Nice looking moisture upstream.

That will have to rise from about 800 feet to 3000ish as it moves right across my area.

The best would probably be the zone forecast by county. Should be a Southeast Sevier, Southeast Blount etc. Those are or were written by actual Mets at one point and not computer generated. Even then, the mountain weather is very unpredictable and there's very few actual data points. That honestly goes for a lot of the area. Knowing your micro climates in East Tennessee is about as good a way as any to speculate on the forecast. For the Smokies the next 48 hours, extremely wintery, especially above 4000 feet is probably a good rule of thumb.

Honestly, the point forecasts aren't all that great a lot of the time either.

This is the actual LeConte NWS point forecast. It's for 6499 feet as close to LeConte as you can click. Tonight Rain and snow likely before 10pm, then snow. Patchy fog. Low around 22. Breezy, with a west wind around 25 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Friday Snow. Patchy fog before 1pm. High near 25. Blustery, with a northwest wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible. Friday Night Snow before 10pm, then snow showers, mainly between 10pm and 4am. Patchy fog before 3am, then patchy fog after 5am. Low around 15. Wind chill values between -2 and 6. Blustery, with a north wind around 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Saturday A chance of snow showers before 10am, then a chance of flurries between 10am and 1pm. Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, with a high near 22. Wind chill values between -3 and 7. Blustery, with a northwest wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

I'd say that could happen at LeConte and around it. It's the best location for upslope in the entire southern Appalachians. I've seen it get 24-36 inches from upslope before but I'm not sure it will this time, but it's entirely possible. Other areas above 5000 aren't as favorable, according to how they are situated. Honestly it's really above 6000 that seems to be the most prone. I've seen LeConte get 20 inches of upslope but Newfound Gap gets only 5-6.

The NAM and 3k NAM are very determined for my area. I suspect they aren't handling this well. LeConte probably won't get 6 feet of snow either.

Nashville goes with the WWA for their Plateau areas. They mentioned the Eastern Plateau as being favored. Nothing here from MRX yet, I'll doubt they issue anything for my area.

I do expect a WWA for Cumberland and Fentress counties from the NWS Nashville office.

They just use the model NMB or whatever it's called and pretty much stick to their guns, regardless of actual falling weather.

JKL says it best in their AFD this morning. The favored NWF areas will see snow, perhaps a lot of it. Other areas will probably need at least a WWA based on where bands off Lake Michigan set up. If you get one, you're liable to get a few inches, if not, dusting to maybe an inch in their CWA. Right now, they just have no idea where that band may be.

It's not been great at any range this year tbh.

Big time thunder here. You don't often see tornado watches/severe warnings butted up to winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories, but we do seem to get them on occasion.