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John1122

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  1. John1122
    GFS gives a very nice NW flow/back side event for the Eastern Rim, Plateau and Mountains, as well as parts of the E valley and SEKY/SWVA.
  2. John1122
    I didn't even realize there was a chance of snow tomorrow morning. It's supposed to be 33 here tonight but it's already down to 28.
  3. John1122
    Yep. The 50/50 was gone entirely that run on the Euro and it was a big ole nothing for us.
  4. John1122
    The strength of the 50/50 low will tell the tale on the upcoming system. When it was stronger the Euro bombed us, when it was weaker, the Euro blanked us. If it does happen and it's cold enough, there would be a heavy snow area that's virtually impossible to predict at this range because you have to nail the exact storm path to get it. It would be one of those 10 miles apart from bare ground to a foot possible scenarios.
  5. John1122
    Snow on top of snow in 1996. I believe this is also a major missing data period for MRX.
  6. John1122
    From the site Fountainguy talked about in the January thread. It's more accurate with some events than the NWS storm reports. Here is the blizzard of 1993 and the February 1998 events. I believe MRX showed something like 9 inches in Claiborne County for the blizzard. It's much more accurate for my area than most of the NWS stuff on both events. Especially since the official record shows a trace of snow total for the month of February 1998 for my area and Scott Co. Misreporting is why snowfall averages fell so dramatically.
  7. John1122
    A 20 inch bullseye right over me? What could possibly go wrong??
  8. John1122
    I wasn't sure. MRX horrid record keeping means you never know. They list my area and Scott Co with a trace of snow total for February 1998. This is the Nashville NWS map and one from a news station in Kentucky. The one from Kentucky doesn't have its pink far enough south and west. The whole Northern Plateau was 15+ inches, the Nashville map cuts off just west of me. MRX seems to not acknowledge this event in its data but they did at one time in their significant weather events. I just can't find those any more.
  9. John1122
    Nashville is pretty good about putting out maps. MRX doesn't really seem to have them and their records are exceptionally inaccurate regarding snow. Their official record lists no snow in the Tri-Cities from the event. It lists 2 inches in Morristown.
  10. John1122
    At the time, that was a heartbreakers of a system to watch and be so close to such a monster. Then it happened here a few weeks later and the power was off for a week. Still an awesome event.
  11. John1122
    No thunder but a lot of wind with this system.
  12. John1122
    This is false. GaWx has shown before using his records that the atmosphere reflects the phase, even when it is in the CoD.
  13. John1122
    I was off by 24 hours in my time below freezing. It was 108 here. 1 am Friday until 1pm Tuesday.
  14. John1122
    Those coastals get trapped and turn into 50/50 lows during the -NAO. We just didn't have one this time. The pattern broke down faster than normal too. Usually a block that delivers this kind of cold, delivers multiple shots. No go this time. We still have all our prime snow climo left. Doesn't mean we see another flake but I'll be shocked if we don't get a good storm in the area, even if it doesn't land imby.
  15. John1122
    I think down this way we want one good storm each year and get really happy with more. Imby we can go a month with snow on the ground but it's much more common to get snow that's gone 48 hours later. Winters for me lately have been feast or famine. Either well above normal snow or virtually nothing. The virtually nothing years are made even worse because they've tended to turn wintery in spring and be cold too late. Those winters also seem to coincide with locations around the globe that rarely see anything, getting unusual snow or even blizzards.
  16. John1122
    I live in a reasonably snowy area of the forum and my normal for December is 3 inches. Pretty much everywhere in the state that got 2 inches already are above normal for December snow. My average goes up to 7.5 in January and 9.5 in February, then 3.5 in March. March is a snowier month than December on average.
  17. John1122
    Certain parts of the forum, because it's laid out so far West to East, depend on different drivers for snow to large extent. Mountain ranges also significantly affect things. Our golden ideal is +PNA/-NAO/-AO. That pattern is more likely to promote Southern sliders that don't warm nose and get basically everyone from Dyersburg and Memphis to Chattanooga and Bristol VA. But there are other ways to skin the cat. The Pacific can drive the whole bus for us all, but especially Plateau and West. The NAO has a tougher time overcoming a hostile Pacific but a neutral Pacific can let it make hay. The Pacific fueled the extreme winter of 2014-15. That was very nearly all EPO driven. Those are still broad pattern drivers but smaller drivers ultimately decide the actual weather. That's why it can rain in a favorable patten and snow in a bad one. Give me a banana high in Iowa and Pennsylvania with a low in the gulf and I'll take my chances in any winter month.
  18. John1122
    The GEFS had a 127 inch mean in the Sierra's last night at 0z.
  19. John1122
    He's hanging out on the south facing side.
  20. John1122
    I've finally made it above freezing, 33. Spent around 132 hours below. Not the longest stretch ever, but still impressive.
  21. John1122
    That was the most bizarre storm evolution I've maybe ever seen on a weather model, on the 0z GFS. At one point it's snowing in literally a 360 degree circle around East Tennessee/SWVA and SE KY as this 24 hour snow map shows. The crazy thing is, it raining here, and in Western NC/Northern Georgia but changes to snow there while avoiding pulling cold air into just that small portion of our area and it avoids changing to snow here. It's not even a valley warm nose because Chattanooga changes and gets 3-4 inches while the snowhole continues along I-40/I-81 and into SE Kentucky. It'll be gone by 06, but it's just crazy how wild these model runs can get at times.
  22. John1122
    Amazingly enough, after all the radar returns have gone, it's snowing here and has dusted the cars. The ground was still snow covered from the other day.
  23. John1122
    I would have never thought you missed out on the 3 Jan events in 1984. I know Tazewell got less snow from each but that they had snow each time out. I think 1 inch in the Anafrontal, and 2 inches the 16th and 6.5 the 18th. February was warm overall but the 4 or 5 cold days were extremely cold with a big snow here. 1989 is sort of similar to this time frame as well. Except 1989 had much more cold in December with multiple cold shots. That's something I've noticed over the years. We don't often have a single extreme cold shot. If we get an extreme cold shot, which to me us generally days where the high is low 20s or colder and the low is around 0 or less, we tend to get multiple shots of it. The last two years were snowy here but lacked any extreme cold imby. I know the western areas got extreme in 2021. In 1989 it happened but close together. We had sub zero lows. Went back to near 40 two days later and then another, bigger cold blast happened and extreme cold returned a week after the first. So I believe there is a good chance extreme cold returns at some point in winter.
  24. John1122
    I'm a big believer in weather repeating. November 1983, wishy washy with very warm and very cold weather. Ended up -.2 here or basically normal. November 2022, wishy washy with very warm and very cold weather. Ended up -.5ish here. Or basically normal. December 1983. Warm with several days more than +10. Then big cold hit Christmas week. Single digits highs and well below 0 lows but barely any snow to show for it. It warmed to AN by Dec 28th but did get really cold for New Years. December 2023, very warm with multiple very above average temperatures. Then of course the extreme cold we've had with most of us not getting a lot of snow. Gonna warm up towards New Years January 1984 after a cold first couple of days, warmed to AN, peaking at the mid 60s by Jan 10th. Then the bottom fell out. 4 inches of snow on the 11th in an Anafrontal situation. Stayed just BN, which is plenty cold for Mid January, upper 30s and upper 20s. Then another 3 inches of snow fell on the 16th. Stayed cold, 7 inches fell on the 18th and the bottom dropped out on the thermometer. 3 days in a row with -10s for lows and teens for highs. Warmed up on the 23rd and the snow melted off by the 26th. Warm to the end of the month. February 1984. Mostly warm, but had 4 BN days in a row from the 5th to the 9th and it snowed 7.5 inches and we had a -4 and a -9 low. March 1984 was cold. Snow fell on 12 different days and there was 2.5 inches on March 22nd. Lows in the 10s 5 different days. The March 22nd snow was two days after a 76 degree high on the 20th. So hopefully we can get a similar story to unfold here after a pretty similar late fall and first week of winter of 1983.
  25. John1122
    That's better than me! Just bitter cold. The clouds socked in and it stayed at 24 again today. My heating bill dollars to inches of snow ratio is going to be skewed badly after the last 4 days.
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