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John1122

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  1. John1122
    The GFS had a crazy sharp cut off on a storm last year in a similar place and it happened. I got 5 or 6 inches and Eastern Campbell and Western Claiborne got about an inch. But that was a case where it was snow or rain. There was plenty of precjp around. It was just a ptype issue.
  2. John1122
    3z RAP was a little better than the 21z.
  3. John1122
    The GFS does have support from the HRRR and the HRW hi res model.
  4. John1122
    It's amazing how much of a carbon copy of the 18z it was with its snowfall map. At this point its either crazy or a genius with very little in between.
  5. John1122
    The snow maps honestly look like the Cumberlands in many runs, are acting like the Smokies normally do with snow dying out in Western NC.
  6. John1122
    A half inch to 5+ is my modeled range 48 hours out. That's how crazy this system is.
  7. John1122
    Gonna choose to hug the HRRR for now. The higher the resolution the model, the better for mby. It may be finding the low atmosphere level snow better. These are simulated radar runs and snow will be falling from atmosphere levels lower than the radar can find in some cases.
  8. John1122
    The craziest thing to me is my high is predicted to be 6 Friday for the daytime, and 14 for Saturday but nothing below 0. Rare to get daytime highs in the single numbers and stay above 0.
  9. John1122
    I think a lot of models are slowing the cold up as it hits the western Plateau, just enough for the moisture to race away from the front.
  10. John1122
    MRX has been referring to this as December cold not seen in decades. 2014 and 2015 had -10s across a lot of the area. But that was Jan and Feb.
  11. John1122
    The NAM is working towards the GFS. The 12k is getting snow into East Tennessee now.
  12. John1122
    Euro was slightly better but not by a lot.
  13. John1122
    Hopefully it improves by this time tomorrow. If not, I expect the GFS will head its way.
  14. John1122
    RGEM wasn't good at all. Just bone dry except for a small bullseye around the central plateau. Barely gets .2 total qpf for most areas.
  15. John1122
    I'm not sure why the NAM loses the dynamics of the storm as soon as it hits the western Plateau. It looks healthy as all get out then just dies out.
  16. John1122
    They've got several mountains up to around 2300 feet. It actually looks similar to this area in spots.
  17. John1122
    It's at the very end of it's range but the RAP has most of it's moisture behind the front with the storm diving SE.
  18. John1122
    We are still maybe 24 hours from the NAMRGEM wheelhouse on these type of events. I expect the GFS to either throw in the flag or get others onboard in 36 hours or so.
  19. John1122
    Looking at the vort maps, the 500mb vort takes a similar path on the Euro/CMC/GFS it's just much more consolidated on the GFS and dips slightly further south.
  20. John1122
    It definitely looks like it on the GFS. Looks like it moves SE then back north across the Ohio Valley. You rarely see them attached to this potent a cold front. This is basically as Siberian express. Probably not as severe as the 1982 version though.
  21. John1122
    I've been including it here since the thread covers the winter threats from Dec 23rd to 30th. The Euro was closer to the CMC but very suppressed at 0z I believe.
  22. John1122
    The current OBS/Radar are a perfect example of how massively models struggle with the size of a precip shield. It's listed on the known biases of the GFS for areas just west of the Appalachians.
  23. John1122
    You're unlikely to ever see a low take that track that it does on the Canadian and have such a small precipitation shield. That's a big winter storm track for the Eastern half of the state especially.
  24. John1122
    Well the GFS drops SE than goes almost straight north as it strengthens. Still keeps the idea of being a nearly all anafrontal event.
  25. John1122
    The GFS looks like it's going full on clipper here with the LP moving SE.
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