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John1122

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  1. John1122
    I don't trust any model that quickly breaks down huge blocks. It could happen but they usually jump the gun by a few weeks.
  2. John1122
    The EPS continued its trend of Pacific cooperation. Good look in the EPO/PNA areas and great Atlantic too. I'd love to see that establish for a good 4-5 weeks from mid-December into mid to late January.
  3. John1122
    Euro Control is suppressed and cold with a system that actually gives the Northern Gulf Coast states a decent snowfall.
  4. John1122
    The CFS is what it is, but it's been "break out the vodka" cold into mid-January.
  5. John1122
    The EPS has been trending towards a + PNA. If that continues and comes to pass, along with the -AO/-NAO that isn't just a recipe for potential, it's normally a near lock for cold/wintry weather. The EPS is also reeling in the set up, unlike the GFS who is kicking the can all over the place from run to run.
  6. John1122
    Does any site have the old GFS or is it abandoned? It was really good last year with storm timing. It saw a couple from beyond D12 that verified.
  7. John1122
    Robert from WxSouth said the extreme blocking being shown would cause model madness but added that basically the physics of how climate works would win out. He said the large -NAO would send storms across the south. He said they might be winter storms for anywhere from Texas to Tennessee or the deep south to North Carolina, but that the pattern would be ripe after mid-month as the -NAO sets up shop.
  8. John1122
    Models almost universally see pattern changes too quickly. Either breaking them down or beginning them. While it can snow here and has many times in the first half of December, I never really start looking for serious winter threats until after December 15th-20th.
  9. John1122
    Gonna end up at about -.8 for the month imby. Norris OBS station is -1.4. Oneida also ended BN. Looks like most of the mid-state ended up around -.5 to +1ish. Western areas are about the same as the mid-state. East of 75 looks like the furthest from normal, it was generally +1 to +3 in the far eastern areas.
  10. John1122
    https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/cold-anomaly-stratosphere-polar-vortex-volcanic-cooling-winter-influence-fa/
  11. John1122
    Once water is injected into the stratosphere it reflects sunlight from above and keeps heat trapped below the stratosphere, which significantly cools the stratosphere itself. In this case, the cooling was record breaking. It occurred over the southern hemisphere and worked its way south toward the pole as their winter wore on towards spring. The colder the stratosphere over the poles the tighter the polar vortex tends to be. A study found that if the vortex is cold and tight over the south pole, it tended to be warmer and more jostled over the north pole. It also tended to feature a -NAO for decent periods in winter. As the vortex over the north pole gets jostled and the stratosphere there is warmed, it ejects cold air to the south. It doesn't always end up here but it goes somewhere into the northern hemisphere. However the -NAO pattern tends to lean colder here and more importantly, it tends to suppress the storm track towards a Miller A type track in winter. So having a PV that isn't locked tight and keeping cold air trapped well to the north should benefit our winter weather chances.
  12. John1122
    2.16 inches of slow, soaking rains overnight. Hopefully that's it for fire danger this season. Had a pretty big one last week on Cross Mountain in Caryville.
  13. John1122
    I'm surprised there's another one this quickly. Seems like it just upgraded last year.
  14. John1122
    The jostled PV and -NAO are signatures of the cold Southern Hemisphere in the upper levels that was discussed back in summer after the volcano put the water vapor up there and it caused the upper levels there to go extra frigid.
  15. John1122
    That was an issue in 1989. It was constantly cold enough for snow but it was a dry cold for the most part.
  16. John1122
    No mercy for the Commodores last night. People are being overly critical of Milton. He had a few overthrows but a few drops too. The way we ran the offense last night with very little short passing felt like Heupel throwing deep to set the run. Which worked really really well.
  17. John1122
    That was a shocker. 22 turnovers and no Jordan-James and still won by double digits, leading the entire game. I'd never have believed that would happen.
  18. John1122
    Happy Thanksgiving to all as well. Great day of basketball and football. I know Jeff likely has a different opinion, but I'd love to end the Kansas winning streak tomorrow.
  19. John1122
    Today was the 6th day in a row with a low in the 10s, as it got to 19 this morning, it is also the 6th day in a row for Tazewell. Oneida has 7 days in a row in the 10s. It's 33 here right now. Looks like it's 34 in Middlesboro and basically it's 5-10 degrees warmer at the other official reporting sites around the area. We slipped to -1 on the month after today. Will probably stay around that to close the month. The forecast looks like mostly highs below normal and lows above normal the rest of the month.
  20. John1122
    Forgot to add to that post, after yesterday we've erased the huge + in my area and I'm now -0.5ish for the month. I noticed Knoxville has went from something like +12 to +1. Should slip BN there in the next few days but possibly go back AN due to cloudy nights to come. The wishy-washy period around and just after Thanksgiving weekend will determine the +/- for the month for most of us. One day the models show it frigid, the next they are warm.
  21. John1122
    Yes, several cold waves hit in November and December. I can specifically remember going deer hunting in 1989 and it was snowing and in the mid 10s. That was around November 24th. By December we had a brief very cold blast around the 4th with highs in the 30ish range and lows in the low teens. Then it warmed up for a few days, and on the 9th another front moved through and it stayed cold the rest of the month until just before New Years. Unfortunately it was bone dry for the most part until later in the month. We got a massive arctic front around the 19th that laid down about 4 inches of snow in a hurry. Then upslope got me to around 6 inches. Above 2500 feet the upslope laid down a solid foot during the month and it didn't melt. You could skate on ponds the week of Christmas. December 23rd we had a high of near 0 and a low of -14. We had 6 days below 0 that month. Unfortunately the rest of the winter was bleh. We didn't have a really notable winter again until 1993. That long preamble aside, it was 15 this morning. In 1989 we had 4 22s, 3 21s, and 3 mornings in the teens. But due to some very warm weather in between cold snaps we only ended up around -1 for Nov 1989.
  22. John1122
    Chilly 17 this morning. Reminds of November 1989.
  23. John1122
    Had a little light snow over the last hour or so. Looks like some in SWVA and areas East of here as well in to NE Tn. Abington and Tazewell are reporting light snow.
  24. John1122
    We were something like +10 for the first 12 days of the month. In the last few days it's already shaved down to +4 here. We will be well BN for the month by the time this cold snap eases up around next Monday. Not sure if we will be able to recover back to AN or not, the CPC basically closes the month out with normal to below normal temps in the 8-14 day range. The GFS and GEFS have additional cold shots black Friday into that Monday and also in the D14-16 range. I feel pretty good about November closing out BN overall. Usually, but not always, a sign that there will at the least be a stretch of very memorable winter weather in the valley region.
  25. John1122
    I'm sure it will quickly warm, but it's 32 right now with precip getting closer. The models showing some ice may be on point.
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