John1122

Went to full on flooding here. Dry ground likely made for faster runoff.

The storm ended up building over me and it's been raining for over an hour now.

Thunderstorms are firing up but there's a gap just upstream from me and it looks like I may slip right through the middle. After several years of epic rains I figured the dry weather would eventually hit. It definitely is now.

This wouldn't be bad and looks like a typical weak/mod LA Nina. I'd guess last winter's map would look similar in our area. Snowfall for the entire Valley is normal in weak Nina's. Above normal to our NW, which is our cold source region.

The 40s this morning felt great. Hopefully the heat this week is less humid than last week. Last week was the most humidity I've ever felt here that didn't result in a popup storm.

Last year this one fired up in April. I think the big March snowstorm for most of us may have sated the enthusiasm for a while. The hot weather has me longing for winter and this thread is always one I look forward to just to speculate on better weather days. The La Nina watch has me excited, even though it's only around a 59%, chance for early winter La Nina. It would likely be weak and weak Nina is usually good times for the area. Moderate Nina's tend to see the Plateau and west do well, strong is more often mid-state and west. Weak tends to see a weaker SE Ridge and we generally see a good storm track Valley wide. The QBO has risen two months in a row now. So it's negative cycle is finally coming to a close it would seem. Usually it rapidly heads positive once it starts. The last time we saw the trend towards positive in May/June was 2015-16. We torched that December but had a cold and snow January that came in around 4-6 degrees BN. February came in right at normal with a really good snow event. So the rising QBO doesn't mean doom for winter. Long range models, which are notoriously volatile and inaccurate are showing either torch the whole winter or a relaxation in January towards cold. They are consistently showing the West as being the area most AN though. I'll take that, as we mostly suffer only when the West is BN. Their AN forecasts would suggest ridgeing in that region. We just don't want stubborn troughing to set up over the West. Models are generally showing continued dry weather through winter but BN precip in winter often means colder weather is around and isn't a negative for snowfall. AN precip here usually means big warm storms that just produce a lot of cold rain.

Are we still heading for a Nino? I was looking at CPC and I believe there's a La Nina watch out again for Winter 2022-23 unless I misread.

Looks like I'm going to get skipped just tot he north and just to the south. Tough break with the weather on the way next week. May have to go into watering mode.

Managed to get to 91 yesterday and 92 today. Lows have gotten down to around 70.8. Not fun but not as bad as the valley areas. Another observation, a mother bear and cub passed through my back yard yesterday afternoon, headed towards the deep hole in the creek at the far end of my property.

Made it to 89 yesterday. Started cloudy with a storm just west of me this morning. It's clearing off now. I expect to break 90 today.

Quite a chill this morning, 50 degrees. It's nearly 2pm and my house cooled down enough that my AC hasn't even kicked on today.

Perfect conditions for the potential meteor storm. I've seen a few passing by already. If it develops into a full blown storm it should be great. It's rare they happen and extremely rare they happen on a new moon.

After a final monsoon-like shower around noon to 1, its cleared out and feels like early October outside now. Breezy and cool.

Had an extremely heavy shower with some thunder overnight. Even though I watered plants, going to finish May well AN on rainfall. Though over 4 inches of it fell in a couple of days early in the month.

Visitor this week.

It's just flat out pouring down here. After having a high chance of rain that fell flat Friday, Saturday and yesterday, I watered yesterday evening, guaranteeing heavy rain today.

We had a couple of false starts. Don't know if anything will head this way overnight or not. Been a points north and east event this time around.

Beginning to rain here. Will be curious to see if it quickly pops severe as MRX has indicated. Right now it's just a few drops.

Thundering a bit here but absolutely no sign of rain on the radar yet. Looks like a potentially wet 40 and north especially over the next 24 hours.

Thin clouds giving a hazy look to the moon, but it appears that its beginning to get shadowed on the bottom side.

Ended up with a solid 45-60 minutes of moderate to heavy rain from that storm. It was a real soaker.

Getting a good popup thunderstorm right now.

Saw a lot of lightning this evening but the storms have rotated from SE Kentucky into Scott County. One pulsed for about 5 minutes just NE of me but it died quickly.

Crazy how you flipped from epic wet to that dry.

Another round of drenching rain underway now, but 0 thunder in this one. Looks like the dynamics for t-storms are out of here now. Hopefully things clear out some tomorrow.