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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    The mean looks like that because one member dumped well into double digit inches over that area. You may or may not get rained on there due to downsloping. Hopefully not.
  2. John1122
    The CMC has us in the single digits and a monster winter storm brewing over Oklahoma and Texas at the end of it's run.
  3. John1122
    I believe in the case of the RAP there, it's still very early in the storm evolution and it should still have 12 hours or so to go with hopefully a better cold press. But after looking at some of the NAM family members, maybe not.
  4. John1122
    Yes, according to NOAA.
  5. John1122
    Yes, it looks a lot like the 3k NAM. Probably because it is essentially the 3k NAM and the HRRR wrapped in one. It runs as a hi-res deterministic model for the first, I think, 36 hours and finishes to 60 as an ensemble run.
  6. John1122
    It's the NAM upgrade coming to full time use later this year. Maybe it has the same biases the NAM does.
  7. John1122
    UKIE. 10:1 may be right here because it gets up into the lower 30s in the East. Probably a 75 mile shift SE.
  8. John1122
    The UKIE took a jump Southeast and is more in-line with the RGEM. The NAM family seems to be in the NW camp by itself now.
  9. John1122
    Looks like it was more than close!
  10. John1122
    Well maybe it won't get better. It's warm nosing like crazy and has rain in Crossville and mid-40s up the Eastern areas.
  11. John1122
    The new NAM replacement is out to 53hrs and it's a little south of the NAM but not by a ton. Its snow shield is almost right along 40 in East Tennessee and west of I-81. But it will likely be getting better for the East towards 60. Memphis gets 4 inches of snow and changes over to sleet and freezing rain on it. What a nightmare that would be, if zr gets involved.
  12. John1122
    RAP at the end of it's run.
  13. John1122
    12z FV3 still snowing heavily Plateau and east at 60.
  14. John1122
    ICON keeps things pretty steady, it may be wrong but it's remarkably consistent.
  15. John1122
    GFS is furthest south because it's flatter, weaker and fastest out it looks like.
  16. John1122
    GFS was basically a repeat of 0z. Its the furthest south right now with the NAM being the furthest North. Usually they are in closer agreement like the UKIE and Euro, but those two are also at odds.
  17. John1122
    It's on a very wonky island right now.
  18. John1122
    The ICON went back into super beast mode,
  19. John1122
    RGEM is a boom again though not as much around Memphis.\
  20. John1122
    The RGEM and ICON look around what all other modeling besides the NAM/UKIE are showing. Still not to the end yet though.
  21. John1122
    Looks like all of the Eastern valley except for Bradley and Polk are in the Winter Storm Watch. We may come close to a state wide watch.
  22. John1122
    I'm honest to goodness not even sure what to make of that NAM run. Sends a massive dry warm nose north while a monster snow/sleet and freezing rain band sits over the same area for a good 12 hours then pops a low off the South Carolina coast, but the precip band still sits in the same place for a few more hours.
  23. John1122
    The NAM has went crazy, amped up and raining.
  24. John1122
    The 06z NAM is having the dewpoint issue again. It has my DP at 0 at hour 45 and just above the surface at around 900mb it has the dewpoint at -30 degrees.
  25. John1122
    The new Hi-Res NOAA model that is in it's early stages. It goes to 18hrs most runs but goes to 60 some runs. This will replace the NAM/RAP/HRRR. Where it had gotten to through 60.
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