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John1122

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  1. John1122
    12Z GFS is full 1983. The December of ultimate frustration as Daniel noted. That year we'd get cutters, then ice box cold. Looks like single digits and low teens in the afternoon on Christmas Eve after a rain to snow front this time out. Sounds like 2020. Major cold, but once again, GFS at range is not reliable so far.
  2. John1122
    The Canadian has the first storm the GFS is showing but squashes soon after it gets going in the gulf.
  3. John1122
    That GFS run is a major winter storm for us all. It's legendary for underdoing precip shields for gulf lows, often having them hundreds of miles South of the area where they verify. A LP in that spot at that strength usually has a good precip shield up to Lexington. That said, suppressed at range is always better. That's assuming you can trust the gfs at all, which is a big assumption.
  4. John1122
    If it could be believed (I don't believe it) the suppressed look and storms passing to the South is generally what we want at this range. Odd to see Miller A's just cross the Gulf and die but no more odd than anything else the GFS is selling today.
  5. John1122
    The GFS Op these days.
  6. John1122
    I never see ads on here. Use adblock on your browser. It's free and works well.
  7. John1122
    The mean on the GEFS actually very slightly went up on the snowfall potential on the back end of the system.
  8. John1122
    We will see where it goes, but I wouldn't give a lot of credence to the GFS right now. One run its a snowstorm. One run its a heatwave. The 12z had us in the upper 10s and low 20s 1am Christmas morning. The 18z has temps in the mid 60s at 1am Christmas morning. I don't think I've ever seen a model perform so wildly with basically every run.
  9. John1122
    The long range discussion linked yesterday summed it up nicely. The GFS isn't letting cyclones feel the effect of blocking properly and when it doesn't, it throws off the entire run.
  10. John1122
    Honestly, the GFS shows almost every possible solution over a given 24-48 hour period these days, to the extent that at least one of it's solutions will probably be correct. As noted by the CPC, it's been plowing storms northward into -NAO blocking. That causes every domino after that to fall askew for the model.
  11. John1122
    It may not produce but it's hard to ask for a better looking pattern than what we have on tap beginning about a week from today. Christmas won't be spent at the grill, flipping burgers and wearing shorts to say the least according to the EPS.
  12. John1122
    The GFS and Canadian are getting into agreement with a few bouts of wintry precip for 40 and north as the holidays approach. The pattern definitely supports a frozen precip outcome for our area. It would be an early event for most of the area, as non-elevated areas usually see their first snowfall between December 28th and January 6th on average across the region. Last year the GFS was really good at sniffing out storms in the longer range. It was rarely great at their strength, often overamping everything like the NAM. This time frame will be the first true winter threat test for the new core they've updated.
  13. John1122
    Merry Christmas Eve!
  14. John1122
    Another late run major winter storm with rain to ice for snow for the areas Carvers mentioned earlier but it eventually spreads all the way to the mountains. Bitter cold air behind it. Lows in the single digits and low teens, even colder in deeper snowpack areas in Kentucky. Obviously not set in stone but just shows the potential we have over the Dec 16th and beyond period.
  15. John1122
    Nice wrap around event on the GFS that run. Inside 200 hours now.
  16. John1122
    If the Euro is correct, we will at minimum see a snow showery day coming soon. The 850s will be frigid and squeezing out moisture.
  17. John1122
    Just a bit of a run to run difference on the GFS. There's a 45 degree difference in our area from 18z to 00z. I don't know which, if either will be correct but right now it's just not a usable model for anything beyond 5 days. The GEFS doesn't agree with the op, at all. The Canadian is unchanged. The cold arrives and we have snow showers around the 15th/16th.
  18. John1122
    I believe it had Memphis at 107-109 for several days on end. It verified about 6-10 degrees cooler.
  19. John1122
    I've noticed it, even before the upgrade, struggling with long range temperature extremes. I remember it went on a streak of advertising desert southwest temps for the middle part of the country in September. The heatwave happened but the GFS was 5-10 degrees too warm with it when it saw it in the longer ranges. Winter is much more volatile and even harder to predict from day to day, because temperatures can vary much more greatly in winter vs summer.
  20. John1122
    The cold arrives around the 15th and looks like it sticks around as we approach Christmas on the Ens. We get a snow event on the Canadian just after the shift to cold. The GEFS puts some of the coldest air, relative to normal, in the world into the Lower 48 as we approach the 1st day of solar winter.
  21. John1122
    The OP GFS wasn't great as it tries to dump the cold into Mexico and it struggles to move East. Other models, including the GEFS not so much and the cold progresses East just fine. I've seen some mets talking about the GFS having major long range warm bias issues with the new version.
  22. John1122
    Starting to get some looks like the last two years with cold banked against the Apps, BN over our region and AN over the Carolinas and Georgia.
  23. John1122
    Yep, the GEFS started to cave towards the EPS with a favorable Pacific as well, at least for now. All the major ens models are now on board with it.
  24. John1122
    At 240 the GFS is +10 to +12, the Canadian is -10 to -12 over the area.
  25. John1122
    Torch city on the gfs. It's either going to coup the European/Canadian models or fail in epic fashion.
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