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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    It's odd. Modeling didn't change but that's literally the exact opposite of what the previous shift said 12 hours before regarding cold and all areas except the far southern valley staying snow.
  2. John1122
    The Canadian shows a great band from Lake Michigan all the way into my back yard. I got 7 inches in about 4 hours from one of those back about 15 or so years ago.
  3. John1122
    The 0z NAM nest and RGEM are looking really good for my area. I won't believe until I see it but I'm gonna hope they're right.
  4. John1122
    NW flow tends to be like lake effect snow. You can rack up and a few miles away gets almost nothing. This will be an opportunity to learn more about your microclimate. East Tennessee has more than almost any place in the United States.
  5. John1122
    Pure NW flow per MRX. They noted near perfect 320 degrees wind direction. If we can hook up with Lake Michigan that could allow more widespread banding to move into the Central Valley of East Tennessee.
  6. John1122
    Two nasty ice storms in the early 80s here but the king imby is Christmas 1998. 2 days of light to moderate rain with a peak temp of 28. It was supposed to get above freezing but didn't. The sounds in the woods, of cracking and limbs breaking at night is eerie. It was a no power Christmas. I know just south and west of here had a major freezing rain event in either 2014 or 2015 when i got pounded by 3 inches of sleet and 4 or 5 inches of snow. Places just north of me that stayed all snow got well over 12 inches. Those big sleet and ice events usually happen in western areas or the Carolina side of things.
  7. John1122
    How do you normally do in flow snow set ups? Higher is always better but you need to be in a favorable location for NW flow.
  8. John1122
    It and the 12k are. Encouraging that MRX said this one was actually trending colder and that it should be all snow for everyone except possibly the southern areas. They mentioned advisories for my area and Southwest VA. They also mentioned the vorts Holston talked about earlier. These will have the potential why snow squalls that spread into the valley areas the way things look now.
  9. John1122
    I got NAM'd that 0z run. 4 to 5 inch bullseye imby.
  10. John1122
    The NAM doesn't go far enough out to capture the NW flow event yet. The other 12z models added to totals after hour 84.
  11. John1122
    Best wishes and hopefully they and you are back home safe and sound soon.
  12. John1122
    Euro is probably better than the other models for my area. Not quite the 20 inch bomb from a few days ago but a solid 2ish inches.
  13. John1122
    The UKIE, Canadian and GFS all give my area 1-2 inches this Friday. Gonna hold out hope on it at least being a good snow in the air kind of time and hope it over performs here. I love winters where it's snowing often, even when it's not heavy snow. I've gotten quite a bit of snow the prior two winters and several winters in the 2010s but it's usually been from heavier events. We used to have 4 or 5 days out of a week where we'd get .5 to 1 inch in snow showery days. That doesn't happen nearly as often as it used to. I remember a time in the late 70s or early 80s where it snowed an half an inch to an inch every evening for something like 8 days in a row.
  14. John1122
    This is one of the most extreme forecasts I've ever seen. Not sure how it doesn't trigger a blizzard warning. Tonight Snow, mainly after 10pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature rising to around 30 by 5am. Strong and damaging winds, with a south wind 45 to 55 mph increasing to 55 to 65 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 95 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible. Monday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature falling to around 21 by 5pm. Strong and damaging winds, with a south wind 70 to 75 mph decreasing to 60 to 65 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 115 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 30 to 36 inches possible. Monday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 19. Very windy, with a south wind 35 to 45 mph, with gusts as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 9 to 13 inches possible. Tuesday Snow, mainly before 4pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 26. Very windy, with a southwest wind 40 to 45 mph decreasing to 35 to 40 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 16 inches possible. Tuesday Night A 50 percent chance of snow, mainly before 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16. Very windy, with a southwest wind 40 to 45 mph, with gusts as high as 70 mph. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
  15. John1122
    GFS gives a very nice NW flow/back side event for the Eastern Rim, Plateau and Mountains, as well as parts of the E valley and SEKY/SWVA.
  16. John1122
    I didn't even realize there was a chance of snow tomorrow morning. It's supposed to be 33 here tonight but it's already down to 28.
  17. John1122
    Yep. The 50/50 was gone entirely that run on the Euro and it was a big ole nothing for us.
  18. John1122
    The strength of the 50/50 low will tell the tale on the upcoming system. When it was stronger the Euro bombed us, when it was weaker, the Euro blanked us. If it does happen and it's cold enough, there would be a heavy snow area that's virtually impossible to predict at this range because you have to nail the exact storm path to get it. It would be one of those 10 miles apart from bare ground to a foot possible scenarios.
  19. John1122
    Snow on top of snow in 1996. I believe this is also a major missing data period for MRX.
  20. John1122
    From the site Fountainguy talked about in the January thread. It's more accurate with some events than the NWS storm reports. Here is the blizzard of 1993 and the February 1998 events. I believe MRX showed something like 9 inches in Claiborne County for the blizzard. It's much more accurate for my area than most of the NWS stuff on both events. Especially since the official record shows a trace of snow total for the month of February 1998 for my area and Scott Co. Misreporting is why snowfall averages fell so dramatically.
  21. John1122
    A 20 inch bullseye right over me? What could possibly go wrong??
  22. John1122
    I wasn't sure. MRX horrid record keeping means you never know. They list my area and Scott Co with a trace of snow total for February 1998. This is the Nashville NWS map and one from a news station in Kentucky. The one from Kentucky doesn't have its pink far enough south and west. The whole Northern Plateau was 15+ inches, the Nashville map cuts off just west of me. MRX seems to not acknowledge this event in its data but they did at one time in their significant weather events. I just can't find those any more.
  23. John1122
    Nashville is pretty good about putting out maps. MRX doesn't really seem to have them and their records are exceptionally inaccurate regarding snow. Their official record lists no snow in the Tri-Cities from the event. It lists 2 inches in Morristown.
  24. John1122
    At the time, that was a heartbreakers of a system to watch and be so close to such a monster. Then it happened here a few weeks later and the power was off for a week. Still an awesome event.
  25. John1122
    No thunder but a lot of wind with this system.
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