John1122

The best would probably be the zone forecast by county. Should be a Southeast Sevier, Southeast Blount etc. Those are or were written by actual Mets at one point and not computer generated. Even then, the mountain weather is very unpredictable and there's very few actual data points. That honestly goes for a lot of the area. Knowing your micro climates in East Tennessee is about as good a way as any to speculate on the forecast. For the Smokies the next 48 hours, extremely wintery, especially above 4000 feet is probably a good rule of thumb.

Honestly, the point forecasts aren't all that great a lot of the time either.

This is the actual LeConte NWS point forecast. It's for 6499 feet as close to LeConte as you can click. Tonight Rain and snow likely before 10pm, then snow. Patchy fog. Low around 22. Breezy, with a west wind around 25 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Friday Snow. Patchy fog before 1pm. High near 25. Blustery, with a northwest wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible. Friday Night Snow before 10pm, then snow showers, mainly between 10pm and 4am. Patchy fog before 3am, then patchy fog after 5am. Low around 15. Wind chill values between -2 and 6. Blustery, with a north wind around 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Saturday A chance of snow showers before 10am, then a chance of flurries between 10am and 1pm. Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, with a high near 22. Wind chill values between -3 and 7. Blustery, with a northwest wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

I'd say that could happen at LeConte and around it. It's the best location for upslope in the entire southern Appalachians. I've seen it get 24-36 inches from upslope before but I'm not sure it will this time, but it's entirely possible. Other areas above 5000 aren't as favorable, according to how they are situated. Honestly it's really above 6000 that seems to be the most prone. I've seen LeConte get 20 inches of upslope but Newfound Gap gets only 5-6.

The NAM and 3k NAM are very determined for my area. I suspect they aren't handling this well. LeConte probably won't get 6 feet of snow either.

Nashville goes with the WWA for their Plateau areas. They mentioned the Eastern Plateau as being favored. Nothing here from MRX yet, I'll doubt they issue anything for my area.

I do expect a WWA for Cumberland and Fentress counties from the NWS Nashville office.

They just use the model NMB or whatever it's called and pretty much stick to their guns, regardless of actual falling weather.

JKL says it best in their AFD this morning. The favored NWF areas will see snow, perhaps a lot of it. Other areas will probably need at least a WWA based on where bands off Lake Michigan set up. If you get one, you're liable to get a few inches, if not, dusting to maybe an inch in their CWA. Right now, they just have no idea where that band may be.

It's not been great at any range this year tbh.

Big time thunder here. You don't often see tornado watches/severe warnings butted up to winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories, but we do seem to get them on occasion.

It's odd. Modeling didn't change but that's literally the exact opposite of what the previous shift said 12 hours before regarding cold and all areas except the far southern valley staying snow.

The Canadian shows a great band from Lake Michigan all the way into my back yard. I got 7 inches in about 4 hours from one of those back about 15 or so years ago.

The 0z NAM nest and RGEM are looking really good for my area. I won't believe until I see it but I'm gonna hope they're right.

NW flow tends to be like lake effect snow. You can rack up and a few miles away gets almost nothing. This will be an opportunity to learn more about your microclimate. East Tennessee has more than almost any place in the United States.

Pure NW flow per MRX. They noted near perfect 320 degrees wind direction. If we can hook up with Lake Michigan that could allow more widespread banding to move into the Central Valley of East Tennessee.

Two nasty ice storms in the early 80s here but the king imby is Christmas 1998. 2 days of light to moderate rain with a peak temp of 28. It was supposed to get above freezing but didn't. The sounds in the woods, of cracking and limbs breaking at night is eerie. It was a no power Christmas. I know just south and west of here had a major freezing rain event in either 2014 or 2015 when i got pounded by 3 inches of sleet and 4 or 5 inches of snow. Places just north of me that stayed all snow got well over 12 inches. Those big sleet and ice events usually happen in western areas or the Carolina side of things.

How do you normally do in flow snow set ups? Higher is always better but you need to be in a favorable location for NW flow.

It and the 12k are. Encouraging that MRX said this one was actually trending colder and that it should be all snow for everyone except possibly the southern areas. They mentioned advisories for my area and Southwest VA. They also mentioned the vorts Holston talked about earlier. These will have the potential why snow squalls that spread into the valley areas the way things look now.

I got NAM'd that 0z run. 4 to 5 inch bullseye imby.

The NAM doesn't go far enough out to capture the NW flow event yet. The other 12z models added to totals after hour 84.

Best wishes and hopefully they and you are back home safe and sound soon.

Euro is probably better than the other models for my area. Not quite the 20 inch bomb from a few days ago but a solid 2ish inches.

The UKIE, Canadian and GFS all give my area 1-2 inches this Friday. Gonna hold out hope on it at least being a good snow in the air kind of time and hope it over performs here. I love winters where it's snowing often, even when it's not heavy snow. I've gotten quite a bit of snow the prior two winters and several winters in the 2010s but it's usually been from heavier events. We used to have 4 or 5 days out of a week where we'd get .5 to 1 inch in snow showery days. That doesn't happen nearly as often as it used to. I remember a time in the late 70s or early 80s where it snowed an half an inch to an inch every evening for something like 8 days in a row.

This is one of the most extreme forecasts I've ever seen. Not sure how it doesn't trigger a blizzard warning. Tonight Snow, mainly after 10pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature rising to around 30 by 5am. Strong and damaging winds, with a south wind 45 to 55 mph increasing to 55 to 65 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 95 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible. Monday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature falling to around 21 by 5pm. Strong and damaging winds, with a south wind 70 to 75 mph decreasing to 60 to 65 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 115 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 30 to 36 inches possible. Monday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 19. Very windy, with a south wind 35 to 45 mph, with gusts as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 9 to 13 inches possible. Tuesday Snow, mainly before 4pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 26. Very windy, with a southwest wind 40 to 45 mph decreasing to 35 to 40 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 16 inches possible. Tuesday Night A 50 percent chance of snow, mainly before 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16. Very windy, with a southwest wind 40 to 45 mph, with gusts as high as 70 mph. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.