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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    FV3 still a big hitter almost statewide but the northern edge of the precip is further south and totals shrank overall through 78 but it's still snowing in Eastern areas. Skipped 84 so not sure if it was still snowing then or not.
  2. John1122
    Not during the winter! I actually sleep around 3-4 hours a day. I never seem to need more. As for the GFS. Not sure. Maybe storms in the Gulf are effecting the moisture transport. It often under performs on precip shields, well known bias of the model and all the models are trending south with the precip. This is actually similar to my worst snow bust memory back in the 1980s when we were forecast to get a foot of snow one Sunday night from a miller A, woke up the next morning expecting no school, not a flake of snow or drop of rain had fallen. Winter Storm warnings busted all across East Tennessee. Precip didn't make it over the Tennessee line. I don't remember any specifics that caused it, but I imagine it could have been storms robbing moisture.
  3. John1122
    WPC model preferences were a general blend from 00z with less weight to the NAM because it said the NAM was actually too warm at 850 in their opinion. For the 100th time, mentioned that the GFS was progressive.
  4. John1122
    As crazy as it is, it looks like the winds never turn S or SW at either 700 or 850 on there. On the NAM they are screaming out of the South/Southwest and that pumps in the moisture. The GFS went from having the highest dew points to the lowest. They never get out of the 20s for anywhere north of 40 during the whole time the low is passing by. Which would be great if the moisture was being transported north like you'd expect from a Gulf low.
  5. John1122
    Looks like the GFS is going to slip by and not even send rain north of 40. Hilarious that it shows a Gulf system that warm noses the 850s into Ohio and rockets temps to near 50 on Sunday now, not producing a bigger precipitation shield. This thing throws up 3.5 inches of precip into Arkansas and it just dies out after. The next 2 runs of models will tell us if the GFS is leading the way or if it's completely insane.
  6. John1122
    NAM 3K is a nice snow event and scary ice event from Arkansas to NE Tn.
  7. John1122
    The RGEM should be wintry, it has a 1038 high in Illinois and an 1038 in Central Ohio with the storm moving along the Gulf into Northern Florida. Surface temps are below freezing from Cumberland Gap to Dyersburg. Freezing rain is falling in those areas. It just doesn't go far enough out yet to see what happens after.
  8. John1122
    06 NAM holds serve pretty well, getting centrally into it's wheelhouse with this thing. Nightmare level freezing rain in parts of the forum.
  9. John1122
    Current model results. GFS/UKIE mostly bad for us all. Canadian and Euro medium events. FV3/NAM big hitters
  10. John1122
    The Euro was just dry that run. Huge cut in QPF. My area gets .5-.75 qpf. Books through and is gone. Not my favorite run but once again continues the 0z trend of being worse than the 12z runs.
  11. John1122
    Ratio'd the following totals through 84. Tri 5-6 inches. Knoxville 1-2 inches. Crossville 1-2 inches. Northern Plateau 3-4 inches SE KY 1-3 inches. SWVA 2-4 inches Not much to speak of outside that. Not seen if anything continues beyond 84.
  12. John1122
    Euro backed down by the look of things. 2-6 inches. The northern fringe really got eat up. SEKY and areas of SWVA a county or two further north than Tri are down in the 2-3 inch range.
  13. John1122
    72 the low is stronger and slightly colder than 0z last night.
  14. John1122
    Through 48 the Euro is the same basically as the 0z from last night at 850 and with surface features.
  15. John1122
    Coming into the final few runs of globals that matter over the next 12 hours or so, the ENS are probably beyond their useful point now too. This should be firmly within range of the NAM/RGEM tomorrow. The Euro is high res enough to also be among the useful models for the next 24 hours too.
  16. John1122
    They actually get big 15-20+ inch events more than you'd think. A large part of their snow average is usually built on one big storm every couple of years. We tend to comparatively nickel and dime our way to our averages. I average around 20 inches a year but if I can manage more than 10 inches from any event I will almost always end up above normal for that year because I get a lot of small flow snows like the 2 incher the other day.
  17. John1122
    The ratio'd map at Pivotal has Tri at 9 inches. So it seems to work pretty well based on your math, which I trust more.
  18. John1122
    Ratio'd I get 15 inches on the FV3. 10 inches of snow depth on the ground at hour 90. I've had 2 13 inch events since 2010. Not went over 13 since the 1990s where I had 3 over 15.
  19. John1122
    They people who get lucky enough to get snow to fall will see something you rarely ever see if these 4 and 5:1 ratios verify, snowflakes will be the size of the palm of your hand or larger. I've seen that maybe two times in my life. Dynamic cooling event in February 1998 when I got 17 inches of wet wet snow and one day in late April it started snowing at around 40 degrees and flakes as large as my hand were hitting the ground. It snowed 2 inches in about 35 minutes then melted off about 2 hours later.
  20. John1122
    FV3 system at 186 has some major wrap around snow over the western 2/3rds of the forum. Not sure if that had been showing up out west or not.
  21. John1122
    The FV3 has two waves of snow. Heavy rain switches to heavy snow from the Plateau east towards Tri by hr 60 and it's extremely heavy snow. It moves out and another wave moves into Tennessee by 78, heavy snow around BNA at that point. Heavy snow in East Tennessee by 84 then it slowly winds down from the Plateau eastward over the next 12 hours.
  22. John1122
    Just saw the post comparing the FV3 on November 29th to the run just now. It is almost identical from 9 days out.
  23. John1122
    The Euro will run out to 84 by around 1:15-1:30 most likely.
  24. John1122
    The FV3 replaces the current GFS next month from what I understand. We're either going to find out it's better than the GFS or find out about it's biases.
  25. John1122
    We had a decent snow shower a little bit ago. There's a 20 percent chance of them overnight.
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