Floydbuster

My whole Twitter feed is insane. So many fan-created "risk" maps that show their "dream" severe scenarios. It's hard for me to differentiate between actual SPC maps and teenage kids with their wishcasting. Nevertheless, it is definitely something to watch especially for the south and mid-Atlantic.

Thank God your family is alright. Here's hoping we luck out and avoid severe weather as much as possible the next few months.

While I agree with the sentiment, this event (from my point of you) didn't look that impressive until late afternoon. I'm still surprised by how powerful some of these twisters were in western Ohio.

I have to say, I did *not* expect Western Ohio to take such a tornadic strike. I didn't think it was quite warm enough for the clash with the front to produce these kinds of twisters that they experienced in Indiana and Western Ohio today.

I'm shocked there are that potent of storms out west. Here in NEOH Summit County I just went for a walk outside and there was a chill in the air, definitely didn't feel like muggy springtime instability.

This pattern is tiring folks out here in Northern Ohio week after week. It's like every two weeks it's the same thing. First we get beautiful weather, then a cold front ruins it but stresses us all out thinking we're gonna have bad storms. Then they usually aren't half as bad as the local mets think (atleast near Cleveland area), and then it's cold for a week. Rinse and repeat.

Our Cleveland mets forecast seem off this morning. They showed the potential for heavy storms/precipitation around this time and it's quiet as a mouse on the entire radar of the whole state of Ohio. My guess is that this event is much further south and not as significant as expected. The severe weather folks on Twitter were going crazy and I thought it was a bit too much hype. The forecast models simulated radar showed what is currently near Evansville would be 10x worse and over Mansfield at this time. I don't know what implications this may have on the forecast the next 24 hrs for Northern or Central Ohio.

Thank you for the response. The "app" I showed is typing "Cleveland Weather Hour by Hour" into google. The other apps are the "weather" apps that people have on their I-Phones. Of course, I use the official NWS website and read the advisories, but of course I'm far more seasoned in tropical weather and hurricanes despite living in the snowy midwest.

That's what I'm saying as well. Everyone is acting as if the entire area is in for a wild ride, and I actually don't think it'll be that bad. Last Friday, before the switchover to rain and gusty winds, we had a good 2 inches fall in about an hour and a half. Compare that to perhaps 4 inches in 2-3 days time? That's nothing to me. I certainly think they could have higher accumulations near the lakeshore, but further south, probably not nearly as much. Also, everyone has been very confused because we have local weather apps on phones showing no more than 30% chance of precipitation here and there the next two days, yet we have a Winter Storm Warning issued warning people to prepare for "5 to 10 inches" of snow. Lots of conflicting forecasts. Look here...Cleveland weather Friday and Saturday.... Friday shows no more than a 50% chance of precipitation around 8am this morning for Cleveland, tapering off. Then on Saturday, it tapers off further to 0%. How the hell does Cleveland get 5-10 inches of snow Friday and Saturday from near zero precipitation chances? Anyone wanna help me out on this one?

People are hyping this one up big time. Nearly every school in Northeast Ohio is closed for Friday. Color me skeptical. I think this snowfall is being vastly overestimated.

Thanks for the link. Yeah, stronger winds certainly hit closer to the lakeshore. The two strongest gusts here near Akron were 51 and 54 mph both gusts within less than twenty minutes of each other around 4:30-5am Saturday morning. I guess what made it a little better (atleast down here) was that it wasn't a constant roar with gust after gust after gust.

Really? Wow! I'm down in Southern Summit County and it wasn't near that bad.

Welp, that was interesting. Here in NE Ohio, everyone I know lost power bad during the straight-line wind thunderstorm that blew through in late August of last year. The forecasts showed winds gusting 50-60 mph, and we have been on edge since Thursday. Every single person I talk to says they're "done with snow and winter", and I personally detest winter weather, so we were happy that we had no snow accumulation. I should note, we had a quick 1-2 inches in an hour around 4pm Friday night before turning to rain and melting away. Thankfully, it's past us, so now we just get some arctic air. Overall, the local mets hype about winds didn't get *quite* as bad as we had been fearing. For those more seasoned in winter weather than myself, was the storm weaker than expected? Did the winds underperform in NE Ohio or was it what you guys expected?

Atleast we will get the arctic temperature drop....before it warms up again and becomes a rainy four months.

I noticed my local NWS forecasts in the short-term are being slowly lowered. Snow totals dropped from an inch or two down to less than a half inch. Wind gusts dropped from up to 50 mph to up to 35 mph. We're actually in a bit of a dry slot now from heavy rain. I'm skeptical of any huge event, especially in the notorious mild El Nino winters.

I hope this busts. I'm not in a snow mood, and I certainly don't want to lose power. Here's hoping it stays away from Ohio and stays weak!

They didn't have a plane there at the time of landfall. The eye started to lose it's luster right at landfall, but based on the observed damage, my guess is that this came ashore as a Category 5. In fact, I'm guessing the peak intensity offshore was higher than the operational 165 mph. It probably was about 175 mph offshore, and came ashore in the 160-165 mph range. A devastating Category 5 strike on Mexico.

I think the smaller the radius of maximum sustained winds, the most concentrated the wind gusts are. Not to mention the lower the pressure, you wind up with a steep pressure fall the smaller the eye is.

Wow!

I agree! I wouldn't be surprised if Tammy makes a run at Category 3 strength.

Hurricane Otis is the strongest hurricane to strike the Pacific coastline of Mexico on record, and the only one to make landfall at Category 5 intensity.

000 WTPZ63 KNHC 250626 TCUEP3 Hurricane Otis Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023 125 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023 ...CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE OTIS MAKES LANDFALL NEAR ACAPULCO MEXICO... Satellite imagery indicates that Otis has made landfall near Acapulco, Mexico around 125 AM CDT (0625 UTC). The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 165 mph (270 km/h), and the minimum central pressure is estimated at 923 mb (27.26 inches). Otis is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. SUMMARY OF 125 AM CDT...0625 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8 99.9W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brown/Kelly

BULLETIN Hurricane Otis Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023 100 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023 ...EYE OF CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE OTIS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR ACAPULCO MEXICO... ...CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE LIKELY WHERE THE CORE MOVES ONSHORE... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 99.8W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES

Everyone missed this. No model support for this, no recon scheduled for landfalls, no reliable radar sites, no storm chasers. This is 2023, not 1923. I think this hurricane will remind all of us meteorological aficionados to remain humble.