Floydbuster
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Everything posted by Floydbuster
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NHC official forecast now shows a landfall in South Texas. -
Yeah it will be fascinating to see if Beryl's smaller size allows it to crank back up faster after the Yucatan.
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Recon still showing a solid Cat 4. Definitely battling shear on satellite though.
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Oh I don't think that, at all. But the way the models dismissed Beryl as being a tropical storm near Jamaica is hogwash.
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There is still time for Beryl to weaken significantly due to the shear (remember, it is still July despite this unusual occurrence), but I am beginning to doubt the models that showed this thing falling apart to a tropical storm by the Cayman Islands and the Yucatan. I think we now need to know as the possibility that Beryl may be a more serious hurricane in the Western Gulf of Mexico than we have entertained the last couple of days. https://x.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1808285217377210879
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Yikes. That looks a heck of a lot better than earlier today.
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Beryl actually doesn't look that bad, all things considered. It wasn't gonna be the Cat 5 beast it was leaving the Windwards, but it looks large enough to where its battling the shear well, so far.
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Likely, but I'm guessing this is still a solid Cat 4 right now.
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Wow Beryl is *much* stronger than I thought. I think we may be getting too bullish on weakening. It will likely weaken but at this rate, likely still a potent hurricane until the Yucatan.
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Recon about to make a pass.
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This is true. I think Frances 2004 would not cause the same kind of damage if it occurred today.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EtB-lXAmxYg
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The question becomes if Beryl increases in size and becomes less susceptible to the shear. Nevertheless, a large 115 mph hurricane could be worse than a tiny 145 mph one.
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Video on Beryl https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1uQrABvISuM
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I recall Hurricane Ian had the most terrifying eyewall replacement cycle, maintaining Category 3 intensity and then rapidly strengthening into a Category 5 near the Dry Tortugas. I also think back to Hurricane Isabel in 2003 and Hurricane Frances in 2004, both had constant eyewall replacement cycles.
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Tropical Storm Chris—40mph/1005mb
Floydbuster replied to WxWatcher007's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Besides the heavy rain threat, this would set Invest 97L to become Debby. -
Major Hurricane Beryl
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The Cleveland mets again seem surprised by the lack of severe weather in Northeast Ohio. They keep looking at these future radars and the muggy weather and then we get a few showers rolling through but nothing like what they seem to imply ahead of time.
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Beryl looks on her way to major hurricane status fast. Good thing we will have two aircraft flying into the storm later today.
