Floydbuster

Recon still showing a solid Cat 4. Definitely battling shear on satellite though.

Oh I don't think that, at all. But the way the models dismissed Beryl as being a tropical storm near Jamaica is hogwash.

There is still time for Beryl to weaken significantly due to the shear (remember, it is still July despite this unusual occurrence), but I am beginning to doubt the models that showed this thing falling apart to a tropical storm by the Cayman Islands and the Yucatan. I think we now need to know as the possibility that Beryl may be a more serious hurricane in the Western Gulf of Mexico than we have entertained the last couple of days. https://x.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1808285217377210879

Yikes. That looks a heck of a lot better than earlier today.

Beryl actually doesn't look that bad, all things considered. It wasn't gonna be the Cat 5 beast it was leaving the Windwards, but it looks large enough to where its battling the shear well, so far.

Likely, but I'm guessing this is still a solid Cat 4 right now.

Wow Beryl is *much* stronger than I thought. I think we may be getting too bullish on weakening. It will likely weaken but at this rate, likely still a potent hurricane until the Yucatan.

Recon about to make a pass.

This is true. I think Frances 2004 would not cause the same kind of damage if it occurred today.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EtB-lXAmxYg

The question becomes if Beryl increases in size and becomes less susceptible to the shear. Nevertheless, a large 115 mph hurricane could be worse than a tiny 145 mph one.

Video on Beryl https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1uQrABvISuM

I recall Hurricane Ian had the most terrifying eyewall replacement cycle, maintaining Category 3 intensity and then rapidly strengthening into a Category 5 near the Dry Tortugas. I also think back to Hurricane Isabel in 2003 and Hurricane Frances in 2004, both had constant eyewall replacement cycles.

Besides the heavy rain threat, this would set Invest 97L to become Debby.

Major Hurricane Beryl

The Cleveland mets again seem surprised by the lack of severe weather in Northeast Ohio. They keep looking at these future radars and the muggy weather and then we get a few showers rolling through but nothing like what they seem to imply ahead of time.

Beryl looks on her way to major hurricane status fast. Good thing we will have two aircraft flying into the storm later today.

Good morning Beryl.

I thought about Hurricane Danny in 2015, but remember...Danny was in August during a very strong El Nino period and had colder than average sea surface temperatures and very high wind shear, likely even higher than what Beryl *might* encounter down the road. Beryl is in abnormally favorable conditions during what is expected to be an extremely active and favorable hurricane season, where CSU is forecasting that we will exhaust the name list. To me, that makes Beryl a much greater threat to the Caribbean than Danny ever was.