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Floydbuster

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Everything posted by Floydbuster

  1. I know, right? Looking at satellite I'd say this is approaching hurricane intensity. Recon says it's discombobulated.
  2. I'm still not sure we are finished yet. I think a late October or November major hurricane is still possible.
  3. Here's a morning video on Julia for anyone interestedhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZtWd1s4fm_g
  4. Another big bust with nearly every model was the awful intensity forecast. Even the ones further south never showed anything like a sub-940 mb hurricane with 155 mph winds. These models made it seem like conditions would be so god awful that the best Ian would do is 125-130 mph.
  5. I think it's horsecrap. The same thing with Hurricane Maria in 2017. The National Hurricane Center's official death toll was much lower than the allegedly high death toll some in the media stated which has still never been substantiated.
  6. Agree. I saw this starting to happen in the Caribbean when the GFS was organizing Ian way too fast, while it seemed to be getting stronger more at the pace of the EURO. Not to mention nearly everytime I follow the GFS on something, the EURO ends up correct.
  7. What about the "Hurricane Severity Index" thing from a few years back? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Severity_Index I actually think Hurricane Ian may have ranked rather high on that one, because it takes into account size and strength. You may be interested in this study from 2008 about "return periods" for hurricanes. Basically, it takes factors into account based on wind and pressure at how often a hurricane of similar wind or pressure should hit an area. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/21/2/2007jcli1772.1.xml#i1520-0442-21-2-403-t03 For example, as you can see, a "Charley" type storm should hit the United States every 13.7 years. We should see another Camille storm by 2032, which would be the next ten hurricane seasons. They note the rarity of the 1935 Labor Day storm. One that seems overdue by all standards and accounts is Hurricane Hugo. I also think Georgia's major landfalls of over 100 years ago make that coastline overdue. Picture a tiny pinhole eye over Padre Island, TX or Key Largo, FL with a sub-900 mb pressure. That'll probably be the next '35 Labor Day-type storm.
  8. I think the only future U.S. Category 5 landfall that isn't a posthumous upgrade would have to be something long-tracked and constant Category 5 (like if Irma had never gone to Cuba and had struck the Keys as a consistent Category 5) or if the pressure wound up so low (something like 912 mb) with corresponding winds to where it would be painfully obvious the storm was landfalling as a Cat 5.
  9. I guess the word on the street among the people I know who don't track hurricanes that they "heard" the NHC wouldn't call Hurricane Ian a Category 5 for "insurance purposes". I actually don't think Ian ever achieved Category 5, despite what many have stated on twitter. Michael was a different story, getting to 919 mb on the North Gulf Coast in mid-October, blowing trains off their tracks, and insane sustained winds. Ian was a high-end Cat 4 no doubt, but the NHC would have upgraded had the information indicated a Cat 5. It didn't.
  10. In recent years, the worst damage definitely seems to come from the storm surge more than the wind. Although location matters, too. I don't know how the building codes would fare in areas of Texas or the Carolinas from a 150 mph storm compared to Florida.
  11. Looks like DeSoto City is next up, then what is left of the eye will head generally towards Melbourne.
  12. 136 kt FL, 121 kt unflagged SFMR in the Southeast quad. Holy smokes.
  13. 000 WTNT64 KNHC 281659 TCUAT4 Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 100 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 ...1 PM EDT IAN POSITION UPDATE... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA... A River, Estuary, and Coastal Network station at Redfish Pass, Florida, recently reported sustained winds of 75 mph (121 km/h) and a wind gust of 100 mph (161 km/h), while a Weatherflow station near Sanibel Island, Florida, recently reported sustained winds of 77 mph (124 km/h) and a wind gust of 107 mph (172 km/h). The Earth Networks Station at the Naples Grande Beach Resort recently reported a wind gust of 112 mph (180 km/h.) The Redfish Pass station has also reported a pressure of 969 mb (28.61 inches). SUMMARY OF 100 PM EDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.4N 82.4W ABOUT 35 MI...80 KM WSW OF FT MYERS FLORIDA ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES $$ Forecaster Beven
  14. Sanibel Island just had a gust to 100 mph, webcam showing either wind obliteration or storm surge covering the island.
  15. Teens playing in the surf on the Fort Myers webcam another reason the voting age should be changed to 35. But I digress.
  16. 000 WTNT64 KNHC 281358 TCUAT4 Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1000 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 ...10 AM EDT IAN POSITION UPDATE... ...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS NEARING THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA... Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that hurricane-force winds are approaching the coast of Florida near Sanibel Island. The Southwest Regional Airport in Fort Myers recently reported a wind gust of 62 mph (100 km/h). SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.2N 82.7W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF NAPLES FLORIDA ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES $$ Forecaster Beven
  17. 9am video for anyone interested. I certainly didn't expect this type of storm. One for the ages for SW Florida no doubt. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KdnFILp2Ur0
  18. Channeling Charley 2004...but much larger.
  19. NHC is thinking this makes a Category 4 Florida landfall.
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