Floydbuster

This is a run of the mill August Cat 1 Florida hurricane. As American as apple pie. However, that slowdown could be a really historic flood risk. Awful for areas to be impacted.

Hopefully it doesn't. Honestly, I'm just not feeling this one. But the rainfall will be prolific for sure.

Well the system near Cuba will be interacting with land. The wave in the Central Atlantic could have carte blanche to strengthen through the Caribbean and into the Gulf of Mexico, eventually.

For the threat of a more serious hurricane event, I would be more concerned with the wave in the Central Atlantic.

The NHC must really be seeing this thing flaring as it nears the Greater Antilles.

Well, most active season or hyperactive like this year is likely to be, have a significant hurricane threat around August 28th or so. August 28, 2004 - Hurricane Frances becomes a Category 4 hurricane in the Central Atlantic headed west towards land August 28, 2005 - Hurricane Katrina a Category 5 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico headed for New Orleans area August 28, 2008 - Hurricane Gustav organizing in the Caribbean, to become a Category 4 storm before striking Cuba August 28, 2012 - Hurricane Isaac lashing the Gulf Coast August 28, 2017 - Hurricane Harvey flooding Texas after striking as a Category 4, Hurricane Irma forming in Eastern Atlantic August 28, 2019 - Hurricane Dorian organizing north of Greater Antilles, headed towards Bahamas August 28, 2020 - Hurricane Laura moving inland after striking Gulf Coast as a Category 4 hurricane August 28, 2021 - Hurricane Ida strengthening into a Category 4 hurricane before Gulf Coast landfall August 28, 2023 - Hurricane Idalia organizing south of Cuba, eventually to be Category 3 hurricane for Western Florida Last year, I took note of when we were approaching August 20th or so and I thought "I bet we get something notable the next ten days" and sure enough, we got Hurricane Idalia.

One month from today I am guessing we will have a major hurricane threat for landmasses in the Western Atlantic.

I have tracked enough of these things to know that you don't get a setup like this, with the odds of hyperactivity, and a Category 5 beast in early July just to have the rest of the season underperform. Its coming, big time. That switch is gonna flip so fast around August 18th to August 25th.

We are getting super close to the flip of the switch and when it happens...watch out.

https://x.com/NWSCLE/status/1812317615278440476

The 19th video update on this very historic early season Atlantic Hurricane.

I think there is a chance the winds could be bumped up to 85 or 90 mph in the final report. Those were some furious winds along the coast.

I am actually a little surprised the NHC kept the intensity at 80 mph. Beryl is producing some nasty winds. Of course, strengthening storms can force more winds down to the surface than steady state or weakening ones.

This looks like a much nastier strike for this area than Hurricane Nicholas was in 2021. Here is a 2am video update for anyone interested. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VCx6ibKtwzE

Is it just me or is Beryl slowing down?

983 mb...not bad Beryl.

Beryl looks a heck of a lot better organized than when I went to sleep at the 5am advisory.

Got some good rain on July 4th but no storms.

NHC official forecast now shows a landfall in South Texas.

Yeah it will be fascinating to see if Beryl's smaller size allows it to crank back up faster after the Yucatan.