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Floydbuster

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Everything posted by Floydbuster

  1. Floydbuster
    Some of the accounts on weather platforms are getting too caviler and cocky in their eyerolls about the GFS. We are in August during what should be a favorable MJO phase and *unlike last year* models show a ton of activity in the coming weeks. The fact that model runs from the GFS to the EURO have shown significant hurricanes after mid August is very troublesome, especially since they have been consistent. Be ready, it is on the way.
  2. Floydbuster
    I think we see a major hurricane in the Atlantic sometime later this month, and likely a threat to land masses of the Caribbean or Western Atlantic. The MJO pattern looks set to give us a good burst just in time for late August.
  3. Floydbuster
    I remember the long range GFS making a monster hurricane every run. One into Miami. One into New York City. The end result? Hurricane Dean, Cat 5 landfall in Yucatan. Not every long range GFS run is fantasy, especially when it is August and you have consistency run to run showing something developing. The track may be unknown, but something happening becomes more and more likely.
  4. Floydbuster
    I think things may turn on the next couple of weeks in the Atlantic. The long range ensembles look nasty, some showing hurricane landfalls in the Gulf or Florida east coast, and the wind shear is looking more and more favorable. This could all culminate during a positive phase of the MJO.
  5. Floydbuster
    I am a little surprised the tsunami waves are so small given the size of the quake and the shallow depth.
  6. Floydbuster
    Rest in Peace, Mr. Burns.
  7. Floydbuster
    I wonder if this season will be like 1998, 1999, 2004, 2017. Normal slow June and July and then the real activity starts in August. The last several seasons have had some oddball stuff like strong July activity, slow August activity, and prolonged Cape Verde activity into October.
  8. Floydbuster
    I have seen way worse for a July tropical storm. Looks robust considering it is weak and still sheared.
  9. Floydbuster
    I am surprised how well that line held together. It's still holding together moving into Pennsylvania. The HRRR kept showing much less of a bow for northeast Ohio.
  10. Floydbuster
    That eye looks very impressive, embedded right in the center of the bursting convection.
  11. Floydbuster
    16/8/4
  12. Floydbuster
    https://x.com/TornadoWIS/status/1923091119270662400 These kids are insufferable.
  13. Floydbuster
    This pattern has been absolute hell. Not only did last weeks pressure changes mess with migraines and sinus issues, but I am in the process of moving and trying to conserve air conditioning and the temperature has either been too hot or when it does cool down, the air is some of the most wet and soupy mix I have ever felt.
  14. Floydbuster
    I wonder if and when we will return to the types of hurricane seasons we had when I was tracking as a preteen. 1998, 1999. We would have maybe one tropical storm between June 1st and August 15th and then crazy activity between late August and late September. Maybe one late season storm. I am not used to *such* late season activity. We used to get a Mitch or a Lenny or a Michelle, but other than that, most late seasons were quiet.
  15. Floydbuster
    I am seeing this stuff on social media. Is today really a "life altering" severe weather event?
  16. Floydbuster
    The good news Sunday and likely tonight is the timing. The line weakens greatly as it moves through NE OH by 3am.
  17. Floydbuster
    Had some good thunderstorms roll through earlier. Now it is cold, cloudy wet and gray here in NE OH.
  18. Floydbuster
    That was one of the most overhyped weather events I have ever seen. You had folks on social media telling people in Columbus to cancel all daytime appointments and be prepared for another 1974 Xenia event. I literally saw "pray for Columbus" and "Central Ohio needs underground shelters ready" type stuff. People were freaking out and it was literally a line of scattered rain showers throughout most of Ohio.
  19. Floydbuster
    I would be skeptical after how the HRRR overestimated the future radar on Sunday. I have noticed the HRRR seems to be a little more aggressive than reality lately.
  20. Floydbuster
    Is that near Circleville?
  21. Floydbuster
    I'll tell ya this, if there are anything less than several F4 mile wide twisters in Alabama or Mississippi on Saturday, the general public will consider this a bust the way the weather universe has hyped this up.
  22. Floydbuster
    Try telling this to the crazies on X. They are salivating over the CSU model and acting like the severe threat will get to Erie and Buffalo. It is really annoying.
  23. Floydbuster
    Yeah I was originally thinking Illinois would get in on the action. It really deflated the last 24 hours. Still potential down south though.
  24. Floydbuster
    Getting ignored on X by folks who are mad that the "cap hasn't allowed severe weather in Ohio" after I told them there wasn't too much instability is always fun.
  25. Floydbuster
    Yeah the totals were not as crazy as they could have been given that I think the event performed better than most expected early Sunday morning. Those were some large big wet flakes.
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