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Everything posted by Floydbuster

  1. 06Z GFS has it scraping Cape Hatteras and making landfall near Martha's Vineyard on August 23rd as a powerful hurricane. 12Z is rolling out now.
  2. 1999 still a good analog per CSU. I also remember tracking in the year 2000, and we had a very busy period with Hurricane Isaac (Cat 4 out to sea), Hurricane Joyce (poised to be a major Caribbean/GOM storm but fizzled near the islands) and Hurricane Keith (Devastating Cat 4 near Belize), and those were all around September 28-October 3rd.
  3. Yeah, I remember models showing a green blotch of about 1003 mb over the Bahamas for what eventually became a 185 mph hurricane named Dorian.
  4. I think we probably get Danielle sometime August 10-15th and my guess is it's similar to Hurricane Earl 2016 or Hurricane Franklin 2017, a Cat 1 minimal cane into the Yucatan/Mexico. Possible risk to northwest Gulf Coast. By the end of August, the switch flips and I think we start to see a fast burst of storms. One or two of them will be useless name wasters.
  5. I'll stick to my prediction of a major hurricane on August 28th. The previous poster said how unlikely it is, but usually by August 28th if we don't have a major hurricane, we have one about to form or in the process of strengthening. I also think the pattern favors more of an active October than we saw in 2004 or 2017, for example. I'm getting 1999 vibes with this season.
  6. So much premature naysaying here. I still think that switch will flip and once it does, the Atlantic will light up. In fact, I bet we have a major hurricane in the Atlantic basin one month from today.
  7. The slower motion *could* allow more time over water, but still only a moderate chance per the NHC.
  8. I think a Cat 2 is very possible down there. The waters are boiling and the models seem to show a good upper level environment. As long as it doesn't race too fast or get easterly shear.
  9. Interesting that some models are showing a system forming near Texas, maybe a weak tropical storm. If that occurs, that could affect the ridging above 94L by the time the system would be in the Central or Western Caribbean. Another thing to monitor.
  10. I remember Claudette in July 2003. A long tracked hurricane that never did much until the end. It slammed into Port O'Connor, TX as a 90 mph nastycane.
  11. Dark and rainy here in Stow. No school closings yet.
  12. It's a whiteout right now in Stow, OH. Some of the heaviest snow I've seen this year, honestly! We're caught in a small snow band on radar.
  13. Lots of schools closed today. Lucky kids.
  14. So when are the long-range models showing another blast for NEOH?
  15. My sister measured about 9-10" in Cuyahoga Falls.
  16. This is gonna be one heck of a storm if this future radar holds true.
  17. Careful. Summit County Sheriff just issued a snow emergency.
  18. All schools starting to shutdown again for tomorrow.
  19. These videos don't do it justice, but we have heavy sideways-blowing nasty snow in Stow.
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