Floydbuster

Thanks for the stats. Yeah, the last decade or so has really changed my views when it comes to Atlantic Hurricane Seasons. Several of my own personal tropes have been thrown to the wayside. 1. A high end Cat 4 hurricane can only strike Florida, and likely most places anywhere in the United States before late September. You wont see high end Category 4 storms striking areas of the Bahamas or around the east coast of Florida after late September. Joaquin 2015, Matthew 2016, and Michael 2018 threw that away. 2. All major hurricanes tend to weaken at landfall on the north Gulf Coast. Michael 2018, Laura 2020, Ida 2021 and Helene 2024 threw that one away. 3. A Category 5 landfall on the North Gulf Coast is highly unlikely, and Camille 1969 was likely overestimated in strength. See: Hurricane Michael 919 mb. 4. A strengthening Category 5 hurricane into landfall on the North Gulf Coast in MID-OCTOBER is not possible. Again, see: Michael 2018. 5. September 10th is the peak of the season. Honestly, it should be October 1st at this point. 6. The Big Bend rarely gets hurricanes. B.S. I have seen more maps of the Big Bend the last ten years than I can count.

Well that was yet another strike for the Panhandle/Big Bend/West Coast of Florida. I feel like the last decade has been really intense for that area. Hermine 2016 Irma 2017 Michael 2018 Sally 2020 Ian 2022 Idalia 2023 Debby 2024 Helene 2024 Milton 2024 Isaias 2026 Ten hurricanes in ten years all on from Pensacola down to Naples.

Damn just noticed that in the radar frames as you said it. Yeah, that will expand the wind field for sure.

Radar has degraded so much in just the last hour. Thank goodness.

Wow, what a complete turnaround overnight in the last 12 hours. Isaias was looking very ill organized about 10 hrs ago, but I am impressed this morning. Unfortunately, this obviously increases the chances for more severe impacts at the coastline. That radar from Mobile shows quite a nasty eyewall. Here is hoping it weakens in the next 12 hrs, but now the NHC sounds less sure that this wont make landfall as a major hurricane.

I am not impressed with the satellite signature.

I was hoping to make it with zero hurricanes. I should have known we would get one with a dumb "I" storm.

Rest in Peace.

Wow I am surprised how far east the 5am track shifted. Landfall 12 hrs ago was forecast near Pascagoula, Mississippi, now all the way to Gulf Shores, Alabama and from the sounds of the NHC discussion, they are likely thinking even further east.

Even if it weakens, the intensity offshore could have huge implications on potential storm surge.

Edouard really tried at the very end. Thank goodness it didn't have another 12-18 hrs over water.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2i4xnjcMme0

This weather sucks. Cold and drizzly and overcast in the middle of May. Even for Ohio it seems a little excessive.

On and off thunder and rain in Northern Summit County, OH. Nothing too extreme yet. Cooling down for sure, though.

Here in Summit County, it did not seem as bad as nearly all the surrounding areas. I actually did not lose power, surprisingly. Anyone know what the record highest winds are in the Cleveland area? I know they hit 85 mph gust at Burke Lakefront, I wonder what the highest ever recorded was.

Yeah in Summit we got hit hard. I have had enough of winter. Usually we get snow and cold like this twice a winter here in NE Ohio, and this year it has been almost every week.

The last few runs of the GFS show a hurricane threat to Western Florida mid November.

The GFS continues to show a hurricane near Central America in the next 300 hrs. Likely more 992 mb than 892 mb though...

Thankfully Melissa had tighter-wound bands that I expected, so the massive rain amounts were more limited than I expected.

One or two of the GFS ensembles had a Cat 1 hurricane into SW Florida around November 11th.