Floydbuster

Well other than the early Monday morning HRRR and NAM nightmares showing a possible big outbreak *perhaps* getting to Central Ohio, there was always the likelihood that it would be worse down near the Ohio River and Kentucky. When the moderate risk was held over that area, there was a massive social media twitter meltdown among the amateur storm chaser nerds. They were attacking some forecaster named Broyles or something and going nuts. Then you had the long discussions and a tardy issuance of the moderate risk Mon afternoon smack dab over Central Ohio, way too far north without more model run indicators. By Monday evening, it was obvious that should be moved southwest, which it eventually was. I know this seems unlikely, but is there a chance that the moderate risk was issued out of pressure from the social media freakout and the overperformance of the March Western Ohio tornado event?

Northern Ohio looking much lower risk.

A Kentucky event?

Well atleast you're a bit closer to the action. Imagine having people freakout who live closer to Erie than Cincinnati.

Still wind chill at 49° with rain here in NE Ohio.

I'm trying to sift through wishcasters and forecasters on Twitter. Forecasters seem to think the moisture is lacking and the recovery time isn't as long as it could have been. Wishcasters seem to think it's going to be the 1974 Super Outbreak. Unfortunately, they're scaring the heck out of people. Literally a PHD tries to say it could be sporadically nasty, and then we get people talking about 1974.

We'll see how the recovery goes out west. Bloomington, Cincinnati, Louisville, Frankfurt seem most in the line of fire.

Southward adjustments. Better for northern and northeast Ohio.

Thankfully the moderate was shifted south slightly more away from Northeast OH where I live. In fact, I'm on the edge of marginal, slight and enhanced now. The local NWS in Akron actually removed the words "severe" from our forecast and replaced with "showers and thunderstorms". Probably not expecting the warm front to drape as far north as some thought 24 hrs ago. Here's hoping that continues and isn't as bad for those higher risk areas down south.

It doesn't help that there is so much hyperbole (and I never use that word) on social media. I have had a few text messages from Clevelanders thinking F5 twisters are going to level Cleveland, Akron and Youngstown tomorrow. I had to explain to them that the threat was almost all south of the area, and that there was still uncertainty. Today's (Monday) hype was quite possibly the most I've ever seen for a severe weather event, at least for Ohio.

Kentucky/Tennessee? Maybe?

Twitter is discussing how models are trending down for Central OH, and really for the whole event trending less intense.

Twitter world seems to be saying that models are adjusting to a slower moving system with most energy closer to the IN/OH/KY three-corners region. Expect adjustments.

That sucks, man. Sorry to hear that. Hopefully any bad ones stay south of you. You'll be close to the line. Anything will probably be south of 71, but hopefully it stays further south than that and you avoid nasty stuff.

My twitter feed is filled with Southern OH chasers crying that the SPC didn't move it further north. I think the rain ahead will limit instability, especially further north. Perhaps there's a slight chance some stronger storms make it as far north as Columbus and Zanesville, but I think the line will arch east-southeast and that's why the SPC is more focused on Kentucky.

Looks like some slight snow potential on Wednesday, but things *could* be clear my Monday April 8th for the eclipse.

I mean "springtime" figuratively speaking. Most people consider "springtime" pretty much Valentine's Day to Memorial Day. March has flown by.

I agree, and when I see people who want tornadoes in Chicago hyping what would likely be a severe event for Arkansas and Tennessee, it's cringey.

I'm a hurricane guy so I'm not seasoned in severe weather and I don't storm chase but these people are drooling and begging for a severe event. Spring is flying by and they're going bonkers. It's actually quite annoying.

My whole Twitter feed is insane. So many fan-created "risk" maps that show their "dream" severe scenarios. It's hard for me to differentiate between actual SPC maps and teenage kids with their wishcasting. Nevertheless, it is definitely something to watch especially for the south and mid-Atlantic.

Thank God your family is alright. Here's hoping we luck out and avoid severe weather as much as possible the next few months.

While I agree with the sentiment, this event (from my point of you) didn't look that impressive until late afternoon. I'm still surprised by how powerful some of these twisters were in western Ohio.

I have to say, I did *not* expect Western Ohio to take such a tornadic strike. I didn't think it was quite warm enough for the clash with the front to produce these kinds of twisters that they experienced in Indiana and Western Ohio today.