Floydbuster
-
Posts
2,836 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Floydbuster
-
Weakening hurricanes have winds that just ain't bursting down the surface the way strengthening hurricanes are.
-
I'm not convinced Idalia will get that much stronger. The eye seems so small that it almost looks ready to peak, IMO.
-
SUMMARY OF 400 AM EDT...0800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.9N 84.1W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM WSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...27 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES Up to 125 mph. Not quite a Cat 4 yet.
-
Look at that core!
-
11:30pm Video Update on Idalia https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=McX8BTvxbn4
-
Chasers in Florida tonight be like:
-
Reminds me a bit of Dennis in 2005. Very tight core. With the hurricane force winds extending out only 25 miles, you miss them and it could be night and day.
-
New Video Update for those interested https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tXfNa-LHOt4
-
Probably a little less. I'm thinking 8-10am Wednesday.
-
-
Visually it reminds me so much of Irene in October 1999. I remember the original forecasts and the models kept showing west and eventually, Irene just dragged more and more east. I think that's why my visual take on Idalia is giving me a memory back to tracks similar to Irene 1999, where the storm sort of drags eastward.
-
Agree. This time it might really go west, but looking on satellite it is difficult to envision. But of course, I can read the model agreement, and it's there.
-
I usually start it with Iris in 2001.
-
I'm still reeling from the GFS and ensembles bust from last year taking Ian to the panhandle instead of Sanibel/Captiva. Whether it's Hurricane Irene 1999, Hurricane Charley 2004, Hurricane Ian 2022, they always seem to move eastward as they are influenced by the trough in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.
-
I have trouble seeing how Idalia would get past that line I drew on the map, especially as the upper level feature in the Eastern Gulf moves along.
-
Watch how fast the media loses interest if Idalia only strikes rural Florida and destroys a Doug's Dinner Bucket and Bait.
-
As mentioned yesterday, like Isidore 2002, Idalia is likely to have lower-than-normal pressure. Even if Idalia peaks at 120 mph, I'd expect a pressure in the 930s-940mb range.
-
There's the end result of the high-latitude SST anomalies we've been talking about all year coming to fruition.
-
My guess is 150 mph-155 mph based on the data. What a gorgeous hurricane!!
-
In yesterday's video, I noted how it looked similar to Hurricane Andrew as Andrew neared the Bahamas. It exploded in a very similar fashion, but thankfully, this one has a completely different setup and future track.
-
990 mb on the new advisory. This thing will definitely trend towards a lower than normal pressure. Reminds me a bit of Hurricane Isidore in 2002 (which also did a loop near the Yucatan Peninsula). Isidore started as a tropical storm with a lower pressure similar to Idalia, and ended up being down to 934 mb despite only having winds of 125 mph.
-
I still think this is going much further east in the end. Maybe I'm wrong but it is unusual to have many go between Apalachicola and Tampa Bay.
-
Evening video on Idalia https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=adUFWl88kyM
-
For those of us old enough to remember Isidore 2002, I don't say anything until the southern drift near the Yucatan Peninsula stops.
-
Evening video update on TD-10 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e9xzL_UNJHQ
