Floydbuster

NHC is thinking this makes a Category 4 Florida landfall.

Yeah the more I see that pressure and the completion of the ERC, I think it's actually possible we could still see more intensification. Good grief. If those winds really are expanding, then Marco Island and Goodland aren't far from hurricane force.

I'm shocked how fast and beautifully Hurricane Ian seems to have completed it's eyewall replacement cycle.

The 1919 Hurricane is counted as a 927 mb - 150 mph U.S. Landfall in the Dry Tortugas, so I do believe a landfall would count despite the lack of habitation.

Is it possible that Ian makes a first landfall on the Dry Tortugas?

I think once Ian catches up with his satellite signature, it'll be a full blown Category 4.

Yeah this looks set to go.

I read a long time ago that it could be a sign of weakening, but then I've seen multiple hurricanes like Michael and Ida have increased lightning right before they rapidly deepen.

What a beaut.

Yeah sometimes it hurts (Gustav 2008) but other times it makes no difference (Lili 2002, Charley 2004). It seems that Ian has continued to get better organized. In fact, the symmetry looks better than it did 6-8 hours ago.

118 WTNT64 KNHC 270631 TCUAT4 Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 230 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022 ...IAN BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER WESTERN CUBA SOON... Earlier aircraft and more recent satellite data indicate that Ian has continued to strengthen. The maximum winds are now estimated to be 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. SUMMARY OF 230 AM EDT...0630 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.9N 83.6W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF THE CITY OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM E OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES $$ Forecaster Latto/Brown

Is it just my eyes or has Ian slowed way below 13 mph?

The Cuban radar looks almost due north at the end.

Here's a midnight video update for my fellow night owls. Ian is strengthening faster than the videos can be uploaded! Crazy!

I wonder if Ian is going to intensify once it moves northeastward with the trough, because right now it looks like it's about to slam into shear.

962-964 mb per recon.

I'd rather it become a Cat 4 now and weaken rather than take two days and peak right before landfall. That's what happened with Hurricane Michael. He screwed around so much taking his sweet old time being sheared that by the time he intensified, it was too late to weaken before landfall.

Looks extremely similar to Hurricane Lili in 2002 as she crossed over Cuba. Almost 20 years ago to the day.

New Video Update on Ian https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s21N7LmYW6s

This is a good post. One big factor too is that Florida has some of the best building codes around. You literally had Hurricane Irma's Category 3 eyewall move over downtown Naples, the Naples Airport recorded a wind gust to 142 mph, and then the backside was dry and weak. People literally were taking their dogs to poop like a thunderstorm had moved in a few minutes after the eyewall of this "monster" storm struck. Those building codes are amazing. To be fair though, Irma's strange angle approach to the coast caused a reverse surge along much of the west coast. Charley's small size limited his surge along the coast. We have yet to see a major hurricane dragging up the western side of the peninsula yet. I'm curious how the surge would be.

Wow if that 06z Euro verified, the storm surge would just push straight up Tampa Bay.

Hole punch coming soon.

It's a double edged sword. If it slows, the winds could weaken but the wind field expands and the flooding rains and surge are horrendous. If it moves fast, it could bring major hurricane winds into the peninsula.