Floydbuster

Good morning Beryl.

I thought about Hurricane Danny in 2015, but remember...Danny was in August during a very strong El Nino period and had colder than average sea surface temperatures and very high wind shear, likely even higher than what Beryl *might* encounter down the road. Beryl is in abnormally favorable conditions during what is expected to be an extremely active and favorable hurricane season, where CSU is forecasting that we will exhaust the name list. To me, that makes Beryl a much greater threat to the Caribbean than Danny ever was.

By the way, how does everyone say BERYL? I always pronounce this name as BURL, like Milton Berle. This was confirmed by Forecaster Stacy Stewart when the name was used in 2006.

HWRF shows a Category 3 strike on St. Vincent next Tuesday.

2005 feels like yesterday. Now I DO feel old.

Don't forget Dennis, which formed on July 4th in the Lesser Antilles out of a well-organized MDR disturbance and reached Category 4 intensity on July 8th. It remains the earliest Major on record in the Caribbean, even if just barely eclipsing Emily's formation on July 10th, though Emily holds the record for earliest Category 5. I still do not understand why Emily wasn't retired by the WMO. Yeah, we were there together tracking Emily. Hurricane Emily was a much more memorable storm than it gets credit for. The evacuations were tremendous and no doubt saved many lives in Mexico.

Forget about Elsa 2021...these ensembles are much stronger than Elsa ever was.

I need to stop fretting over the damn future radar so much. Look at today's result.... FUTURE RADAR ACTUAL RADAR

I am a bit concerned at the strong intensities of the ensemble models as the system banks westward whether towards the SE U.S. or the Gulf of Mexico.

I am only 35 but my old school millennial self had no idea what mog meant. I thought maybe Major - something - something, like a weather acronym. My teenage nephew taught me what the word rizz means though, so at least there is that. Looking at that image below, that is a remarkably favorable looking Atlantic for June 25th.

I am sorry what is mog?

Could this be the July major hurricane we surmised this spring was possible due to the warm sea surface temperatures?

Beautiful disintegration of the MCS right as it left Michigan, exactly as the HRRR had predicted. Don't be discouraged, be happy we did not get the power outages.

Well it looks like I got my wish for pool and carnival fair weather, with an addition twenty degrees on top of that! Wow!

Here's hoping after all the devastation the midwest has seen, and we here in Ohio have been slammed quite a bit.

I want to hit the pool in the next week but it looks like sunny with highs only in the 60s. Pretty cool compared to what it's been.

Yeah for sure the next three-five hours for west-central Ohio are much more intense. No doubt.

Looks like the action should weaken by central and eastern Ohio by 2-3am, thankfully. The most high quality stuff should be impacting Indiana currently and the next couple hours.

Looks like a nasty night out there, but perhaps not as insane as some earlier forecasts, thankfully. (I'm just guessing that because my social media feed is going insane with cope threads when earlier it was chasers sayings things like "memories of Joplin 2011".

The good news for those of us in Northeast Ohio is that the models seem to show a dramatic decrease in storm intensity, coverage and even lightning by the time it makes it all the way here in the east. Nevertheless, it sure seems like Indiana and potentially parts of Western Ohio could get a smack before night-time cooldown decreases the storm intensity.

https://twitter.com/fmnews__/status/1783980266643431752/photo/1 Is that debarking on the trees? Good lord.

The tornadoes that Ohio has seen this year don't even begin to compare with the hype I've seen for severe events the last few months. The way social media acts is insane.