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Floydbuster

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Everything posted by Floydbuster

  1. That's just not true at all though. In 1999, we didn't get Hurricane Floyd or Hurricane Irene or Hurricane Lenny until Sept 13th. In 2000, it was October 1st when we had three developing hurricanes (Isaac, Joyce and Keith). Those are two of todays analog years. La Nina years have more active September and Octobers.
  2. Yeah in that run, it misses the weakness and ends up trapped with rebuilding heights above.
  3. The NHC doesn't have a lemon because the wave that is likely to form isn't necessarily the one leaving Africa now, it's probably the one following behind. Nevertheless, the consistency of the long-range ensembles show the lid peeling off.
  4. 12Z GFS showing a powerful hurricane striking North Gulf Coast around August 28th.
  5. I remember in 2000, the only coverage of Cat 4 Hurricane Keith offshore Belize was a blurb on CNN and the tropical updates on the Weather Channel. Nowadays, you have CNN articles about 384 hour GFS models. Katrina changed everything. Pre-Katrina, you would have never seen a news article about an obscure long-range weather model.
  6. The O0Z GFS showed three hurricanes off Africa, lined up like a train. Some of the ridging setup looks potentially dangerous for the SE US coast in some of the long-range runs. Take with a grain of salt, but still.
  7. I was gonna say, I see Danielle, Earl and Fiona by August 28th per the 12Z GFS.
  8. Nah it's not gonna be a dud season. Alot of these youngsters have been spoiled by 20 named storm swirls by July 15th. I'm an old timer. (compared to them) I remember tracking the 2nd named storms "Bonnie" and "Bret" in '98 and '99 and they were still weeks away from where we are now. Plus, just 24 hrs ago, the GFS was showing a hurricane scraping the East Coast and then another hurricane headed for the Lesser Antilles. Yeah it dropped it, but still a sign of things to come.
  9. This is true, and I have often wondered "when will that happen again" when we don't see anything until August. Last time it happened in a memorable year was 2004.
  10. 06Z GFS has it scraping Cape Hatteras and making landfall near Martha's Vineyard on August 23rd as a powerful hurricane. 12Z is rolling out now.
  11. 1999 still a good analog per CSU. I also remember tracking in the year 2000, and we had a very busy period with Hurricane Isaac (Cat 4 out to sea), Hurricane Joyce (poised to be a major Caribbean/GOM storm but fizzled near the islands) and Hurricane Keith (Devastating Cat 4 near Belize), and those were all around September 28-October 3rd.
  12. Yeah, I remember models showing a green blotch of about 1003 mb over the Bahamas for what eventually became a 185 mph hurricane named Dorian.
  13. I think we probably get Danielle sometime August 10-15th and my guess is it's similar to Hurricane Earl 2016 or Hurricane Franklin 2017, a Cat 1 minimal cane into the Yucatan/Mexico. Possible risk to northwest Gulf Coast. By the end of August, the switch flips and I think we start to see a fast burst of storms. One or two of them will be useless name wasters.
  14. I'll stick to my prediction of a major hurricane on August 28th. The previous poster said how unlikely it is, but usually by August 28th if we don't have a major hurricane, we have one about to form or in the process of strengthening. I also think the pattern favors more of an active October than we saw in 2004 or 2017, for example. I'm getting 1999 vibes with this season.
  15. So much premature naysaying here. I still think that switch will flip and once it does, the Atlantic will light up. In fact, I bet we have a major hurricane in the Atlantic basin one month from today.
  16. The slower motion *could* allow more time over water, but still only a moderate chance per the NHC.
  17. I think a Cat 2 is very possible down there. The waters are boiling and the models seem to show a good upper level environment. As long as it doesn't race too fast or get easterly shear.
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