Floydbuster

Here's a late night Ian video for the night owls like myself https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Oi2_jjOjRI

That CDO should really crank overnight.

Anyone have stats on the last direct hurricane impacts to Tampa? I know 1921 was the last direct major strike, but what was the last Cat 1 or 2?

I'm leaning towards a lower peak intensity but a stronger landfall.

As I stated before I went to sleep in the wee hours of the morning, I still favor the EURO solution only because it keeps Ian less organized in the short term, which seems likely because of Ian's current disorganization. The models further west like the GFS and similar members, all have Ian basically sub 980-mb by late tonight or the wee hours of tomorrow. That just doesn't seem realistic to me given the current state of organization.

The EURO shows this becoming a major hurricane, but not right away. 24 hrs from now it's still getting it's act together. That seems much more likely given how disorganized it is right now. The GFS has this thing taking off immediately and being on it's way to Category 2 status 24 hrs from now. I'm skeptical of that. Thus, I'm leaning towards the EURO model, atleast short term.

I hate to say it, but the EURO looks more accurate as far as Ian's initial organization. It keeps it as a 1000 mb storm over the next 24 hrs, and then strengthens rapidly once in the Gulf. Right now that seems more realistic given it's current state.

Watching the satellite, I wouldn't be surprised if we see a reformation somewhere closer to the deep convection more around 15.5N/78.3W.

I recall with Charley the NHC had the EXACT final Florida landfall track nailed on an early forecast days before: But then the computer models kept insisting it would move further west or ride up the coastline. So they shifted the track west. The models were also insisting on fast weakening right before landfall: MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH SEEMS QUITE PROBABLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY. CHARLEY COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE BETWEEN THE 12 AND 24 HOURS TIME PERIODS...AND THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOLER COASTAL WATERS AROUND THE TAMPA BAY AREA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY MODELS. Then of course, Charley moved further east and was much stronger. Just food for thought.

I remember the models showing Ivan weakening in the Gulf and we waited and waited and waited. It came ashore with 120 mph winds.

Some of these models show 40 mb of weakening in six hours prior to landfall. That would be insane.

Wow I'm stunned that the NHC is forecasting a drop from a Category 4 all the way to a Category 1 before landfall. Even Frances maintained Category 2.

Am I the only one who doesn't think it's that disorganized? It's not expected to be a hurricane for 36-48 hours. With those waters, low shear and that impressive satellite presentation (even if the circulation is still getting better organized) it can become a hurricane in the blink of an eye. I think it looks great compared to the tiny blob it was 12 hrs ago.

Do you know the lowest record pressure in Nova Scotia?

I also show in the video the "return period" for a major hurricane in the Ft. Myers/Charlotte Harbor area is 18 years. It's been 18 years since Charley.

Quite a nasty hurricane for Western Florida on this run.

Western Florida has been very lucky with storm surge. Hurricane Charley 2004 was a 150 mph Cat 4 and the small size limited the storm surge. Hurricane Irma would've had a tremendous surge but hitting Cuba, then the Keys as well as the odd angle it approached the coastline gave many areas a reverse surge.

I think the further east this goes, the stronger. If it mills in the Gulf too long interacting with the trough, it'll weaken more prior to landfall. It's also possible further east movement with the trough could allow it to strengthen similar to Charley or Wilma on their approach to Florida.

Hurricane Isidore in 2002 had similar scenarios. We didn't know whether the trough was gonna pick up Isidore and pull it to the Florida panhandle, or if Isidore would miss the trough and end up milling around in the Gulf of Mexico for days becoming a monster until another trough picked it up and pulled it into Louisiana.Eventually, the second scenario occurred, but the high pressure that built in during the time Isidore had weak steering currents wound up bumping the hurricane into the Yucatan Peninsula, weakening it from a 934 mb monster to a large pin-wheel tropical storm. The storm never rebuilt it's inner core and by the time it made landfall in Southeast Louisiana, it was just shy of becoming a hurricane.