Floydbuster

People are hyping this one up big time. Nearly every school in Northeast Ohio is closed for Friday. Color me skeptical. I think this snowfall is being vastly overestimated.

Thanks for the link. Yeah, stronger winds certainly hit closer to the lakeshore. The two strongest gusts here near Akron were 51 and 54 mph both gusts within less than twenty minutes of each other around 4:30-5am Saturday morning. I guess what made it a little better (atleast down here) was that it wasn't a constant roar with gust after gust after gust.

Really? Wow! I'm down in Southern Summit County and it wasn't near that bad.

Welp, that was interesting. Here in NE Ohio, everyone I know lost power bad during the straight-line wind thunderstorm that blew through in late August of last year. The forecasts showed winds gusting 50-60 mph, and we have been on edge since Thursday. Every single person I talk to says they're "done with snow and winter", and I personally detest winter weather, so we were happy that we had no snow accumulation. I should note, we had a quick 1-2 inches in an hour around 4pm Friday night before turning to rain and melting away. Thankfully, it's past us, so now we just get some arctic air. Overall, the local mets hype about winds didn't get *quite* as bad as we had been fearing. For those more seasoned in winter weather than myself, was the storm weaker than expected? Did the winds underperform in NE Ohio or was it what you guys expected?

Atleast we will get the arctic temperature drop....before it warms up again and becomes a rainy four months.

I noticed my local NWS forecasts in the short-term are being slowly lowered. Snow totals dropped from an inch or two down to less than a half inch. Wind gusts dropped from up to 50 mph to up to 35 mph. We're actually in a bit of a dry slot now from heavy rain. I'm skeptical of any huge event, especially in the notorious mild El Nino winters.

I hope this busts. I'm not in a snow mood, and I certainly don't want to lose power. Here's hoping it stays away from Ohio and stays weak!

They didn't have a plane there at the time of landfall. The eye started to lose it's luster right at landfall, but based on the observed damage, my guess is that this came ashore as a Category 5. In fact, I'm guessing the peak intensity offshore was higher than the operational 165 mph. It probably was about 175 mph offshore, and came ashore in the 160-165 mph range. A devastating Category 5 strike on Mexico.

I think the smaller the radius of maximum sustained winds, the most concentrated the wind gusts are. Not to mention the lower the pressure, you wind up with a steep pressure fall the smaller the eye is.

Wow!

I agree! I wouldn't be surprised if Tammy makes a run at Category 3 strength.

Hurricane Otis is the strongest hurricane to strike the Pacific coastline of Mexico on record, and the only one to make landfall at Category 5 intensity.

000 WTPZ63 KNHC 250626 TCUEP3 Hurricane Otis Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023 125 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023 ...CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE OTIS MAKES LANDFALL NEAR ACAPULCO MEXICO... Satellite imagery indicates that Otis has made landfall near Acapulco, Mexico around 125 AM CDT (0625 UTC). The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 165 mph (270 km/h), and the minimum central pressure is estimated at 923 mb (27.26 inches). Otis is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. SUMMARY OF 125 AM CDT...0625 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8 99.9W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brown/Kelly

BULLETIN Hurricane Otis Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023 100 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023 ...EYE OF CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE OTIS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR ACAPULCO MEXICO... ...CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE LIKELY WHERE THE CORE MOVES ONSHORE... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 99.8W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES

Everyone missed this. No model support for this, no recon scheduled for landfalls, no reliable radar sites, no storm chasers. This is 2023, not 1923. I think this hurricane will remind all of us meteorological aficionados to remain humble.

Good grief!

Sadly, he was caught too off guard and won't be chasing Otis. Damn shame, too. I can't imagine, but like I told him on Twitter, it's Mother Nature's way of keeping him humble.

000 WTPZ63 KNHC 250400 TCUEP3 Hurricane Otis Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023 1100 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE OTIS STILL STRENGTHENING AS IT NEARS THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... Recent satellite data indicate that Otis continues to strengthen. The maximum sustained winds are now estimated to be near 165 mph (270 km/h) with higher gusts. Otis is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Otis is forecast to remain a category 5 hurricane through landfall overnight. SUMMARY OF 1100 PM CDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3 99.7W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES

Josh Morgerman said that he was caught off guard and wouldn't be able to chase Otis. But he's been silent for over 8 hrs on Twitter...and I wonder if he did a quickie and is headed down there. It's possible, he's one of the best.

I just find it hard to believe that a major metropolitan city of one million people wouldn't have a radar site in 2023.

I thought Acapulco had a radar site, but I've been searching too and unable to find it.

Ditto on the Western Caribbean. The ensembles of the EURO and GEFS continue to show low pressure around the first week of November.

Holy cow look at that symmetry!