Floydbuster

Visually it reminds me so much of Irene in October 1999. I remember the original forecasts and the models kept showing west and eventually, Irene just dragged more and more east. I think that's why my visual take on Idalia is giving me a memory back to tracks similar to Irene 1999, where the storm sort of drags eastward.

Agree. This time it might really go west, but looking on satellite it is difficult to envision. But of course, I can read the model agreement, and it's there.

I usually start it with Iris in 2001.

I'm still reeling from the GFS and ensembles bust from last year taking Ian to the panhandle instead of Sanibel/Captiva. Whether it's Hurricane Irene 1999, Hurricane Charley 2004, Hurricane Ian 2022, they always seem to move eastward as they are influenced by the trough in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.

I have trouble seeing how Idalia would get past that line I drew on the map, especially as the upper level feature in the Eastern Gulf moves along.

Watch how fast the media loses interest if Idalia only strikes rural Florida and destroys a Doug's Dinner Bucket and Bait.

As mentioned yesterday, like Isidore 2002, Idalia is likely to have lower-than-normal pressure. Even if Idalia peaks at 120 mph, I'd expect a pressure in the 930s-940mb range.

There's the end result of the high-latitude SST anomalies we've been talking about all year coming to fruition.

My guess is 150 mph-155 mph based on the data. What a gorgeous hurricane!!

In yesterday's video, I noted how it looked similar to Hurricane Andrew as Andrew neared the Bahamas. It exploded in a very similar fashion, but thankfully, this one has a completely different setup and future track.

990 mb on the new advisory. This thing will definitely trend towards a lower than normal pressure. Reminds me a bit of Hurricane Isidore in 2002 (which also did a loop near the Yucatan Peninsula). Isidore started as a tropical storm with a lower pressure similar to Idalia, and ended up being down to 934 mb despite only having winds of 125 mph.

I still think this is going much further east in the end. Maybe I'm wrong but it is unusual to have many go between Apalachicola and Tampa Bay.

Evening video on Idalia https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=adUFWl88kyM

For those of us old enough to remember Isidore 2002, I don't say anything until the southern drift near the Yucatan Peninsula stops.

Evening video update on TD-10 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e9xzL_UNJHQ

Wow 120 mph Category 3 hurricane is quite the impressive storm. We'll see if Franklin can make a go at it.

Ugh. Should've never named Gert LOL

Please name the low pressure in the Atlantic so we don't have another stupid "I" name storm for the U.S. landfall!

That was a bad one. Trees and powerlines down all over Northeast Ohio. I was without power for 12 hours.

After all the flooding and nasty rain in Northeast Ohio last night, I hope this one is weak and fast.

A friends basement is totally flooded near Richfield, OH. I-90 is submerged. This is bad!

Why such a strange track and slow motion of these storms? Usually it's west to east at 60 mph. This is a strange night.

Very weird radar. What's this south-southwest movement crap? I can't remember seeing something like this, not even lake effect snow. When is it gonna push out?

I was envisioning 91L becoming a Category 1 Hurricane "Gert" into South Texas/Northern Mexico. I guess now it'd be Harold. I swear, the wave off Africa better be a fish because I do not want another infamous "I" storm, and the long-range models show another wave leaving Africa after the current one and being more a potential threat to landmasses west. If TD-6 hadn't become Gert, then the Gulf would have likely been Gert, the wave off Africa currently could have become Harold, setting up the next wave with more of a threat potential to be "Idalia". With TD-6 becoming Gert, this now wouldn't happen. It would likely be "Jose".