Floydbuster

I think the only future U.S. Category 5 landfall that isn't a posthumous upgrade would have to be something long-tracked and constant Category 5 (like if Irma had never gone to Cuba and had struck the Keys as a consistent Category 5) or if the pressure wound up so low (something like 912 mb) with corresponding winds to where it would be painfully obvious the storm was landfalling as a Cat 5.

I guess the word on the street among the people I know who don't track hurricanes that they "heard" the NHC wouldn't call Hurricane Ian a Category 5 for "insurance purposes". I actually don't think Ian ever achieved Category 5, despite what many have stated on twitter. Michael was a different story, getting to 919 mb on the North Gulf Coast in mid-October, blowing trains off their tracks, and insane sustained winds. Ian was a high-end Cat 4 no doubt, but the NHC would have upgraded had the information indicated a Cat 5. It didn't.

In recent years, the worst damage definitely seems to come from the storm surge more than the wind. Although location matters, too. I don't know how the building codes would fare in areas of Texas or the Carolinas from a 150 mph storm compared to Florida.

Link?

Looks like DeSoto City is next up, then what is left of the eye will head generally towards Melbourne.

Crazy lightning in eyewall.

136 kt FL, 121 kt unflagged SFMR in the Southeast quad. Holy smokes.

000 WTNT64 KNHC 281659 TCUAT4 Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 100 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 ...1 PM EDT IAN POSITION UPDATE... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA... A River, Estuary, and Coastal Network station at Redfish Pass, Florida, recently reported sustained winds of 75 mph (121 km/h) and a wind gust of 100 mph (161 km/h), while a Weatherflow station near Sanibel Island, Florida, recently reported sustained winds of 77 mph (124 km/h) and a wind gust of 107 mph (172 km/h). The Earth Networks Station at the Naples Grande Beach Resort recently reported a wind gust of 112 mph (180 km/h.) The Redfish Pass station has also reported a pressure of 969 mb (28.61 inches). SUMMARY OF 100 PM EDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.4N 82.4W ABOUT 35 MI...80 KM WSW OF FT MYERS FLORIDA ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES $$ Forecaster Beven

Sanibel Island just had a gust to 100 mph, webcam showing either wind obliteration or storm surge covering the island.

Teens playing in the surf on the Fort Myers webcam another reason the voting age should be changed to 35. But I digress.

000 WTNT64 KNHC 281358 TCUAT4 Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1000 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 ...10 AM EDT IAN POSITION UPDATE... ...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS NEARING THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA... Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that hurricane-force winds are approaching the coast of Florida near Sanibel Island. The Southwest Regional Airport in Fort Myers recently reported a wind gust of 62 mph (100 km/h). SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.2N 82.7W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF NAPLES FLORIDA ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SW OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES $$ Forecaster Beven

9am video for anyone interested. I certainly didn't expect this type of storm. One for the ages for SW Florida no doubt. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KdnFILp2Ur0

Channeling Charley 2004...but much larger.

CDO keeps rebounding rounder

NHC is thinking this makes a Category 4 Florida landfall.

Yeah the more I see that pressure and the completion of the ERC, I think it's actually possible we could still see more intensification. Good grief. If those winds really are expanding, then Marco Island and Goodland aren't far from hurricane force.

I'm shocked how fast and beautifully Hurricane Ian seems to have completed it's eyewall replacement cycle.

The 1919 Hurricane is counted as a 927 mb - 150 mph U.S. Landfall in the Dry Tortugas, so I do believe a landfall would count despite the lack of habitation.

Is it possible that Ian makes a first landfall on the Dry Tortugas?

I think once Ian catches up with his satellite signature, it'll be a full blown Category 4.

Yeah this looks set to go.

I read a long time ago that it could be a sign of weakening, but then I've seen multiple hurricanes like Michael and Ida have increased lightning right before they rapidly deepen.

What a beaut.