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Floydbuster

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Everything posted by Floydbuster

  1. Floydbuster
    Without that SW shear, this thing could be a hurricane fast. I'm still not buying the poleward movement in 96 hrs, especially not as abrupt as some of the guidance shows. Despite rounding the periphery of a ridge, a sheared tropical storm will always tend to move more west.
  2. Floydbuster
  3. Floydbuster
    Well regardless of development, the pattern favors impacts to land. I'd be surprised if this turns east of the Bahamas.
  4. Floydbuster
    Ugh I hate systems like this. Center reformations and not knowing if they'll end up in the Bahamas or the Gulf. Atleast it is something to watch.
  5. Floydbuster
    Thanks for the link. Yeah, things seem to light up on September 20-30th. Wouldn't it be ironic if the switch happened exactly one month after predicted?
  6. Floydbuster
    I never could find the link to that. I always just see the full EPS run with no individual members.
  7. Floydbuster
    Do you have links to these runs?
  8. Floydbuster
  9. Floydbuster
    I hope 95L becomes Fiona, even briefly. I don't like the name and I want to move on to Gaston.
  10. Floydbuster
    There almost seems to have been a shut off to the tropical wave train off Africa during July. You know how they come off far north, or hit a wall or shear, or fizzle into big ugly gyres? I didn't expect that pattern and I'm surprised it occurred. If they were moving faster and further south, they'd have a chance. Like the wave off Africa now, it seems to be stuck. What the hell is that about? Why isn't it progressing west at 15 mph?
  11. Floydbuster
    I'm surprised the models are not more enthusiastic with the wave that just left Africa.
  12. Floydbuster
    I'm expecting Western Caribbean activity in October. These youngsters are too spoiled. Some years have October storms like Keith or Lili. These spoiled hurricane trackers are used to Greek crap like Hurricane Zylor by September 25th.
  13. Floydbuster
    If we get Earl, then Fiona, Gaston and Hermine all off Africa...one of them is gonna break through west eventually.
  14. Floydbuster
    I'm still most interested in the wave leaving Africa right now.
  15. Floydbuster
    I would watch the wave leaving Africa in a day or two. The long-range GEFS like it as a west runner.
  16. Floydbuster
    Earl is now expected to be atleast a Cat 3, so we'll probably be outpacing 2013 with a major cane atleast.
  17. Floydbuster
    You guys are being way too harsh. I honestly think we've been spoiled by more August activity than I was used to tracking when I was a kid/teen. This time in 2001, we had crap. But we still ended up having Cat 4 Iris and Cat 4 Michelle. This time in 2002, we were still weeks away from Hurricane Isidore and Hurricane Lili. I really think September 15-October 15th will be crucial. If that time is dead, then we can put a fork in it.
  18. Floydbuster
    Here's a video on the tropics, as well as the active Pacific. https://youtu.be/5Yxx_FvKkOg
  19. Floydbuster
    I still think Earl could become a hurricane after five days as it moves further north.
  20. Floydbuster
    Meh. Technically September 10th is the peak. I tracked Hurricane Georges '98 which didn't form until September 15th. Hurricane Keith 2000 was a Cat 4 off Belize while we had two Cape Verde Hurricanes (Isaac and Joyce) on October 1st. Hurricane Iris 2001 was the first week of October.
  21. Floydbuster
    Looks tightly coiled. Gonna reach 90-100 mph for sure.
  22. Floydbuster
    What is so amusing is that we were literally 3/0/0 on the morning of September 1st, and within the next week between this and 91L, we could technically be sitting at 5/2/2 in just seven days. I think both Danielle and 91L have a slight chance to reach Category 3 strength as they churn out to sea.
  23. Floydbuster
    I think 91L needs closer watching.
  24. Floydbuster
    This thing looks fantastic tonight compared to the last two days.
  25. Floydbuster
    1988 also had Hurricane Joan, a Cat 4 into Nicaragua in October, 2001 had Hurricane Iris strike Belize as a devastating Cat 4 in October, and 2002 gave us Cat 4 Lili which struck Louisiana as a minimal hurricane in October. I always think of those seasons as "two storm seasons". Gilbert/Joan, Iris/Michelle, Isidore/Lili. That tells me we will likely have October or even November hurricanes this year.
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