Floydbuster

Potential vorticity.

I love Windspeed's input and we go back a long time, but I just realized he uses the acronym "PV" quite a bit.

Here's my video on Ida tonight for anyone interested https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u5lMmPctbbI

If we are reaching for reasons to inhibit strengthening, we could have a real serious hurricane on our hands.

12Z GFS has landfall in Louisiana at 932 mb.

Yeah I think we'd be looking at a Monday/Monday night/early Tuesday morning landfall.

Lt. Dan and Forrest country is getting absolutely decimated over and over. These storms have been avoiding Houston and New Orleans by pure luck.

We could always hope for a Bret '99 situation, where maybe it strikes a very sparsely populated region like Padre Island or something. But that would have to pin the needle on the thread just right.

Waking up this morning to more disturbing model trends. The GFS has now consistently shown run after run, 99L becoming a major hurricane landfall in the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast region. The EURO also shows 99L becoming a significant storm, and shows another powerful Cape Verde hurricane approaching the Caribbean in about a week. The EURO has also shown this for a few runs now. I'm reminded of when Harvey was nothing more than a wave in the Caribbean, yet models began consistently showing a major hurricane approaching the Texas coast. We could have a problem here.

Right but I'm talking about Cape Verdes as well.

I'm surprised the hype wasn't even more than it was, to be honest. I think that Henri's biggest issue was the northerly shear being stronger than the models predicted from Friday night through most of Saturday. The way Henri looked Saturday morning on visible was reminiscent of Bob 1991 right when that storm cranked to 115 mph. Had Henri strengthened into a Cat 2 or even Cat 3, despite weakening, it would have been far worse. Thankfully that didn't occur.

I think we will see a few fish storms, but one or two may slide under the radar. Think 1998. We had several out to sea (Hurricanes Danielle, Ivan, Jeanne, Karl, Lisa) but Hurricane Georges slipped under the radar.

That 12ZEURO shows "Ida" becoming a hurricane out to sea, "Julian" becoming a major hurricane slamming the middle TX coast, and "Kate" as a hurricane spinning west towards the Lesser Antilles. We shall see.

I'm surprised by the rain rates over New Jersey and Western Long Island.

Video Update on Henri https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J7xlKdIPlI8

Anyone got an estimate on time of landfall?

Agree but the last two hours have shown a definite west component to that.

Midnight Video Update on Henri https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5aVZc9n4Uo

Looking slightly more impressive on satellite the last hour.

I'm surprised Henri doesn't have more hype. To me, a minimal hurricane in New England is like a major hurricane in Florida or the Gulf.

Quick video update on Henri https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rUBabTsQpso

Midnight Video on Henri https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tbEsSU22fls

This is gonna be a much nastier hit than most in Mexico were likely prepared for. Hope they hunker down!

Outflow is fanning out nicely on the northeast side. Looks like the shear has decreased alot.