Floydbuster

Here's an 11:30pm video update on PTC 6

Look at that beautiful anti-cyclone right over the top of it.

I definitely think we could see a tropical storm out of this. The longer-range ensembles seem to like the wave leaving Africa this week as a potential Caribbean cruiser and much stronger. We're getting closer to the active times for sure.

I'm kinda surprised that the NHC is so liberal with development. I'm not convinced anything will come of either area of interest. I'm also not impressed with the long-range models but they seem to be awful on genesis. Two years ago, the long-range GFS a few days out showed a sunny beautiful day in Abaco Island when it actuality there was a 180 mph hurricane overhead. Last year, the models showed nothing of a 90 mph Hurricane Hanna slamming into Texas. I have little faith with the forecast models when it comes to genesis.

Interesting as the last two storms named "Fred" in 2009 and 2015, were far, far out in the Eastern Atlantic near the Cape Verdes. Hurricane Fred - 2009 Hurricane Fred - 2015

I'm intrigued for Texas.

Disturbing that nearly every blob hits the United States.

Interesting discussion. I was reading about "return periods" for intense hurricanes here: https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/2007JCLI1772.1 They make an interesting discussion about the rarity of a sub-900 mb landfall in America, using the 1935 Labor Day Storm as their example. Using their models, we should be coming up on a sub-900 mb U.S. landfall within the next decade or two. I can definitely imagine a tightly-coiled pinhole eye sloshing ashore in Padre Island. Hurricane Anita 1977 comes to mind as a very close call. Without extra push from the high pressure to it's north, Anita would have made landfall as a 175 mph Category 5 in South Texas.

I don't get the Guillermo reference?

I never thought I'd become an old-fogey to where I actually believe we name too much or retire too much.

This weather has been awful and depressing. I feel like I live in an old Soviet town.

Don't post too many videos. They'll end up naming the Upper level low "Fred".

I try. I will say this year I think Florida may be smacked pretty hard. I tend to notice that seasons with abnormally cold springs here in Ohio result in disastrous major hurricane landfalls in Florida. 2004 and 2017 come to mind.

New Video on Hurricane Elsa https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4Czm7j8iE0

Doesn't look like a hurricane, but it definitely looked good earlier. Still better looking than Hurricane Barry 2019.

I think Elsa landfalls further east. I'm gonna guess well south of the big bend.

Thanks. Elsa is looking more stacked tonight.

I feel bad for the NHC. They keep saying no change in strength and Elsa keeps ruining their forecast critiques.

12pm Video Update on Hurricane Elsahttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5bZxHppw2gw

Was just gonna say this. What the heck happened to it?

Those waves are pumping off Africa pretty impressively for July 2nd.

I'm surprised the NHC was still as conservative. I'm typically conservative with intensity as well because of so many storms fizzling in the past, but Elsa is impressing me tonight.