I was thinking the other day about return periods for hurricanes. I know there is no precise basis, but they seem to have some clear factors in their favor.
A Cat 4/5 U.S. landfall only seems to occur 1-3 times per decade.
1880s - '86 Indianola (155 mph - 925 mb) 1890s - '93 Chenier Louisiana (135 mph - 948 mb) '98 Georgia (135 mph - 938 mb) 1900s - '00 Galveston (140 mph - 936 mb) 1910s - '15 Galveston (135 mph - 940 mb) '16 Texas (135 mph - 932 mb) '19 Keys (150 mph - 927 mb) 1920s - '26 Great Miami (145 mph - 930 mb) - '28 Okeechobee (145 mph - 929 mb) 1930s - '32 Freeport (150 mph - 935 mb) '35 Labor Day (185 mph - 892 mb) 1940s - '45 Florida (135 mph - 949 mb) '47 Florida (135 mph - 943 mb) '48 Florida (135 mph - 940 mb) '49 Florida (135 mph - 954 mb) 1950s - '50 King (135 mph - 955 mb) '54 Hazel (135 mph - 938 mb) 1960s - Donna Carla Camille 1970s - (Likely Celia 1970) 1980s - Hugo 1990s - Andrew 2000s - Charley 2010s - TBD So pretty much one a decade, with the 1940s being the exception with four Cat 4 landfalls. But in reality, Cat 4 or 5 winds have only struck U.S. coastlines five times in the last fifty years (Camille, likely Celia, Hugo, Andrew and Charley).
Now we know Cat 5 landfalls are even more rare than Cat 4s, so let's break down the landfalls of Category 5 storms in the U.S.
1935 to Camille: 34 years
Camille to Andrew: 23 years
So the median number would mean on average, a Cat 5 strikes the U.S. every 28.5 years.
So technically, our next Cat 5 landfall should occur in the year 2020 give or take four or five years.
However, before 2020 comes and Hurricane Cristobal or Edouard joins the record books, let's try and extrapolate backwards. If we go back from 1935's landfall 23-34 years, you wind up in 1901-1912, pretty damn close to the 1900 Galveston or 1919 Keys, which were only 10-15 mph away from Cat 5 as per re-analysis.
Go back 28 years from the 1919 storm's 150 mph Key West strike, and you wind up in 1891, pretty close to the 1886 Indianola Texas landfall of 155 mph and 925 mb, a hair-splitting Cat 4/5 landfall.
Just thought I'd throw out the likelihood that we will most likely see a landfall of a 150 mph+ storm in the U.S. within the next few years.