Floydbuster

Irma may or may not achieve Cat 4 again. The pressure being in the low 930s and the core still being tight could allow her to make a run at Cat 4 near or over the Keys. Nevertheless, a tremendously dangerous hurricane.

The Caribbean wave is now Invest 90L

This year's name list is the infamous 1999/2005 one. Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harvey Irma Jose Katia Lee Maria Nate Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney First time the name "Irma" is on the list, having replaced Hurricane Irene of 2011. Some fun facts: 16 names have never been used: Rene Rose Sally Sam Teddy Teresa Valerie Van Vicky Victor Virginie William Wendy Wilfred Wanda Walter The letter "V" is the only letter to have zero names retired from the Atlantic name lists. Some names are on their third replacement since the lists were created in 1979: Alicia - Allison - Andrea Marilyn - Michelle - Melissa Isidore - Ike - Isaias Elena - Erika - Elsa Juan - Joaquin - Julian Ivan - Igor - Ian Iris - Ingrid - Imelda Mitch - Matthew - Martin Several names have made at least one or more serious runs at "retirement". Bret 1999 - Cat 4 storm that struck South TX as major hurricane Emily 1987 - Major hurricane into Hispaniola Emily 1993 - Major hurricane that impacted NC Emily 2005 - Cat 4 hurricane in Yucatan Peninsula Bertha 1996 - Damaging hurricane for NC Kate 1985 - Damaging Nov hurricane for FL Bonnie 1998 - Damaging hurricane for NC Gordon 1994 - Killed thousands in Caribbean Needless to say, I myself am quite tired of seeing Emily on the hurricane name list. I believe all three storms named Emily, especially 2005, warranted retirement. I also can never think of a Hurricane Bret, Bertha, Bonnie, Gordon or Kate the same way after those past memorable storms.

Worst snow yet here in Stow. The video lighting makes it appear less worse than it is. video-1489532137.mp4

I swear, it still looks like you can see the grass to some extent. It has snowed since I last posted, but not too much. Maybe 2'' since the last six hours.

Yeah I'm near Stow and still no precipitation at all as of 3:35am.

Here in Southern Summit County...nothing yet. Looks very clear outside. If it doesn't deliver decently, folks will call this one a bust.

I was just thinking about this storm tonight. I remembered it was around May of 2004 and it was a derecho. I was a Freshman in HS at the time, and on the weekends, my father would pick me up to spend a couple of days at his home. I was in Northern Summit County and remember getting into his car just as the EBS was going off on the radio. Our local news channels had shown a tower cam view of downtown Cleveland as this giant swirling cloud crashed down into the city. Straight line winds, heavy rains, but all very fast. Within minutes, the cloud actually struck the vehicle my father and I were in. I could see clouds on our windshield. It was intense. Encountered lots of downed trees in the road on the way south.

Jeez...the long-range GFS shows a 907 mb Hurricane.

Invest 99L must be watched very carefully by residents of the Leeward Islands.

The dominant ridging in the Atlantic this year makes me concerned about Cape Verde systems becoming more west-runners than models would seem to indicate. TD-6 (Fiona) will likely eventually never threaten land except perhaps Bermuda, however, I have a feeling the increasing African monsoon will soon create an amount of storms and hurricanes in the next 6 weeks or so, and some way well run west. Of course the dreaded track is the Andrew/Frances/Ike track. Tugging northwest towards a weakness, and then shunted back due west strengthening towards land.

I was thinking the other day about return periods for hurricanes. I know there is no precise basis, but they seem to have some clear factors in their favor. A Cat 4/5 U.S. landfall only seems to occur 1-3 times per decade. 1880s - '86 Indianola (155 mph - 925 mb) 1890s - '93 Chenier Louisiana (135 mph - 948 mb) '98 Georgia (135 mph - 938 mb) 1900s - '00 Galveston (140 mph - 936 mb) 1910s - '15 Galveston (135 mph - 940 mb) '16 Texas (135 mph - 932 mb) '19 Keys (150 mph - 927 mb) 1920s - '26 Great Miami (145 mph - 930 mb) - '28 Okeechobee (145 mph - 929 mb) 1930s - '32 Freeport (150 mph - 935 mb) '35 Labor Day (185 mph - 892 mb) 1940s - '45 Florida (135 mph - 949 mb) '47 Florida (135 mph - 943 mb) '48 Florida (135 mph - 940 mb) '49 Florida (135 mph - 954 mb) 1950s - '50 King (135 mph - 955 mb) '54 Hazel (135 mph - 938 mb) 1960s - Donna Carla Camille 1970s - (Likely Celia 1970) 1980s - Hugo 1990s - Andrew 2000s - Charley 2010s - TBD So pretty much one a decade, with the 1940s being the exception with four Cat 4 landfalls. But in reality, Cat 4 or 5 winds have only struck U.S. coastlines five times in the last fifty years (Camille, likely Celia, Hugo, Andrew and Charley). Now we know Cat 5 landfalls are even more rare than Cat 4s, so let's break down the landfalls of Category 5 storms in the U.S. 1935 to Camille: 34 years Camille to Andrew: 23 years So the median number would mean on average, a Cat 5 strikes the U.S. every 28.5 years. So technically, our next Cat 5 landfall should occur in the year 2020 give or take four or five years. However, before 2020 comes and Hurricane Cristobal or Edouard joins the record books, let's try and extrapolate backwards. If we go back from 1935's landfall 23-34 years, you wind up in 1901-1912, pretty damn close to the 1900 Galveston or 1919 Keys, which were only 10-15 mph away from Cat 5 as per re-analysis. Go back 28 years from the 1919 storm's 150 mph Key West strike, and you wind up in 1891, pretty close to the 1886 Indianola Texas landfall of 155 mph and 925 mb, a hair-splitting Cat 4/5 landfall. Just thought I'd throw out the likelihood that we will most likely see a landfall of a 150 mph+ storm in the U.S. within the next few years.

As more knowledgeable in hurricanes than tornadoes...how does the Outbreak of 2011 rank compared to the Outbreak of '74?

The huge dry slot is keeping Ohio out of this one...but I can't remember seeing winds like this since the Spring/Summer of 2003 during the day after day durechoes that moved through. A few minutes ago my power flickered and it sounded like something slammed in my house. I heard some snapping of trees in my backyard. Sustained winds 35 mph...recent gust to 51 mph here. Straight-line 30 mph.