Floydbuster

Because when I thought the ridging would break down during Frances and Ivan and Dean and Felix and Ike and Irma...the ridging was stronger than the models depicted. So when the models showed ridging so strong Dorian got to the panhandle, I thought "Perhaps they're underestimating again and Dorian will head even further west than that."

Most of the hurricane seasons I tracked as a kid or teen wouldn't have activity until late September and October. Hurricane Keith October 2000, Hurricane Iris October 2001, Hurricane Lili October 2003, ect ect. If the climate models are correct, we could have some activity during this time.

I can't believe the failure of computer models this past month. I'm not just speaking about this Dorian situation, I'm speaking about how 10 days ago the models showed us ending August with 0 tropical storms, and in the last ten days, we had two storms, one hurricane, and one hurricane of 150 mph bearing down the Bahamas. I almost think that "phantom storms" on the old models 10 years ago atleast gave us an idea of upcoming activity. I remember the long-range GFS continuously showed a long-tracked hurricane coming off Africa for weeks. One would hit New England, one would hit Mexico, one would hit Miami. That phantom on the model eventually became Hurricane Dean.

Yeah the EURO and GFS Legacy are showing a tropical wave interacting with disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean taking a track similar to Dolly '08 or Harvey and becoming a Western Gulf hurricane in the next 7-10 days.

Yeah, the reason the GFS models bomb this into a beast is because of an amazing amount of outflow channels it gets near the Bahamas. One off to the north, one to the southeast into an upper level low, and another one into an upper low feature in the Gulf of Mexico.

GFS makes this a strong hurricane but recurves just before it would impact the Southeast U.S.

Please stay west! I have a Myrtle Beach vacation this upcoming weekend

I'm listening to the Police/Fire/EMS dispatch and some of the addresses of severe/catastrophic damage are right in downtown, literally within 1000-2000 feet of the Lewis & Clark Monument, Missouri State Capitol building dome, and the Missouri State Penitentiary.

Per Twitter, some residents saying that the twister that went through downtown Jefferson City is a "Joplin-style" event. Sounds dire.

Well, according to the re-analysis project, there are several Category 4 storms close to Category 5 strength at landfall: Pre-records: 1846 Hurricane may have been at Cat 5 intensity near Florida Keys. August 1856 - "Last Island" - 150 mph/934 mb August 1886 - "Indianola" - 150 mph/925 mb

I have to agree. The lack of cold fronts and troughs also contributed to Hurricane Florence's unlikely westward progression from Africa northwest into the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, to an eventual landfall in North Carolina.

I suspect Hurricane Isidore (2002) peaked as a 115 kt Category 4 hurricane. Operationally, it never got higher than 110 kt, despite an astounding satellite appearance, high dvorak numbers, and a pressure of 934 mb. But I suspect it reached Category 4 strength prior to landfall in the Yucatan.

Still very little. It's dark but I can see small flakes falling at a good clip but at first glance outside, it's still calm here in Stow. Very strange. We had a couple inches but nowhere near how bad it was between 2pm and 5pm.

Momentarily, the snow has completely stopped here in Stow. Not even blowing. Just nothing. Calm.

I work in Summit County, I'm considering calling off if it's too bad. I don't have to make that decision for a few hours. How heavy will the snow be around 3-3:30pm, ya think?

Worst snow yet here in Stow. The video lighting makes it appear less worse than it is. video-1489532137.mp4

I swear, it still looks like you can see the grass to some extent. It has snowed since I last posted, but not too much. Maybe 2'' since the last six hours.

Yeah I'm near Stow and still no precipitation at all as of 3:35am.

Here in Southern Summit County...nothing yet. Looks very clear outside. If it doesn't deliver decently, folks will call this one a bust.

As more knowledgeable in hurricanes than tornadoes...how does the Outbreak of 2011 rank compared to the Outbreak of '74?

The huge dry slot is keeping Ohio out of this one...but I can't remember seeing winds like this since the Spring/Summer of 2003 during the day after day durechoes that moved through. A few minutes ago my power flickered and it sounded like something slammed in my house. I heard some snapping of trees in my backyard. Sustained winds 35 mph...recent gust to 51 mph here. Straight-line 30 mph.