Floydbuster
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Everything posted by Floydbuster
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They're talking about the high shear on the long-range GFS. But some of the climate models show an abnormal lowering of wind shear across the entire basin in 14 days. Scary-lowering.
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I just hear alot of season cancel talk on other weather sites and I don't see any evidence of that.
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It's gonna pop. People on different message boards are saying "things look quiet". Trust me, just wait. This is one of the most favorable patterns of shear, sea surface temperatures, and MJO I've ever seen for late August through September. It's gonna blow.
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I actually think we might well hit the Greek alphabet. That's something usually reserved for true weather weenies...but Dr. Klotzbach's forecast would bring us to Gamma, I believe.
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That wave is up to 60%. Stewart says it's getting better organized, which it clearly is.
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Yeah. We don't get many fake storms anymore. In fact, I'm surprised the EURO and CMC haven't latched on yet, but lately the EURO has been disappointing with genesis.
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The long-range GFS has now consistently shown a significant hurricane in the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico in the 300+ hrs range for several runs now.
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Well, I was too late with the timing. Came sooner than I expected. Now the question becomes...is 92L that fish storm before the match drops in the gasoline?
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Still an amazingly tight core considering how far north this system is.
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Video update on Douglas, I really need to spruce up my pronunciation of Hawaiian islands
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Crazy tight core for this far north.
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Too bad the Bahamas system won't waste a name so we don't have to risk hearing the media butchering "Isaias" for two weeks.
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At this rate our September long-tracker could be named "Nana".
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I think we may have the "I" storm from this wave, and then after whatever it does (and it may do quite a bit in 7-10 days), we will then have a lull until mid-late August.
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Don't trust those weaknesses the model keeps teasing as the system nears the Bahamas. It's been back and forth with them.
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Here's the wave leaving African soon that the EURO shows as a Caribbean hurricane and the CMC shows as a Puerto Rico/Bahamas/US hurricane down the road.
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2020 East & Central Pacific Hurricane Season
Floydbuster replied to jgf's topic in Tropical Headquarters
NHC went with 80 mph. I would have guessed atleast 105 mph, maybe even higher. -
The EURO, CMC and some long-range models show the wave leaving Africa in the next 24 hrs become a significant hurricane and a potential ominous threat for the U.S. in 7-10 days.
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Matt, I'm assuming this would be "Hanna" because 99L is well on it's way to becoming named first.
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Yeah the CMC has the wave leaving Africa in 24-36 hrs becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean Sea in the longer range.
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I know the model is to be taken with an enormous grain of salt, but the long, long long range CFS model doesn't show any storms making U.S. landfall the entire hurricane season. LOL
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Absolutely, and they're moistening up the basin before the match gets dropped. I was just speaking of the irony. We have non-tropical systems in off-season in the North Atlantic that look better than some tropical systems in July. (Hurricane Barry 2019?)
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I find it amusing we have three tropical lemons in late July over boiling waters that won't do anything, but in cold May north Atlantic waters, we'll get like 10 wasted named storms.
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Yeah I think August 20th or so.
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We usually get a few duds or misfires before the action really begins. Think 2017 when we had Hurricane Franklin, a Cat 1 into Mexico, and then the fish-storm Hurricane Gert. Then it went off after the solar eclipse with Harvey, Irma, Jose, Katia, Lee, Maria, Nate and Ophelia. Literally a splooge of six major hurricanes, and two other nasty ones. Same was true in 2007. I don't know who remembers but we had a few strong African waves almost develop, but fizzle, only to moisten the future environment for Hurricane Dean's monster path through the Caribbean. Don't be surprised if we get a 90 mph hurricane or something by mid-August around the Caribbean/Gulf, then a Cat-1 or 2 fish storm off Africa before the powder keg is lit.
