Floydbuster

Sadly, he was caught too off guard and won't be chasing Otis. Damn shame, too. I can't imagine, but like I told him on Twitter, it's Mother Nature's way of keeping him humble.

000 WTPZ63 KNHC 250400 TCUEP3 Hurricane Otis Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182023 1100 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE OTIS STILL STRENGTHENING AS IT NEARS THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... Recent satellite data indicate that Otis continues to strengthen. The maximum sustained winds are now estimated to be near 165 mph (270 km/h) with higher gusts. Otis is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Otis is forecast to remain a category 5 hurricane through landfall overnight. SUMMARY OF 1100 PM CDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3 99.7W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES

Josh Morgerman said that he was caught off guard and wouldn't be able to chase Otis. But he's been silent for over 8 hrs on Twitter...and I wonder if he did a quickie and is headed down there. It's possible, he's one of the best.

I just find it hard to believe that a major metropolitan city of one million people wouldn't have a radar site in 2023.

I thought Acapulco had a radar site, but I've been searching too and unable to find it.

Ditto on the Western Caribbean. The ensembles of the EURO and GEFS continue to show low pressure around the first week of November.

Holy cow look at that symmetry!

After Philippe made it all the way to Barbuda, I became slightly more bullish on Tammy making it further west. I often find myself a little more bullish in general with regards to October hurricanes. I've seen many systems struggle until they near the Caribbean and then find a more safe harbor for development. Iris 2001, Lili 2002, Tomas 2010, etc.

I thought the name of this thread was a little imbecilic anyways. I knew this could be a hurricane and could get close to the islands. I don't know why so many were so immediately negative on development chances. The wave was strong, model guidance supported development, and we've had 20 named storms this hurricane season.

Quite a nasty lashing for Barbuda, still an obvious far cry from Irma

Hurricane Tammy has strengthened a bit up to 80 mph as the core gets close to Martinique and Dominica.

Seems like four scenarios thus far: 1. Strong major hurricane (like Lee) taking track north of islands 2. Strong major hurricane striking islands 3. Weaker storm/hurricane (Like Nigel and Philippe) taking track north of islands 4. Weaker storm (Like Bret) striking islands

Wow do those EURO ensembles make Invest 94L a monster hurricane in the Caribbean.

As long as Philippe dissipates by the Caribbean and doesn't bring some kind of vorticity into the Northwest Caribbean.

I suspect we still have more activity to come.

This will be designated Tropical Storm Nigel at 11pm.

It's still amazing how far Lee made it considering it developed so far east and became so intense. All the way off Maine is pretty far west for a Cape Verde hurricane.

Still would watch the waves that progress west towards the Caribbean. I remember Hurricane Iris in October 2001 came from a heavily sheared wave in the eastern and central Atlantic that eventually made it into the Caribbean Sea.

Video Update on Lee https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_fiR9IOZnBE For how bad Lee looks on satellite, recon still shows this is a very powerful hurricane. Easy 100 mph and large.

Many do, but some show a much closer Bahamas approach than Lee ever came to. And now the 12Z GFS has a New England landfall in the long-range. Definitely something to watch regardless.