yoda

So far, pretty nice 18z suite across the board. 18z NAM/18z 3km NAM/18z RGEM/18z ICON show 2-3" across the majority of the LWX CWA. Some higher amounts in N MD (up to 5" on the 18z ICON) and 4-8" on the 18z NAM (for i95 corridor from Manassas into NE MD)

2-4/3-5

18z RGEM 2-4" of snow in N VA/C MD, including DC and BWI metros. Also drops up to a tenth inch of ice on top Tuesday along i95 corridor

Correction... 4-9" through 78

18z NAM goes for 3-5" from around Prince William County into NE MD... including BWI and DC metro

Interestingly, 18z 3km NAM likes SOUTH of DC for 2-3"... from CHO to EZF into S MD through 56

18z NAM has 1-3" in a DC-BWI-DOV triangle jackpot region through 54

18z 3km NAM looks nice between 17z and 18z in DC metro tomorrow afternoon

LWX afternoon AFD Monday will start out dry outside of the Alleghenies where upslope snow showers are expected. High temperatures will reach the low to mid 30s for most of the area with higher elevations staying in the 20s. Shortwave energy aloft will lead to a chance of light snow areawide Monday afternoon, with accumulations ranging from 0.5-1.5" outside the Alleghenies where higher accumulations are possible. We will continue to monitor as there is a good bit of model discrepancy with this system. Low temperatures Monday night will fall into the 20s for most with higher elevations dipping into the teens. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A broad area of lower heights will persist across much of the CONUS over the next week. Over time, ridging builds near the West Coast, and downstream blocking may develop near the Canadian Maritimes. At the surface, Arctic high pressure will build over the central to eastern CONUS while multiple waves of low pressure pass from the Mid- South toward the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. One wave of low pressure will likely pass to the south Monday night into Tuesday. Mid/upper-level forcing coupled with modest moisture should result in the development of some light snow across at least parts of the area. Guidance continues to gradually come into better agreement on a light, jet-induced snow event well northwest of a weak and progressive surface low offshore. This is not a traditional or classic setup for widespread significant snow, but the timing of any accumulating snow coupled with very cold temperatures with the Tuesday morning commute could prove treacherous. Additionally, it has been about two years since the DC Metro saw more than an inch of snow, which may also magnify any potential impacts.

Friday morning

I wouldn't mind the 12z UKIE... 1-3/2-4

Well I meant more Matt's post about the 00z GFS tonight

It will be one simple post -- NEXT

TPV looks a bit more stretched out and westward at h5... and energy on back side is more NW and stronger on the 18z RGEM at 84 compared to the 18z NAM at 84

18z RGEM says its snowing in DC metro at teh end of its run... 1-3"

3pm AFD from LWX mentions end of next week as a more "traditional threat" .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Below normal temperatures and the threat for wintry precipitation headline the medium range. There is medium confidence in well below normal temperatures and dangerously cold wind chills, but the threat of snow or wintry precipitation remains highly uncertain. Anomalous ridging over the Polar regions of the Northern Hemisphere will force Arctic air southward across much of the CONUS for most of next week. The brunt of the cold will be on our doorstep locally early in the week, before spreading over the rest of the area by the middle of next week. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure - driven by a shortwave currently trapped in a cyclonic gyre over NW Canada - will likely induce an area of low pressure that will track from the Mid-South to near the Carolina or Mid-Atlantic Coast late Monday through early Wednesday. Exact timing remains uncertain, and timing of this wave with added energy from the Arctic intrusion will be crucial in determining the extent of any snow/wintry precip impacts across the Mid-Atlantic. Deterministic guidance has been attempting to come into somewhat better agreement, but the Euro (through 06z) remains a flatter/drier outlier. For this reason, ensemble means and probabilities have remained nearly steady from values 24 hours ago. As energy for this system ejects into the NW CONUS and is better sampled, guidance should get a better handle on the outcome over the next 1 to 2 days. Following this system, strong winds coupled with well below normal temperatures will likely result in wind chills in the single digits on either size of zero by early Wednesday morning, with even colder values over the higher terrain. Winds will abate a bit by Wednesday night into Thursday, though below normal temperatures will persist. By the end of next week, the aforementioned low will be absorbed in a developing cutoff near Newfoundland. This, coupled with ridging near the West Coast, and lower heights in between over the OH/TN Valley, are a more traditional setup for wintry weather locally. Therefore, the threat of wintry precipitation may re-appear by the end of next week. &&

3pm AFD from LWX .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Below normal temperatures and the threat for wintry precipitation headline the medium range. There is medium confidence in well below normal temperatures and dangerously cold wind chills, but the threat of snow or wintry precipitation remains highly uncertain. Anomalous ridging over the Polar regions of the Northern Hemisphere will force Arctic air southward across much of the CONUS for most of next week. The brunt of the cold will be on our doorstep locally early in the week, before spreading over the rest of the area by the middle of next week. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure - driven by a shortwave currently trapped in a cyclonic gyre over NW Canada - will likely induce an area of low pressure that will track from the Mid-South to near the Carolina or Mid-Atlantic Coast late Monday through early Wednesday. Exact timing remains uncertain, and timing of this wave with added energy from the Arctic intrusion will be crucial in determining the extent of any snow/wintry precip impacts across the Mid-Atlantic. Deterministic guidance has been attempting to come into somewhat better agreement, but the Euro (through 06z) remains a flatter/drier outlier. For this reason, ensemble means and probabilities have remained nearly steady from values 24 hours ago. As energy for this system ejects into the NW CONUS and is better sampled, guidance should get a better handle on the outcome over the next 1 to 2 days. Following this system, strong winds coupled with well below normal temperatures will likely result in wind chills in the single digits on either size of zero by early Wednesday morning, with even colder values over the higher terrain. Winds will abate a bit by Wednesday night into Thursday, though below normal temperatures will persist. By the end of next week, the aforementioned low will be absorbed in a developing cutoff near Newfoundland. This, coupled with ridging near the West Coast, and lower heights in between over the OH/TN Valley, are a more traditional setup for wintry weather locally. Therefore, the threat of wintry precipitation may re-appear by the end of next week. &&

Yup... CMC also showing a storm

108 is 994 inside benchmark

If we can stay on the right side... the B and W maps show a big hit

Looks like 06z Euro would have been a bit better if it went past 90... hopefully the ensembles are better

You mean this one? https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd